Georgia's Very Own Megathread!

[skbl17]

I actually don't live in SD-17 anymore lol, but HD-35 (Ed "Heartbeat Bill" Setzler) and SD-37 (Lindsey Tippins).

Anyway, while it's true that SD-17 contains parts of two reliable-Dem counties (Rockdale and Henry), I wouldn't call Newton "reliably Dem", at least not to the same extent as Henry. Newton County has barely budged in the last few years; the sheer size of the AfAm population means that Newton tips Dem in a normal year, but in low-turnout races, the GOP can and does still win it. Stacey Abrams actually did slightly better in Cobb County than she did in Newton.

Also, the parts of the Henry and Newton counties that overlap with SD-17 are the reddest parts of their respective counties. The heavily-black portions of Newton and Rockdale are in SD-43, for example; most of the Newton precincts inside SD-17 were Kemp+30 or better in 2018, while Henry's SD-17 precincts were more split but still Republican-leaning thanks to the inclusion of virtually every Republican precinct east of SR 155.

What that means for the fall, I dunno. With the competitive HD-109 being almost completely contained inside SD-17, I'd imagine the Dems will ensure there's a lot of campaigning going for both Regina Lewis-Ward (HD-109) and Kelly Rose. I'd probably classify SD-17 as Lean R due to the nine-point gap the Dems have to make up, but I can see the argument for tilt R.

Meanwhile, I can see the argument for HD-109 being Tilt D (although I'd keep it as a tossup out of a sense of caution). The portions of that district that are in Rockdale and Newton are Dem as of 2018, and everything west of SR 155 in Henry County is either blue or swinging blue. Even the east-of-155 precincts are moving in a more pink direction; don't get me wrong, they're still Republican, but not Trump+40 Republican. Rutledge was reelected in 2018 by an 828-vote margin: that will not be difficult for Dems to overcome so long as they remember to turn out.

[skbl17]

How many pickups will Democrats have in the GA legislature this year?

In short:

Unfortunately, not enough, and that's probably all that will matter.

In the 180-seat state House, you need 91 seats for a majority. Dems hold 75, so they need a net gain of 16.

In the 56-seat state Senate, you need 28 seats + the lieutenant governor for a majority (29 without him). Dems hold 21, so they need a net gain of 7 and hope to beat Geoff Duncan in 2022, or win 8 if they don't want to worry about that.

Even if the Dems hold all their seats in the state House, they would need to run the table on all of the seats the AJC marked as being won by Republicans in 2018 with 55% or less of the vote, plus gain HD-106 in Snellville, which returned Brett Harrell unopposed but voted for Abrams by double-digits upballot. That would get them to 91, but it would require the Dems to play everything 100% perfectly, and even then that might not be quite enough.

For example, some of the seats the Dems would need to win are in rural Georgia, in areas that are shifting away from them. Some of the metro Atlanta suburban seats may shift left but stay narrowly Republican, such as HD-44 or HD-49. Deborah Silcox and Sharon Cooper may have just enough moderate street cred left to survive in their top-end Perimeter seats. Add in HD-151's Gerald Greene (R) being quite popular with the voters of his rural Obama/Clinton district, and I can't get the Dems to 91.

I can get them to the low 80s, but it's a stretch for me to see the Dems winning more than 82 or 83 seats. Very, very Likely R, but for all intents and purposes it's practically Safe R.

The state Senate is absolutely Safe R without question. The Dems could get a few seats (SD-9, SD-17, SD-56), but they'd still be four or five seats short of a majority. To win control, they'd need to win seats that are R+20 or better. Not happening.

[skbl17]

If flipping the GA House requires winning seats that Republicans won by 10 points or less, that’d require a a multi point PV victory to happen, which seems really far fetched even in this climate, right?

Yes. It's also the case that most state legislators here do win crossover support from people who otherwise vote D/R upballot. It's quite probable that you'll see some metro Atlanta seats - quite a few - that vote for Biden and even Ossoff at the top of the ballot, but narrowly opt to reelect their Republican state rep or state senator.

Just as a reference, the state House vote overall was R+8.7 in 2018. For comparison, the gubernatorial race was R+1.5, and most other statewide races were R+2 to R+6.

