French election maps: Loire-Atlantique and Vendée

[PGSable]

Since we already have a map thread for Brittany...

First, the 2007 presidential election results by commune in Loire-Atlantique and Vendée.



Link to the gallery.

Standard Atlas key. Blue is Sarkozy, red is Royal, orange is Bayrou; that one purple commune in Vendée is Boulogne, which voted for Philippe de Villiers and is represented by Bertrand de Villiers (his brother) in the Vendée Conseil Général.

Commune maps for Bayrou and Villiers coming soon.

[PGSable]

And now for Bayrou:



Bayrou won 20.82% in Loire-Atlantique and 20.77% in Vendée. He did very well in northeastern Vendée, including both Villiers' cantons. His best commune in Loire-Atlantique was Ligné (28.95%). He beat his Pyrénées-Orientales score (29.61%) in three Vendée communes: Saint-Mars-la-Réorthe (33.57%), Saint-Malô-du-Bois (30.31%), and Vendrennes (29.97%).

[PGSable]

Pathetic that de Villiers didn't even win Montaigu, eh?

I'll get back to my Bretagne maps soon and perhaps do some demographic maps.

Dismal showing for Villiers (11.28% in Vendée and 3.12% in Loire-Atlantique), who should have been able to come in at least third in Vendée. He only broke 20% in four communes:
Boulogne (in his brother's canton): 23.49%
Chauché: 21.02%
Treize-Vents: 20.75%
Marillet: 20.00%

If I had the appropriate data by commune, I would make a comparative map of 1995 (when he actually won Vendée with 22.02% and managed 6.97% in Loire-Atlantique).

[PGSable]

I could do a comparative 2007-1995 Vendee map by constituency.

That would be interesting.

[PGSable]

OK, I did a little tiny one.



That constituency up there was his constituency and still held by the MPF.

So Villiers basically lost support uniformly throughout Vendée. How much did he get in his constituency?

[PGSable]

A comparative map of the 1992 referendum on the Maastricht Treaty (left) and the 2005 referendum on the European Constitution (right).



The 1992 referendum barely passed in France (51.04%), but Loire-Atlantique approved it handily (56.82%) while Vendée rejected it (49.70%). The 2005 referendum, of course, failed (45.33%), but passed in both Loire-Atlantique (51.12%) and Vendée (50.20%)

In 2005, the commune with the highest yes vote was Sautron (67.09%), and the lowest yes vote was in Juigné-des-Moutiers (25.84%).

In Vendée, the highest yes vote was in Saint-Laurent-sur-Sèvre (66.11%), and the lowest was in Saint-Martin-des-Fontaines (26.67%).

Vendée approved of the European Constitution despite Villiers being the most important no leader on the right; in fact, the yes vote was higher in the northeast than anywhere else in Vendée, and Montaigu voted yes (55.41%).

Saint-Gilles-Croix-de-Vie approved the Constitution with 55.29%. The anchovy fishermen held anti-EU protests there last summer, as well as in Saint-Nazaire (I believe), which rejected the Constitution (44.78%).

[PGSable]

The swings in Vendee from 1992 to 2005 are interesting.

Definitely. In most of Vendée (except for, roughly, the Marais breton) as well as in the northern part of Loire-Atlantique, the percentage of yes voters in 1992 was almost exactly equal to the percentage of the percentage of no voters in 2005. That goes to show that the people voted based on whether they liked the president at the time (compare the red areas on the 2005 and 2007 maps) rather than on the treaty itself.

[PGSable]

The 2005 map and the 2007 results in Northeast Vendee really shows how de Villiers influence is declining.

And it's declining fast, too. I'm about to post the map for the 2004 European election (that's less than a year before the referendum), and he swept Vendée and even did more than decently in Loire-Atlantique.

[PGSable]

And now, the 2004 European election.

The Pays de la Loire are in the Ouest region, along with Brittany and Poitou-Charentes. The results in Ouest are available here. You can also see the results for Loire-Atlantique and Vendée.



