Georgia's Very Own Megathread!

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fwiw I don't think the income tax will actually be eliminated, even if you have a Gov. (David) Perdue. Unless he's willing to go to war with the General Assembly over eliminating the income tax (he won't), it'll be quietly dropped as an idea in favor of more piecemeal cuts to the income tax. Considering the arm-twisting that was necessary back in 2015 to get the legislature to support a modest increase to the fuel tax just to support basic upkeep on our highway system, I think the bevy of budget cuts and tax/fee increases that would be necessary to support such a move would be nonstarters under the Gold Dome.

The fact that the House Appropriations Committee chair is opining about this should be a signal.

England said the state’s current mix of revenue – which mostly comes from the 5.75% income tax and 4% sales tax – has kept finances stable and allowed Georgia to annually balance its budget. Georgia has maintained a AAA bond rating for decades – meaning it can borrow money at the lowest interest rates - and bond-rating agencies often cite the revenue mix as one of the reasons why.

I don't think there will be an appetite for anything other than a continuation of piecemeal tax cuts, which has been SOP for the General Assembly for years.

Kemp (or Abrams, should Kemp be defeated in the primary) could use the proposal to paint his primary opponents as fiscally reckless, especially considering their lack of concrete plans on how they'd fill a $14+ billion hole as a result of eliminating the income tax. Not sure if that would have much sway with increasingly radicalized GOP primary voters, though - they probably don't care, and for all I know if they did they'd paint Kemp as a tax-and-spend liberal if he tried to criticize any income tax elimination proposal.

Besides, it's not like Georgia is a high-tax state to begin with. We have a low (very low by some metrics) tax burden per capita. As a Georgia taxpayer, I think this kind of proposal is a solution in search of a problem. From my perspective, there's no need to convert the state's revenue base to a more unstable regime based more heavily on sales taxes.

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Yeah, a fair number of voters here assume we use plurality voting for everything, when in reality it's only used for presidential races.

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There seems to be an intense focus on Gwinnett County this session.

- First, Board of Education districts. The BoE, which only recently flipped to a Dem majority, is poised to become nonpartisan if SB 369 becomes law. This legislation was originally tipped to be considered in the redistricting special session, but was pushed back owing to controversy that neither the (strongly majority-Dem) county delegation nor the (all-Dem) county commission were consulted.

In theory, this also goes against the wish of a strong majority of 2020 GOP primary voters, who voted in a 2020 advisory question to mandate partisan identification for BoE races (specifically Question 3 - "SHOULD CANDIDATES FOR BOARD OF EDUCATION BE REQUIRED TO DECLARE THEIR POLITICAL PARTY?" - which passed in Gwinnett 71.5-28.5). However, I doubt this will have any notable effect on the reelection prospects of the few remaining GOP legislators from Gwinnett.

- Next, county commission districts. Previously a GOP monopoly, the Dems flipped all the seats over the course of the 2018 and 2020 election cycles, transforming the commission into a Dem monopoly. The commission recently proposed new lines, but interestingly, the General Assembly (or at least the House) plans to impose their own lines via HB 873.



Under the GOP-proposed lines, the commission would likely be 4-1 Dem (down from 5-0 Dem currently), so overall Dem control of the commission is not threatened, as the chairmanship (elected countywide) and districts 1-3 are all safe Dem. However, district 4* would likely be an R gain: on the proposed lines, the district was Loeffler+6-7 or so. Now, as the tentacles of blue Gwinnett spread north, it's quite possible district 4* would only be GOP for a short time, as I could see the Dems winning back the seat in either 2026 or, if the pro-Dem trends in Gwinnett slow down, 2030.

* The map above denotes this as "001", but the legislation refers to this as "district 4". I'm going off the legislation.

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(snip)

Both pieces of legislation are on track to become law; HB 873 (Gwinnett County Commission) was signed by Gov. Kemp, and SB 369 (county board of education) has passed the General Assembly largely on party lines.

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In other news:

https://twitter.com/SellsBryan/status/1555539790422052865

I do think this will be appealed, but it's unusual that we elect district-based commissioners on a statewide basis. For the record, the Commission has had a GOP monopoly (5-0) since 2006.

Based on the current district map, I always thought the breakdown in a purely district-based system would be 4-1 R (district 3, which is Fulton, DeKalb, Clayton, and Rockdale counties, would be something like D+40-45), but I was surprised to learn Warnock actually carried district 2 (50.85% D) and came within 5 points in district 5 (52% R). You could elect 2 Dems on the current map (in the right conditions, that is; there's the political environment and down-ballot dropoff to worry about).