With this in mind, Griff is right about the path Georgia is on. I do believe that Dems will be winning statewide races no later than 2022, but there will be significant lag in the General Assembly as Republicans will maintain small but comfortable majorities for a while, meaning that we'll be in for a decade of split government at least.

[skbl17]

After reading Speaker YE's post, I decided to look into how the primary numbers in state House races looked.

As of 1am the partisan primary split in the state House primaries is 92-88 GOP. The statewide vote breakdown is really close:

- 869,858 D (50.5%)
- 852,917 R (49.5%)

When this megathread was first started, I made a post indicating the kinds of districts Dems would need to win for control of the state House. Here's the current partisan primary breakdown in each of those districts:

Seats I said the Dems must hold:

HD-132	4,955 D (51.8%) - 4,614 R (48.2%)	D+3.6%	Minority leader Bob Trammell's seat
HD-37	6,136 D (54.8%) - 5,066 R (45.2%)	D+9.6%
HD-48	5,164 D (59.8%) - 3,471 R (40.2%)	D+19.6%
HD-50	5,310 D (63.4%) - 3,062 R (36.6%)	D+26.8%
HD-108	6,095 D (58.2%) - 4,375 R (41.8%)	D+16.4%

So for now, it appears that the metro seats are in good shape. Bob Trammell looks like he'll survive his primary, but the primary numbers still leave room for concern.

How about Brett Harrell (R) in HD-106?:

HD-106

8,415 D (64.2%) - 4,698 R (35.8%)

D+28.4%

Yeah, he's done for in November; as I said, he only got lucky in 2018 as the Dems' own qualifying hijinks cost them a place on the ballot in this double-digit Abrams seat in south Gwinnett. Oddly enough, the write-in candidate from 2018, Emily Leslie, is losing badly in the Dem primary.

Meanwhile, the Dems have to run the table on these GOP-held seats:

HD-35	6,464 D (56.8%) - 4,920 R (43.2%)	D+13.6%
HD-43	6,216 D (51.0%) - 5,963 R (49.0%)	D+2.0%
HD-44	6,199 D (49.6%) - 6,297 R (50.4%)	R+0.8%
HD-49	5,716 D (57.3%) - 4,264 R (42.7%)	D+14.6%
HD-52	6,720 D (63.7%) - 3,823 R (36.3%)	D+27.4%
HD-97	6,270 D (53.0%) - 5,571 R (47.0%)	D+6.0%
HD-104	7,091 D (57.8%) - 5,180 R (42.2%)	D+15.6%
HD-109	8,538 D (58.3%) - 6,108 R (41.7%)	D+16.6%
HD-117	6,483 D (50.4%) - 6,376 R (49.6%)	D+0.8%
HD-119	6,305 D (45.5%) - 7,566 R (54.5%)	R+9.0%
HD-147	4,108 D (48.6%) - 4,342 R (51.4%)	R+2.8%
HD-151	7,054 D (66.1%) - 3,626 R (33.9%)	D+32.2%
HD-164	3,850 D (55.0%) - 3,148 R (45.0%)	D+10.0%
HD-138	4,276 D (49.3%) - 4,391 R (50.7%)	R+1.4%
HD-179	4,507 D (42.3%) - 6,140 R (57.7%)	R+15.4%

Assuming the Dems hold all of their seats, winning all of these seats would get them to 91 seats - a slim majority. Most of these seats are in metro Atlanta, but several are not: HD-117 and HD-119 are in Athens, HD-138 is in west Georgia, HD-147 is in Warner Robins, HD-151 is in southwest Georgia, HD-164 is in Savannah, and HD-179 is in Brunswick.

Now, you may think, "hold on skbl17, if you add up all the seats here that Dems are leading in, they only get to 86 seats!" To be fair, that's still a bit above where I have them getting to in November anyway, and also, it turns out that there are two other seats that weren't on my radar because I didn't think of them as competitive:

HD-47	5,126 D (50.3%) - 5,072 R (49.7%)	D+0.6%	Speaker pro tempore of the House Jan Jones's seat
HD-110	5,591 D (49.1%) - 5,804 R (50.9%)	R+1.8%

That gets the Dems to 87 seats. Finally, there was another seat I missed in my original June post: HD-145. It's currently held by a Republican, but this Milledgeville-to-Eatonton seat is still reasonably competitive, as Baldwin County is a swingy-but-Dem-tipping-in-good-Dem-years county, and this seat contains all of Baldwin plus a bit of Putnam (up to Eatonton). The primary results reflect the competitive nature:

HD-145

5,280 D (51.6%) - 4,963 R (48.4%)

D+3.2%

Now, winning every seat listed here would get the Dems to 94 seats, three more than they need for a majority. I do think some of these seats are still quite a reach for Dems though. HD-179, for instance, is only on the very fringes of competitive (and will in all likelihood be off the board for Dems come November,) and I still have serious doubts over seats like HD-117, HD-119, and HD-151. Also, some of the seats where Dems have very slim leads (like 1 or 2 points) are probably close enough that it could be chalked up to the competitive nature of the top-of-the-ballot races versus the coronations on the GOP side, combined with Georgia's open primary system. However, one thing I noticed is that there doesn't seem to be many results that would be owed to rural ancestral Dems (aside from, perhaps, the aforementioned HD-151) - seats like HD-138 are narrowly R, but you'd think that it would be D due to, say, local county-level races. Who knows.

That said, the door to House control is cracked ever so slightly; the question is whether or not the Dems will go all-in and make a play for it. I still say the state House is Very Likely R, but I'll back off from the move I made earlier to Safe R. You could even make a fair argument that the state House may be a strong Likely-but-on-the-cusp-of-Lean R if you were feeling particularly bold.

[skbl17]

I assume the fact that Ga has an ungodly number of house seats and counties are somehow related.  Also, why is HD-179 on the list?

On the subject of counties, I don't think the numbers are related. The common refrain in Georgia is that we have the number of counties we have because the idea was for farmers and those doing business in the county seat to be able to travel there and back within one day by horse and buggy.

I'm actually not sure about why we have 180 House seats tbh.

As for HD-179, back in June when I made my original list, I noticed that the HD-179 result in 2018 seemed closer than I would have expected. HD-179 is anchored in the city of Brunswick, so at the time I thought that in the right conditions, and with the right candidate, it could poke its nose into the competitive board. I was probably jumping the gun, even though it does seem as if Dem prospects in coastal Georgia are slowly improving.

Honestly, I would have swapped 179 for 145. Can't believe I forgot about that seat!

[skbl17]

Per the AJC, absentee ballot applications will not be mailed for the November general election. Instead, an "online portal" will be set up to allow voters to order an absentee ballot.

And Raffensperger said he won’t send absentee ballot request forms to 6.9 million Georgia voters again, as he did in the primary. Instead, he’ll create a website where voters can request absentee ballots themselves.

[skbl17]

Per the AJC, absentee ballot applications will not be mailed for the November general election. Instead, an "online portal" will be set up to allow voters to order an absentee ballot.

And Raffensperger said he won’t send absentee ballot request forms to 6.9 million Georgia voters again, as he did in the primary. Instead, he’ll create a website where voters can request absentee ballots themselves.

Honestly, this is even better: no stupid postage or envelope required for application return.

I really don't get why the GOP (both Kemp and now Raffensperger) are so hell-bent on making voting easy? First the MVP system, then AVR, and now all of this. How many states (even D-controlled ones) mailed ballot applications to voters for even the primary?

Yeah, this is a good move.

I just hope there is a plan in place for those who don't have internet service or live in areas without good internet access. I remember there was a post you made in one of these megathreads talking about Georgia's internet deserts - one such place was majority-black Hancock County in rural Georgia.

Maybe county election boards should be given an option to mail absentee ballot applications if they feel that the online system would be inadequate given the socioeconomic conditions of the county?

[skbl17]

Meanwhile, in the land of metrics of dubious usefulness, here's an update on the two-party primary vote by state house race (as of 2pm):

The margin is now 91-89 GOP, down from 92-88. Since last check, Dems have taken a 0.8% lead in HD-44 in Cobb County. As a reminder, the state House composition at the time of the last election was 105-75 GOP.

Also, the Dems' lead in the two-party margin has increased by 0.64%:

- D: 895,707 (51.14%)
- R: 855,637 (48.86%)


Also, for fun I decided to look at the State Senate primary numbers as well.

The margin there is 30-26 GOP. As a reminder, after the last election the seat composition was 35-21 GOP.