Red: Bernard Poignant's PS list.
Blue: Roselyne Bachelot's UMP list, which carried only La Baule-Escoublac.
Purple: Philippe de Villiers' MPF list.
Green: Michel Hunault's DVD (dissident UMP) list (he was, at the time, the mayor of Derval, in northern Loire-Atlantique)
Yellow: Fabrice Sanchez's CPNT list (the CPNT actually won two communes in Loire-Atlantique )

Villiers broke 50% in quite a few Vendée communes (none of the other candidates broke 50% anywhere). His three best communes—the ones where he broke 60%—were:

• Chauché (64.69%)
• Boulogne (63.44%), in his brother’s canton, which was the only commune he carried in the 2007 presidential election
• La Copechagnière (62.56%)

[PGSable]

Very interesting, especially the strength of the Hunault list in Chateaubriant constituency. That constituency (6th, formerly 5th) is held by the Hunault family since 1962.

The fact that the UMP won only in ONE commune is pathetic!

Results for Loire-Atlantique (lists over 5%)
Poignant list (PS): 33.19%
Bachelot list (UMP): 11.71%
Villiers list (MPF): 11.59%
Morillon list (UDF): 10.39%
Aubert list (Verts): 9.14%
Hunault list (DVD): 6.27%

Bachelot came in second with nearly 12%, but only won La Baule, whereas Hunault came in sixth with just over 6%, behind the UDF and Verts lists, but won (or tied in) over thirty communes, and broke 40% in six of them (so Bachelot's support is must more evenly distributed).

In general, Bachelot came in second in the Nantes area and the estuary. Poignant and Villiers were the main players south of the Loire, as were Poignant and Hunault in much of the north (and Hunault and Villiers in some areas).

Bachelot did decently everywhere, but there was no way the UMP could beat the PS along the Loire or the MPF near Vendée. Their only chance was in the north, but Bachelot didn't stand a chance against Hunault.

It still is hilarious, of course, that the CPNT won more communes than the UMP.

[PGSable]

Very interesting, especially the strength of the Hunault list in Chateaubriant constituency. That constituency (6th, formerly 5th) is held by the Hunault family since 1962.

The fact that the UMP won only in ONE commune is pathetic!

Results for Loire-Atlantique (lists over 5%)
Poignant list (PS): 33.19%
Bachelot list (UMP): 11.71%
Villiers list (MPF): 11.59%
Morillon list (UDF): 10.39%
Aubert list (Verts): 9.14%
Hunault list (DVD): 6.27%

Bachelot came in second with nearly 12%, but only won La Baule, whereas Hunault came in sixth with just over 6%, behind the UDF and Verts lists, but won (or tied in) over thirty communes, and broke 40% in six of them (so Bachelot's support is must more evenly distributed).

In general, Bachelot came in second in the Nantes area and the estuary. Poignant and Villiers were the main players south of the Loire, as were Poignant and Hunault in much of the north (and Hunault and Villiers in some areas).

Bachelot did decently everywhere, but there was no way the UMP could beat the PS along the Loire or the MPF near Vendée. Their only chance was in the north, but Bachelot didn't stand a chance against Hunault.

It still is hilarious, of course, that the CPNT won more communes than the UMP.

As I said, the Hunault family is a dynasty in that area and the fact that he won there is not all that surprising. Anything the Hunault family runs in, they win that area.

Of course. I was just noting that, even though Hunault swept the area while Bachelot won just one commune, Bachelot's support was more evenly distributed, so the UMP actually did much better than Hunault's list.

[PGSable]

Have the three inland departéments (Maine-et-Loire, Mayenne and Sarthe) been removed from the Pays de la Loire region?  Or do you, PGSable, merely consider them to belong to a different region just like Senator Kreizouriezh included Loire-Atlantique in "the Brittany of 5 departéments" as that departément was in the historical province of Brittany and includes Brittany's historical capital of Nantes (now the capital of Pays de la Loire and, like all regional capitals I believe, prefecture of its departément)?  What (lowercase) region do you consider each of the three inland departéments to be in?  And do you consider Loire-Atlantique to be part of Bretagne or at least Brittany?  (Perhaps the different language spelling entails different boundaries outside of France - I imagine "Brittany" isn't uttered much in France, although I'd be curious to know the Breton spelling an pronunciation of Brittany.)

I don't know that much about Maine-et-Loire, Mayenne, and Sarthe on a communal level, so I'm going to focus on Loire-Atlantique and Vendée (I should probably rename the thread), though I wouldn't rule out extending it later, especially if I make maps by canton or constituency.

As Hashemite said, Brittany is called Bretagne in French and Breizh (pronounced "Brez") in Breton.

The difference between Pays de la Loire and Brittany is that Brittany is a historical province, while Pays de la Loire was created with the sole purpose of giving Nantes its own region of influence. You have people in Loire-Atlantique and in the region of Brittany asking for Brittany to be reunified.