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In other news:

https://twitter.com/SellsBryan/status/1555539790422052865

I do think this will be appealed, but it's unusual that we elect district-based commissioners on a statewide basis. For the record, the Commission has had a GOP monopoly (5-0) since 2006.

Based on the current district map, I always thought the breakdown in a purely district-based system would be 4-1 R (district 3, which is Fulton, DeKalb, Clayton, and Rockdale counties, would be something like D+40-45), but I was surprised to learn Warnock actually carried district 2 (50.85% D) and came within 5 points in district 5 (52% R). You could elect 2 Dems on the current map (in the right conditions, that is; there's the political environment and down-ballot dropoff to worry about).

As expected, the ruling is being appealed.

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Quick note: The two Public Service Commission elections scheduled this year have been cancelled.

https://twitter.com/rahulbali/status/1560770567854333954

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Still of the belief that Abrams will finish 1-3 points behind Warnock in final margin. All the polls showing him doing 6-10 points better than her earlier this year were ridiculous. Nevertheless, there has been a consistent pattern in favor of incumbency in GA this cycle (Kemp and Warnock). With that being said...

Abrams should hope that Warnock wins by at least 2 points and clears runoff territory - because if GA suddenly has to have two consecutive runoffs (remember that state runoffs are in December, and federal runoffs are in January), the concept of voter confusion and fatigue comes into play. Furthermore, I'm betting that if Warnock wins by less than 2 points - runoff or no - Kemp scores a narrow majority in November just like he did in 2018. If Warnock can win by 3-4 points, then there's a decent chance the electorate is favorable enough to drag Abrams across the 50% threshold barely (or perhaps force an exclusive state-level runoff where she comes in first in November by a small margin).

Actually, one of the changes of that state voting law overhaul last year is that federal runoffs are now held in December, not January, so hypothetical Warnock/Walker and Kemp/Abrams runoffs would happen simultaneously.

In instances where no candidate receives a majority of the votes cast, a run-off primary, special primary runoff, run-off election, or special election runoff between the candidates receiving the two highest numbers of votes shall be held. Unless such date is postponed by a court order, such r̶u̶n̶-̶o̶f̶f̶ ̶p̶r̶i̶m̶a̶r̶y̶,̶ ̶s̶p̶e̶c̶i̶a̶l̶ ̶p̶r̶i̶m̶a̶r̶y̶ ̶r̶u̶n̶o̶f̶f̶,̶ ̶r̶u̶n̶-̶o̶f̶f̶ ̶e̶l̶e̶c̶t̶i̶o̶n̶,̶ ̶o̶r̶ ̶s̶p̶e̶c̶i̶a̶l̶ ̶e̶l̶e̶c̶t̶i̶o̶n̶ runoff shall be held a̶s̶ ̶p̶r̶o̶v̶i̶d̶e̶d̶ ̶i̶n̶ ̶t̶h̶i̶s̶ ̶s̶u̶b̶s̶e̶c̶t̶i̶o̶n̶.̶ ̶

(̶2̶)̶ ̶I̶n̶ ̶t̶h̶e̶ ̶c̶a̶s̶e̶ ̶o̶f̶ ̶a̶ ̶r̶u̶n̶o̶f̶f̶ ̶f̶r̶o̶m̶ ̶a̶ ̶g̶e̶n̶e̶r̶a̶l̶ ̶p̶r̶i̶m̶a̶r̶y̶ ̶o̶r̶ ̶a̶ ̶s̶p̶e̶c̶i̶a̶l̶ ̶p̶r̶i̶m̶a̶r̶y̶ ̶o̶r̶ ̶s̶p̶e̶c̶i̶a̶l̶ ̶e̶l̶e̶c̶t̶i̶o̶n̶ ̶h̶e̶l̶d̶ ̶i̶n̶ ̶c̶o̶n̶j̶u̶n̶c̶t̶i̶o̶n̶ ̶w̶i̶t̶h̶ ̶a̶ ̶g̶e̶n̶e̶r̶a̶l̶ ̶p̶r̶i̶m̶a̶r̶y̶,̶ ̶t̶h̶e̶ ̶r̶u̶n̶o̶f̶f̶ ̶s̶h̶a̶l̶l̶ ̶b̶e̶ ̶h̶e̶l̶d̶ ̶o̶n̶ ̶t̶h̶e̶ ̶T̶u̶e̶s̶d̶a̶y̶ ̶o̶f̶ ̶t̶h̶e̶ ̶n̶i̶n̶t̶h̶ ̶w̶e̶e̶k̶ ̶f̶o̶l̶l̶o̶w̶i̶n̶g̶ ̶s̶u̶c̶h̶ ̶g̶e̶n̶e̶r̶a̶l̶ ̶p̶r̶i̶m̶a̶r̶y̶.̶