The current two-party vote breakdown is:

- D: 896,474 (50.95%)
- R: 863,020 (49.05%)

The Dems are in no danger in any of their seats. One of the Dems' two flips from 2018, SD-48 in Gwinnett County, was thought to be potentially competitive since it's an open seat this time around, but the primary margin suggests the Dems will have no issue holding it in November:

SD-48

20,296 D (65.0%) - 10,933 R (35.0%)

D+30.0%

Meanwhile, the metro seats held by the GOP are more precarious than I thought. I knew the Republicans were in danger in SD-9, SD-17, and SD-56, but maybe the Dems should also look at SD-37 and SD-45, maybe even SD-32(?):

Metro seats held by the GOP:

SD-32	22,515 D (48.3%) - 24,112 R (51.7%)	R+3.4%
SD-37	20,779 D (50.3%) - 20,521 R (49.7%)	D+0.6%
SD-45	19,450 D (50.8%) - 18,827 R (49.2%)	D+1.6%
SD-56	17,998 D (58.0%) - 13,032 R (42.0%)	D+16.0%
SD-9	25,722 D (58.8%) - 18,012 R (41.2%)	D+17.6%
SD-17	23,533 D (53.8%) - 20,237 R (46.2%)	D+7.6%

Unlike the House, where the door is propped open a bit to give Dems a slim chance of winning a majority, even if I give them every seat listed here, they would only get to 27 seats. At that point, they'd need to win two more seats (since the Lt. Gov. is Republican), which I don't see - the next seat on the list is SD-23 (52.5% GOP), but that's a rural district that's moving away from Dems.

The state Senate is Safe R, and nothing about these numbers makes me think otherwise, but the gap may turn out to be smaller than I expected come January. We'll see.

[skbl17]

For those of you asking for maps, @The_Viking95 on Twitter has delivered (for the presidential primary, at least). Not the absolute latest data, but I expect very little to change from where this map stands now.

The map doesn't look too far off a standard election map of Georgia, aside from being bluer of course. There are some ancestral Dem outliers, such as Wilkes, Screven, and Decatur counties, all of which will vote Republican in November, but the map doesn't look as crazy as 2018 did.

Well, aside from blue Fayette. Still don't think Dems win it in November, but with Biden polling better with seniors and the Dems doing an excellent job consolidating northeast and northern Fayette, maybe the time for blue Fayette may be sooner than I previously thought. Still likely not this year though.

https://twitter.com/The_Viking95/status/1276637473003708416

[skbl17]

The primary results have finally been certified. Looking once again at the General Assembly primary races, you can see the Dems ahead in many GOP-held seats, but a word of caution: there are several seats (HD-47 for instance) where the margins are close enough that it could be down to the relative competitiveness of the top-of-ballot races on the Dem side versus the Republican side.

However, there are some Republicans (SD-9, SD-56, HD-49, HD-104, HD-109 for example) who fell so far behind that I think Dems have great chances to win their seats, even after taking into account the odd idiosyncrasies in the two-party primary dynamic this year.

Anyway, here are the final two-party margins, plus some rudimentary ratings straight out the gate (I'm new at this; some of these ratings are bullish while some are bearish - there's a lot of "gut feeling" stuff going on):

State Senate
DEM: 944,167 (51.64%) - lead in 26 districts
GOP: 884,266 (48.36%) - lead in 30 districts

GOP-held districts where Dems won majority of primary votes:
SD-9 (59.0% DEM)
SD-17 (53.8% DEM)
SD-37 (50.4% DEM)
SD-45 (50.8% DEM)
SD-56 (58.6% DEM)

There are no Dem-held seats where the GOP won the majority of the primary votes. The closest is SD-48 in Gwinnett and Fulton counties, which was 65% DEM.

Out the primary gate, I would rate the general election matchups like this:
- SD-9: Lean D (flip)
- SD-56: Tilt D (flip)
- SD-17: Tilt R
- SD-37: Likely R
- SD-45: Likely R
- SD-32: Very Likely R

All Dem-held seats are Safe D.

In other words, 33-23 GOP (+2 DEM). The state Senate is Safe R, because even if the Dems manage to win all the seats they led in during the primary, and even win SD-32 (51.5% GOP), I only get them to 27 seats, two seats short of an overall majority.