On the other hand, because Pays de la Loire is a more recent "artificial" region, people don't have strong feelings about it. I have heard some talk, however, of bringing Loire-Atlantique into Brittany, Vendée into Poitou-Charentes (it was originally a part of the province of Poitou), and maintaining the inland departments as the Maine-Anjou region.

[PGSable]

Le Pen in 2002 (round 1) by canton:



National: 16.86%, second behind Chirac (19.88%) with Jospin at 16.18%
Sarthe: 15.01%, third behind Chirac (21.27%) and Jospin (16.65%)
Mayenne: 11.87%, third behind Chirac (25.82%) and Jospin (14.40%)
Vendée: 11.75%, third behind Chirac (24.93%) and Jospin (14.76%)
Maine-et-Loire: 11.67%, third behind Chirac (22.10%) and Jospin (15.00%)
Loire-Atlantique: 11.55%, third behind Chirac (18.77%) and Jospin (17.97%)

No real surprise here. I think this was before the rivalry between Le Pen and Villiers (didn't Villiers actually help Le Pen get his signatures?), so the high percentage in Vendée was to be expected.

[PGSable]

Députés after the last legislative election:



The PS is in pink; the UMP in blue. Green is Nantes Est, which is held by a Vert. Light blue (in Loire-Atlantique) is the NC (Hunault). Dark blue is Véronique Besse (MPF), and light blue is Joël Sarlot (MPF dissident).

The president of the PS-PRG-MRC-DVG group in the National Assembly is Jean-Marc Ayrault, the député from and mayor of Nantes (see my signature). François Fillon is a député from Sarthe, and Roselyne Bachelot is a députée from Maine-et-Loire.

[PGSable]

Sarlot has been removed from office due to (unless I'm mistaken) campaign finance violations, and the first round in the by-election to replace him was held today.

Dominique Souchet, a DVD candidate backed by the UMP and the MPF, came first with a majority of votes, but he did not break 25% of registered voters, so he will run against the PS candidate Daniel David in the second round next week.

Full results
Dominique Souchet (DVD): 53.34%
Daniel David (PS): 31.35%
Sandra Cappi (MoDem): 7.45%
Philippe Terroire (DVG): 5.29%
Jean-Marie Dieulangard (FN): 2.58%

Souchet is apparently very close to Villiers, whereas Sarlot left the MPF and moved closer to the UMP.

[PGSable]

Souchet won the runoff with 59.5% of the vote (no surprise there).

[PGSable]

Bump.

I'll try to update this occasionally, though I won't be able to do so as often as I used to. I'll stick to Loire-Atlantique and Vendée, because I won't have the time to make commune maps for all five departments.

I have a map of the 2007 legislative elections ready (which I'll post in just a moment). If anyone has any requests, please let me know.

[PGSable]

Link to the gallery.

For the numbering of constituencies, see these maps: Loire-Atlantique, Vendée.

Results by constituency and by commune for Loire-Atlantique and Vendée.

The colors are:

• Red: PS.
• Green: Verts in Loire-Atlantique I (de Rugy).
• Orange: MoDem in Loire-Atlantique V (Perrion).
• Blue: UMP; NC in Loire-Atlantique VI (Hunault) and Vendée I (Préel).
• Yellow: DVD in Vendée I (Lebœuf).
• Purple: MPF in Vendée IV (Besse); dissident MPF in Vendée V (Sarlot).

(I'm not familiar with Lebœuf. The MPF is notorious for running candidates under the DVD banner, so he might be a member of the MPF.)

Three candidates won a majority in the first round, thereby avoiding a runoff: Guédon (UMP in Vendée III), Besse (MPF in Vendée IV), and Sarlot (dissident MPF in Vendée V).

Note that two communes are split between constituencies: Nantes (Loire-Atlantique I, II, III, IV, and V) and La Roche-sur-Yon (Vendée I and II). Those communes are colored with the color of the party that won the most votes. Nantes is shaded in blue for the first round because, even though the PS received more votes than the UMP in Loire-Atlantique II, II, IV, and V combined, it did not run a candidate in Loire-Atlantique I; in that constituency, the UMP candidate (Le Ridant) finished first in the first round and lost to the Vert candidate (de Rugy) in the runoff.

[PGSable]

Interesting. I can make maps for 2004 and 2008.