(̶3̶)̶ ̶I̶n̶ ̶t̶h̶e̶ ̶c̶a̶s̶e̶ ̶o̶f̶ ̶a̶ ̶r̶u̶n̶o̶f̶f̶ ̶f̶r̶o̶m̶ ̶a̶ ̶g̶e̶n̶e̶r̶a̶l̶ ̶e̶l̶e̶c̶t̶i̶o̶n̶ ̶f̶o̶r̶ ̶a̶ ̶f̶e̶d̶e̶r̶a̶l̶ ̶o̶f̶f̶i̶c̶e̶ ̶o̶r̶ ̶a̶ ̶r̶u̶n̶o̶f̶f̶ ̶f̶r̶o̶m̶ ̶a̶ ̶s̶p̶e̶c̶i̶a̶l̶ ̶p̶r̶i̶m̶a̶r̶y̶ ̶o̶r̶ ̶s̶p̶e̶c̶i̶a̶l̶ ̶e̶l̶e̶c̶t̶i̶o̶n̶ ̶f̶o̶r̶ ̶a̶ ̶f̶e̶d̶e̶r̶a̶l̶ ̶o̶f̶f̶i̶c̶e̶ ̶h̶e̶l̶d̶ ̶i̶n̶ ̶c̶o̶n̶j̶u̶n̶c̶t̶i̶o̶n̶ ̶w̶i̶t̶h̶ ̶a̶ ̶g̶e̶n̶e̶r̶a̶l̶ ̶e̶l̶e̶c̶t̶i̶o̶n̶,̶ ̶t̶h̶e̶ ̶r̶u̶n̶o̶f̶f̶ ̶s̶h̶a̶l̶l̶ ̶b̶e̶ ̶h̶e̶l̶d̶ ̶o̶n̶ ̶t̶h̶e̶ ̶T̶u̶e̶s̶d̶a̶y̶ ̶o̶f̶ ̶t̶h̶e̶ ̶n̶i̶n̶t̶h̶ ̶w̶e̶e̶k̶ ̶f̶o̶l̶l̶o̶w̶i̶n̶g̶ ̶s̶u̶c̶h̶ ̶g̶e̶n̶e̶r̶a̶l̶ ̶e̶l̶e̶c̶t̶i̶o̶n̶.̶

(̶4̶)̶ ̶I̶n̶ ̶t̶h̶e̶ ̶c̶a̶s̶e̶ ̶o̶f̶ ̶a̶ ̶r̶u̶n̶o̶f̶f̶ ̶f̶r̶o̶m̶ ̶a̶ ̶g̶e̶n̶e̶r̶a̶l̶ ̶e̶l̶e̶c̶t̶i̶o̶n̶ ̶f̶o̶r̶ ̶a̶n̶ ̶o̶f̶f̶i̶c̶e̶ ̶o̶t̶h̶e̶r̶ ̶t̶h̶a̶n̶ ̶a̶ ̶f̶e̶d̶e̶r̶a̶l̶ ̶o̶f̶f̶i̶c̶e̶ ̶o̶r̶ ̶a̶ ̶r̶u̶n̶o̶f̶f̶ ̶f̶r̶o̶m̶ ̶a̶ ̶s̶p̶e̶c̶i̶a̶l̶ ̶p̶r̶i̶m̶a̶r̶y̶ ̶o̶r̶ ̶s̶p̶e̶c̶i̶a̶l̶ ̶e̶l̶e̶c̶t̶i̶o̶n̶ ̶f̶o̶r̶ ̶a̶n̶ ̶o̶f̶f̶i̶c̶e̶ ̶o̶t̶h̶e̶r̶ ̶t̶h̶a̶n̶ ̶a̶ ̶f̶e̶d̶e̶r̶a̶l̶ ̶o̶f̶f̶i̶c̶e̶ ̶h̶e̶l̶d̶ ̶i̶n̶ ̶c̶o̶n̶j̶u̶n̶c̶t̶i̶o̶n̶ ̶w̶i̶t̶h̶ ̶a̶ ̶g̶e̶n̶e̶r̶a̶l̶ ̶e̶l̶e̶c̶t̶i̶o̶n̶,̶ ̶t̶h̶e̶ ̶r̶u̶n̶o̶f̶f̶ ̶s̶h̶a̶l̶l̶ ̶b̶e̶ ̶h̶e̶l̶d̶ on the twenty-eighth day after the day of holding the preceding general or special primary or general or special election.