State House
DEM: 952,498 (52.12%) - lead in 89 districts
GOP: 875,044 (47.88%) - lead in 91 districts

GOP-held districts where Dems won majority of primary votes:
HD-35 (57.7% DEM)
HD-43 (52.6% DEM)
HD-44 (50.5% DEM)
HD-47 (50.2% DEM)
HD-49 (57.4% DEM)
HD-52 (64.5% DEM)
HD-97 (53.1% DEM)
HD-104 (58.0% DEM)
HD-106 (64.3% DEM)
HD-109 (58.4% DEM)
HD-117 (50.4% DEM)
HD-145 (51.0% DEM)
HD-151 (66.1% DEM)
HD-164 (53.7% DEM)

Again, there are no Dem-held seats where the GOP won the majority of the primary votes. The closest is HD-132, the seat of minority leader Bob Trammell, which was 51.8% DEM.

Out of the primary gate, I would rate the general election matchups like this:
- HD-37: Likely D
- HD-48: Likely D
- HD-108: Likely D
- HD-132: Tilt D
- HD-35: Tilt D (flip)
- HD-43: Tilt R
- HD-44: Likely R
- HD-45: Likely R
- HD-47: Likely R
- HD-49: Tilt D (flip)
- HD-52: Very Likely D (flip)
- HD-97: Tossup
- HD-104: Tilt D (flip)
- HD-106: Very Likely D (flip)
- HD-109: Tilt D (flip)
- HD-110: Likely R
- HD-117: Lean R
- HD-119: Likely R
- HD-138: Lean R
- HD-145: Lean R
- HD-147: Likely R
- HD-151: Lean R, explanation below
- HD-164: Tossup

All other seats are safe for the incumbent party.

In other words, 99-81 GOP (+6 DEM). There are enough "non-safe" GOP-held seats where the Dems could, hypothetically, win a slim majority if they win most of the "non-safe" seats. Not impossible, but hard to do in light of the traditional "incumbent bonus" members of the state legislature have, especially if they can avoid becoming an individual lightning rod for controversy. The state House is Very Likely R.

A note about HD-151: this is one of those rural seats were things are tricky to quantify. The "66.1% DEM" number in the two-party primary race looks outstanding for Dems, but unlike the metro seats where such a number convinces me the seat is likely to flip, HD-151 is a rural seat held by an institution of the state House: Gerald Greene, the Republican from Cuthbert. Greene has an unbelievable ability to defy the partisan makeup of his district; I believe he actually does a good job with constituent outreach and enjoys a good amount of crossover support. Case in point, when Dems actually tried to knock him off here in 2018, they lost, even though the primary margins and overall demographics of the seat should point to an easy pickup.

The primary margins and demographics are good enough to where Dems can't be counted out, but I do believe Greene is favored at this point.

[skbl17]

As previously mentioned in this thread, the state won't mail absentee ballot applications (instead setting up a website for the purpose,) but at least one metro Atlanta county wants to step in and do the same for its voters.

Cobb County's Board of Elections voted unanimously to request money from the county commission to mail all active registered voters (including yours truly) an absentee ballot application for the November general election. BoE director Janine Eveler hopes that the board of commissioners will approve the request at the August 11 board meeting.

[skbl17]

As previously mentioned in this thread, the state won't mail absentee ballot applications (instead setting up a website for the purpose,) but at least one metro Atlanta county wants to step in and do the same for its voters.

Cobb County's Board of Elections voted unanimously to request money from the county commission to mail all active registered voters (including yours truly) an absentee ballot application for the November general election. BoE director Janine Eveler hopes that the board of commissioners will approve the request at the August 11 board meeting.

Updates:

- Cobb County: The proposal to fund the election board's plan to mail absentee ballot applications to active voters was not taken up at yesterday's BoC meeting.

By the way, DeKalb County has a similar plan to send absentee ballot applications, but that plan is being opposed by Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger, who believes the move to send applications to both active and inactive voters would leave the system exposed to fraud. He's asking the board to reconsider their plan.

- Statewide: The State Elections Board unanimously approved the SoS's plan to set up an absentee ballot request website for voters to use. The website is scheduled to go live by the end of August.

Also, it appears as if counties will be allowed to start opening absentee ballots two weeks before election day, instead of the one week currently allowed. This will not change the tabulation process, which cannot start until after polls close on Election Day itself.

