In other news, support for Scottish independence has hit 58% in a poll by Ipsos/MORI.
Brexiteers killed the UK. I don't blame Scotland (or Northern Ireland, either) for wanting to choose a brighter future.
If the Scottish think they can just leave the UK and join the EU, they're much dumber than the Brexiteers. Spain will never allow them in; they'll veto anything that lends credence to European independence movements. That said, the EU is very much to blame for this, due to their idiotic "Leave a light on" stance on Scotland. I guess other Eurozone nations now know that the penalty for voluntarily choosing to leave this """trade bloc""" is that the remaining nations will systemically undermine their integrity as sovereign nations. Funny-- you'd think that if leaving the EU were so disastrous, such high penalties wouldn't be necessary as a deterrent!
To be fair, the
actual "leave a light on" stunt at the European Parliament building was an act performed by outgoing Scottish MEPs and the Green/EFA group (which the SNP is a part of,) not the European Council, Commission, or officers of Parliament itself.
Plus, Spain won't block Scottish entry if their independence is the result of a
lawful independence referendum (i.e. one agreed with Westminster, like the one from 2014). The issue with Catalonia - which is the independence movement you're referring to - is that Spain sees their attempts to gain independence as
unlawful under the Spanish Constitution. Basically, so long as Scotland
follows the proper legal channels in attaining independence (which they argue Catalonia did not do,) they would not veto an application for membership from an independent Scotland.
If Westminster agrees to hold a referendum, grants a Section 30 order to allow one to be held, and the result is a vote for independence? No problem!
From my perspective (and keeping in mind I'm a dirty, ignorant American,) there are two bigger issues with Scottish independence than a ludicrous Spanish insta-veto of an EU membership application:
1. Westminster has said no, still says no, and will continue to say no. That means the "lawful" method of attaining independence, the one that would be necessary to enable a Scottish application for EU membership without a veto, is blocked so long as Westminster continues to say no. Sure, the SNP could attempt to hold a referendum anyway if they got a strong result in next year's Scottish Parliament elections - polling is pointing to that - but any such attempt would be struck down and, if they hold a Catalan-style referendum and proceed to proclaim a
UDI, would result in the EU dismissing any such application. Like with Catalonia, it would be seen by the EU as "an internal matter for the United Kingdom."
2. Independence supporters will point to the fact that in 2014, one of the talking points of the Better Together/No Thanks campaign was that the only way for Scotland to retain EU membership without interruption was by remaining in the UK, so with Brexit that is now off the table. They're right about that, but even if Scotland votes for independence in a mutually-agreed referendum, the accession process would still take years, during which there would need to be mechanisms and agreements in place to ensure the Scottish economy doesn't take a huge hit in the interim.
Just for reference, Estonia's accession process took
8.5 years: they applied in November 1995 and were formally admitted as a member on May 1, 2004. The process could take a shorter or longer period of time, but you're talking about a years-long wait regardless of how smooth the accession process is.
It's not up to me to decide, as I'm not a Scottish voter or resident. Some of the arguments supporting the unionist argument ("No EU membership!" "We'll treat Scotland with respect!") hold far, far, far less salience now, but the others still exist. Spain isn't one of them.
Poll