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Just on a side note, several black radio stations in Atlanta have organized a town hall tonight at Clark Atlanta University, an HBCU. Warnock, Abrams, and Kemp will all be there:

https://twitter.com/NilesGApol/status/1577419687096635392

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Back to county redistricting: the majority-Dem Cobb County Commission will try to amend the commission district map passed by the General Assembly. The Commission cites the home rule provisions in the state constitution, allowing counties and municipalities to amend legislation pertaining to their specific jurisdiction (a "local bill").

Typically, redistricting for county and city governing bodies (commissions, school boards, etc.) is treated as local legislation and passed in coordination between local officials and the county's General Assembly delegation. However, for the most recent session the General Assembly opted to draw their own maps in a few (largely Dem-leaning) counties like Cobb and Gwinnett.

Under the new maps (and assuming Cobb is not successful in this maneuver) is that Cobb's Dem majority will be left untouched (3-2), but one Dem commissioner (Jerica Richardson) will be drawn out of her seat and another GOP district will be shored up. In Gwinnett, the Dem monopoly (5-0) will give way to a 4-1 majority for at least one or two terms, as one district was redrawn to be more Republican.

If Cobb is successful, the Commission will just pass the map originally proposed by the Dem-controlled General Assembly delegation, which was mostly a least-change map. I don't know if Gwinnett will try something similar, but given the time left before the midterm election, I don't think they will.

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David Ralston will not run for another term as Speaker in the state house:

https://twitter.com/rahulbali/status/1588567375065976832

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With the runoff behind us, Raffensperger will present three proposals to the General Assembly on the future of GA's voting system. According to The New York Times (the article doesn't appear to be paywalled):

Mr. Raffensperger said he would present three proposals to lawmakers. They include forcing large counties to open more early-voting locations to reduce hourslong lines like the ones that formed at many Metro Atlanta sites last week; lowering the threshold candidates must achieve to avoid a runoff to 45 percent from 50 percent; and instituting a ranked-choice instant-runoff system that would not require voters to come back to the polls again after the general election.

There is history for the "45% to avoid a runoff" rule: it was put in place by the conservadem-dominated General Assembly in the 1990s, but the now GOP-controlled legislature returned it to 50% in the mid-2000s. Personally, I'd rather keep it at 50%.

All in for the IRV proposal, but we'll see if any of it passes.

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A newly-introduced bipartisan bill, HB 200, would allow cities to adopt and use instant-runoff voting for municipal elections. The bill gets its first subcommittee hearing this Tuesday.

From the AJC:

“This is a starting point as a test if cities want to do it,” said state Rep. Joseph Gullett, a Republican from Dallas who introduced House Bill 200 on Wednesday. “If they’re successful at it, we’ll have an idea what this could look like in the state of Georgia. If it’s a terrible process, we’ll know that, too.”

About 58% of Georgia voters supported eliminating runoffs after general elections, making the candidate who receives the most votes the winner, according to a poll last month by The Atlanta Journal-Constitution.

Several cities have proposed ranked-choice voting for municipal elections, including Atlanta and Woodstock, Gullett said.

So far, no bills have been proposed to adjust the runoff threshold or eliminate runoffs at the state level.

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A newly-introduced bipartisan bill, HB 200, would allow cities to adopt and use instant-runoff voting for municipal elections. The bill gets its first subcommittee hearing this Tuesday.

From the AJC:

“This is a starting point as a test if cities want to do it,” said state Rep. Joseph Gullett, a Republican from Dallas who introduced House Bill 200 on Wednesday. “If they’re successful at it, we’ll have an idea what this could look like in the state of Georgia. If it’s a terrible process, we’ll know that, too.”

About 58% of Georgia voters supported eliminating runoffs after general elections, making the candidate who receives the most votes the winner, according to a poll last month by The Atlanta Journal-Constitution.

Several cities have proposed ranked-choice voting for municipal elections, including Atlanta and Woodstock, Gullett said.

So far, no bills have been proposed to adjust the runoff threshold or eliminate runoffs at the state level.

Well the bill was not discussed in subcommittee today; we'll see how the bill proceeds.

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Well, the Democrats have introduced legislation (HB 419) to reduce the threshold to avoid a runoff from 50% to 45%. Unlike the bipartisan "let cities run IRV elections if they wish" bill (HB 200) I mentioned earlier, this bill solely has Democratic cosponsors.