[skbl17]

FWIW, I can verify the ballot request site works.  The absentee file shows my application (I entered it the first day the website was online).

Yep, I also see mine in the file.

[skbl17]

My estimate was very approximate and based on file sizes for each county, but Ryan Anderson (the guy who runs georgiavote.com) says:

https://twitter.com/gtryan/status/1306209379956535297

Hopefully his site will be functioning in the next couple of days (though he usually only did returned votes + the sheer number of mail ballot requests will make this a nightmare for him).

The site is up!

[skbl17]

In district attorney election news, the Georgia Supreme Court unanimously rules that the District Attorney election for the Western Judicial Circuit (Clarke and Oconee counties) must be held this year, rather than waiting until 2022.

[skbl17]

[snip]

Nice! I wonder how many of those are active registered voters.

[skbl17]

if republicans lose Georgia in November, will they try to repeal or severely tighten up automatic registering? I have a weird feeling that they might to delay Georgia from becoming a full blue state. Or maybe Georgia becomes Florida 2.0 where its a tilt r swing state for eternity. I dont know

I can't believe they implemented it in the first place. God knows I wouldn't have done so if I was in their shoes. The writing has been on the wall for a decade for the GOP here, but hilariously enough, it was Progressive Hero™ SoS Brian Kemp who pushed for and oversaw most of these changes.

That's the funny thing - there was never any court ruling or statute mandating AVR, Kemp just did it anyway. Usually, good things^TM for voter rights in the South typically come about as the result of litigation.

By the way, do you still stand by the graph^TM you made vis-à-vis the future of Georgia governor's races (can't find the original post, but I did save the URL,) or has there been any data in the last two years to change your opinion on where things (plausibly) stand going into 2022? It might not be the best time to ask this question, considering there is an imminent election that might give us a better idea of Georgia voter trends, but I'm curious.

[skbl17]

Haven't done an update on the Gwinnett County GOP dumpster fire in a while, but apparently (Dem internal, so usual caveats apply) Nicole Love Hendrickson (D) is polling at 62% in the race for the open county commission chair seat.

Just for reference, the retiring chair Charlotte Nash (R) won 52.6% of the vote in 2016.

Even if this poll is inflated on the Dem margin, I am 99.99% confident the Dems will sweep the county commission next week (every Republican-held seat is up, they're all open, and the map is a really bad GOP dummymander - Abrams won every seat by double digits) as well as all the other contested partisan county offices. The question is, will this be a rare case of downballot outrunning upballot, or are the top-of-the-ticket races even worse for Republicans in Gwinnett?

After Abrams notched nearly 57% of the vote in Gwinnett County, Democrats believe if they can lift that percentage to 60%, Biden will carry the state on the strength of a suburban surge. A recent internal Democratic poll that placed the party’s candidate for county commissioner chair at 62% left Keaton heartened.

“And if we hit 62 on a county race, then we would surely get it for the top of the ticket,” she said.

[skbl17]

Is there a site, report or list of which Georgia legislative races to follow? I've been increasingly interested in the Georgia downballot races and how both chambers will end up, but not sure which ones to follow

I know Election Twitter has a spreadsheet of ratings, and CNalysis is watching state legislative races (they characterize both chambers as Safe R).

Cook hasn't done much reporting on the General Assembly, but in their most recent subscribers-only article they classify both chambers as Lean R. I feel that is a bit bullish for the House and outlandish for the Senate.

Control of the state Senate is not competitive in my view, but races to watch would be:

- SD-48 (Dem held; should be an easy hold)
- SD-9 (GOP held; Gwinnett County; Dems should be slightly favored in this environment)
- SD-17 (GOP held; Henry/Newton/Rockdale; GOP tilting but should be watched in this environment)
- SD-32 (GOP held; East Cobb; should be an easy GOP hold unless something dramatic happens)
- SD-37 (GOP held; Kennesaw/Acworth/West Cobb; likely GOP hold but Dems did narrowly win the State Senate primary vote)
- SD-45 (GOP held; Buford/Rest Haven; likely GOP hold)
- SD-56 (GOP held; Roswell; tossup seat)

There is a nonzero chance that Dems could win the state House if they're having a truly unbelievable night. Personally, I don't think it happens, but enough seats are competitive that it's not impossible (Likely R).

I'd watch:

- HD-132 (Dem held; Newnan/Luthersville/Hogansville/LaGrange; minority leader's seat; Dem tilting but needs to be watched as an ancestral Dem seat)
- most of the north metro Atlanta seats (37, 48, and 108 are Dem held by slim margins, but the environment and trends are such that they should be fine; Dems are all but certain to gain HD-106; the number of GOP-held seats that fall beyond 106 will depend on how good a night Dems have in the metro)
- HD-109 (GOP held; Henry/Newton/Rockdale; probably a Dem gain in this environment)
- HD-110 (GOP held; Henry/Butts; likely GOP hold but could be a sleeper gain if Dems put up a crazy performance in Locust Grove and southern McDonough)
- HD-117 (GOP held; Athens; GOP tilting)
- HD-119 (GOP held; Athens; GOP tilting)
- HD-138 (GOP held; Americus/Cusseta; GOP leaning)
- HD-145 (GOP held; Eatonton/Milledgeville; GOP leaning but could be a possible Dem gain if Biden is doing very well in Baldwin County)
- HD-147 (GOP held; Warner Robins; GOP tilting)
- HD-151 (GOP held; black belt west of Albany up to almost Columbus; GOP tilting but Dems do really well in primaries and downballot - the Dem-turned-Republican Gerald Greene has a solid personal vote; we'll see if he can hold on)
- HD-164 (GOP held; Savannah; tossup)

[skbl17]

The Public Service Commission runoff and all other state runoffs will be delayed until January 5 (the same day as the Senate runoffs).

[skbl17]

Speaking of David Ralston, he gave a press conference on January 7. He thanked outgoing Senators Perdue and Loeffler, and congratulated Sen.-elect Ossoff (despite Perdue not yet conceding,) Sen.-elect Warnock, and the reelected PSC chair Lauren (Bubba) McDonald.

On the topic of changing election rules, as some Republican lawmakers have proposed:

- He's against requiring an excuse to vote absentee, as some Republicans (including SoS Raffensperger) have called for. He notes that the GOP brought in no-excuse absentee voting themselves. He did note that the "security" of VBM ballots should match those of in-person votes, so I do think a photo ID requirement will be introduced, but he mentioned that it would take a lot to convince him to support eliminating the no-excuse absentee voting system. No mention of their proposals to eliminate drop boxes, ban the mailing of absentee ballot applications, and forbid the use of mobile voting sites by county election boards.

- On redistricting, he criticized recent Democratic proposals for independent commissions, bringing up that they never brought in a commission in the "145 years" they ran Georgia. Ralston remarks that SCOTUS upheld redistricting as a "political process", and that "there's nothing wrong with that".

- A special House "election integrity committee" will be appointed to "keep our elections open and accessible" and "ensure proper oversight and security of our elections process". However, he says that the focus is not on "looking back", but "looking forward", implying that the state House (at least) won't be preoccupied by election-related issues.

- The special committee will look into how special elections are conducted, including weighing the future of the jungle primary system (he supports abolishing jungle primaries). However, Ralston is skeptical of changing the "basic rules" of state elections, remarking that he is "very cautious" of changing the general runoff rules. Runoffs may live on.

- Significantly, Ralston is looking into the possibility of removing election oversight powers from the Secretary of State's office and moving it to a separate "Chief Elections Officer", mentioning that such an act wouldn't require a constitutional amendment. He's still supportive of but not "wedded" to his earlier proposal to make the SoS an appointed position (which would require an amendment, which would require buy-in from Dems and approval by voters).

- On a question regarding the creation of a joint committee on looking into some Republicans' election fraud allegations, Ralston's not keen on the idea, not wanting this to become a "political pandering" situation.

The new legislative session starts Monday.

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Well, the first salvo in the GOP's fight to restrict the absentee ballot system has been fired: SB 29, which would introduce photo ID requirements for most individuals voting by mail.

Under SB 29, individuals (except for UOCAVA - overseas and military - voters) who apply for an absentee ballot would have to submit a photocopy of an ID.

Those who vote by mail would also be required to submit a photocopy of their photo ID with their completed absentee ballot. Voters who don't submit a copy of their photo ID with their completed ballot will have it treated as a provisional ballot, so they'd have the same three-day post-election day period to "cure" their ballot by providing identification lest the ballot be officially thrown out.