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The 11th Circuit overturned a court ruling mandating that Public Service Commission seats be elected on a district basis, so (barring an appeal to SCOTUS and an unlikely reversal of the 11th Circuit) PSC seats will continue to be elected statewide.

As the article points out, it's possible that GA voters will have three PSC elections on the ballot next year - the one seat originally scheduled for 2024 and the seats that were up in 2022 (before those elections were cancelled). If that ends up being the case, this would mean that the Dems could win a PSC majority if they swept the races - the current PSC is a GOP monopoly, and has been since 2006 - but I find that incredibly unlikely. PSC races don't get a lot of attention, and downballot lag and incumbency goes really far once you get that far down the ballot.

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Back to county redistricting: the majority-Dem Cobb County Commission will try to amend the commission district map passed by the General Assembly. The Commission cites the home rule provisions in the state constitution, allowing counties and municipalities to amend legislation pertaining to their specific jurisdiction (a "local bill").

Typically, redistricting for county and city governing bodies (commissions, school boards, etc.) is treated as local legislation and passed in coordination between local officials and the county's General Assembly delegation. However, for the most recent session the General Assembly opted to draw their own maps in a few (largely Dem-leaning) counties like Cobb and Gwinnett.

Under the new maps (and assuming Cobb is not successful in this maneuver) is that Cobb's Dem majority will be left untouched (3-2), but one Dem commissioner (Jerica Richardson) will be drawn out of her seat and another GOP district will be shored up. In Gwinnett, the Dem monopoly (5-0) will give way to a 4-1 majority for at least one or two terms, as one district was redrawn to be more Republican.

If Cobb is successful, the Commission will just pass the map originally proposed by the Dem-controlled General Assembly delegation, which was mostly a least-change map. I don't know if Gwinnett will try something similar, but given the time left before the midterm election, I don't think they will.

Bringing this thread back from the dead, there has been movement on this. A few days ago, the Georgia Supreme Court unanimously reversed a lower court ruling that struck down the Commission-drawn map as unconstitutional. As such, the Commission-drawn map remains in effect, at least for now. Indeed, early voting is taking place on the Commission lines, not the lines passed by the General Assembly (the "Act 562" lines as referred to in the Court's opinion).

Despite the county not losing the Floam case, the Court states that they did not rule on the merits, merely that the Floams were not eligible for declaratory relief. In fact, in my reading of the opinion it seems as if the Court is all but begging for some eligible party to obtain declaratory judgment on the merits, even naming the county Board of Elections and Registration as a party that would qualify:

In its amicus brief, the Cobb County Board of Elections and Registration (“BOER”) pointed to its own uncertainty as to whether the BOC Amendment was valid and asked for some resolution in time for it implement a redistricting map before the qualifying period that began on March 2, 2024. Given BOER’s duties in administering elections, that is the kind of uncertainty that would support a declaratory judgment. But BOER is not a party to this case, and the Floams cannot use a nonparty’s uncertainty to establish their own standing.

Justice Charlie Bethel filed a concurring opinion, agreeing with the conclusion reached by the Court on this specific case while warning of the pitfalls should the overall issue be left unresolved:

I offer the following illustration not to suggest what will happen, but only to show what might happen, assuming Cobb’s merits argument ultimately fails. It is clear that Cobb has asserted a novel application of the constitutional Home Rule powers that has never been decided by this Court, though the only Georgia court to reach the merits of Cobb’s argument found it untenable. We concluded today that the present action is not the proper vehicle by which to litigate this issue. But sooner or later, a proper party will almost certainly bring a proper claim, and a court will decide the novel issue raised in this case. A review of the record and the current posture of the Cobb County Commission suggests that an adverse
merits decision for Cobb could feasibly result in at least one current Commission member to be found to lack residency in his or her district. And Cobb is currently conducting elections for two seats under the contested maps. Litigation during and even after those elections seems inevitable. But litigation takes time, and it is easily within the realm of possibility that several months could pass before such litigation is concluded, particularly if Cobb continues to pursue what could be interpreted as a deliberately leisurely litigation strategy.

Indeed, depending on the timeline of any future litigation, it would not be inconceivable for Cobb to find itself with three vacant Commission seats and the Commission unable to form a quorum, leaving its citizens without duly elected representation. To avoid these possibilities, it seems to me that Cobb has an interest in reaching a merits-based resolution as quickly as possible. I urge Cobb to act with all due haste in securing finality.

For their part, it seems like Cobb County isn't in any particular hurry to "secure finality"; according to the AP article, county spokesperson (and former local TV news reporter) Ross Cavitt stated that it's unlikely the county will take action - "The county attorney’s office does not believe there is a proper action to file."