For the record, I expect either this bill - either as is or as amended - or a similar version to reach Gov. Kemp's desk. What I'm wondering is if any other restrictions will be passed, considering House Speaker David Ralston's...hesitance...to go much further than having the same "security" for absentee ballots as other ballots.

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Lt. Gov. Geoff Duncan (R) issued a statement praising the Senate's passage of SB 40, 67, 184, and 188, citing the "bipartisan" nature of the bills passed.

- SB 40, introduced by Sen. Jen Jordan (D,) would have counties start processing absentee ballots a week before Election Day rather than after the polls close. Passed 53-0.

- SB 67, introduced by Sen. Larry Walker (R,) would eliminate signature verification for paper absentee ballot applications and require the applicant to provide either an ID number (driver's license or state ID) or a photocopy of the ID. This is how the online absentee ballot portal from 2020 worked. SB 67 would also authorize, under state law, the Secretary of State to maintain the online request portal; the portal was initially set up under emergency COVID-related rules, so this would codify the SoS's ability to set such a portal up (or keep the existing one in operation). Passed 35-18; only Michael Rhett joined Republicans to vote in favor of the bill.

- SB 184, introduced by Sen. Bill Cowsert (R,) would impose a 30-day limit (down from 60 days) on county election boards to enter voter data for each primary or general election, fining them $100 for each day they take after that. Passed 37-15; three Democrats joined Republicans to vote in favor of the bill.

- SB 188, introduced by Sen. Bill Cowsert (R,) would prevent counties from uploading election results until the total number of votes cast (i.e. early, absentee, and election day) is known. Passed 34-18; with Jen Jordan joining all voting Republicans to pass the bill.

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Lt. Gov. Geoff Duncan (R) issued a statement praising the Senate's passage of SB 40, 67, 184, and 188, citing the "bipartisan" nature of the bills passed.

- SB 40, introduced by Sen. Jen Jordan (D,) would have counties start processing absentee ballots a week before Election Day rather than after the polls close. Passed 53-0.

- SB 67, introduced by Sen. Larry Walker (R,) would eliminate signature verification for paper absentee ballot applications and require the applicant to provide either an ID number (driver's license or state ID) or a photocopy of the ID. This is how the online absentee ballot portal from 2020 worked. SB 67 would also authorize, under state law, the Secretary of State to maintain the online request portal; the portal was initially set up under emergency COVID-related rules, so this would codify the SoS's ability to set such a portal up (or keep the existing one in operation). Passed 35-18; only Michael Rhett joined Republicans to vote in favor of the bill.

- SB 184, introduced by Sen. Bill Cowsert (R,) would impose a 30-day limit (down from 60 days) on county election boards to enter voter data for each primary or general election, fining them $100 for each day they take after that. Passed 37-15; three Democrats joined Republicans to vote in favor of the bill.

- SB 188, introduced by Sen. Bill Cowsert (R,) would prevent counties from uploading election results until the total number of votes cast (i.e. early, absentee, and election day) is known. Passed 34-18; with Jen Jordan joining all voting Republicans to pass the bill.

None of these seem too bad, but why was the last one necessary at all? What problem are they trying to fix with that bill?

Honestly, I don't know. If I had to hazard a guess, maybe the GOP is pushing this bill as a means to prevent the "finding votes" problem (i.e. "why did DeKalb/Fulton/wherever just add 5,000 votes to their totals despite it being three days after election day?"). It seems like the bill's cosponsors either don't understand how the vote counting process works - many counties don't truly know just how many UOCAVA and provisional ballots will be counted until the Friday after the election - or it's just a cynical sop to their constituents to point to and say they "did something" to "stop stolen elections".

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Bert Reeves, the Republican incumbent in GA-HD-34, is resigning to take up a new position at Georgia Tech. Reeves won reelection in this Cobb County district by 12 points last November.

HD-34 was Trump+4 (or was it Trump+3?) in 2020 (down from Trump+16 in 2016,) and is sandwiched between HD-35 (Biden-won but GOP-held by less than 300 votes) and HD-37 (Biden-won, Dem-held since 2018).

For now, I think this'll be an R hold, but it will be interesting to see what the margin in the special election ends up being.

https://twitter.com/rahulbali/status/1385262472530210817