Will It All Come Down to Ohio?

[HoopsCubs]

Regardless of how many different electoral vote scenarios I crunch, the answer keeps converging to one state: Ohio.

Yes, it is 9 months before Election Day, and there is still a lot of intrigue left to unfold, but I am pretty convinced now based on my own research and reading many of your inputs that Ohio is the key to this election.  It's difficult to see the winner of Ohio not being elected (or re-elected) President.

Everyone stills wants to focus on Florida, but even though the difference in popular vote in 2000 was smaller in Florida than Ohio, Florida will be a longer-shot than Ohio in my opinion.  

The Democrats' 3 main formulas are simple (though not easy, of course):

(a) Ohio+2000 Gore states-Minnesota = 270 = Presidency
(b) Ohio+New Hampshire+West Virginia+2000 Gore states-Minnesota-Iowa = 272 = Presidency
(c) winning Ohio = loss of manufacturing jobs+steel tariffs+major healthcare concerns+rushed Iraq war with no peace plan+counties trending Democratic+unpopular Governor=not easy

This is the state where I would expect Kerry (or whoever the nominee is) to spend the most time and invest the most money.   If the Democrats win Ohio, it will be a slim margin, no doubt, less than 1% difference in popular vote.  And there is no way that the Bush machine will roll over in Ohio. I would expect Rove to pull out all stops to keep Ohio.  They too understand how important a 20 electoral vote state is to their re-election bid.

As has been pointed out by many of you, there is no popular Democratic figure in Ohio to guarantee an inside win.   As far as neighboring states go, perhaps Senator Evan Bayh of Indiana, or Governor Ed Rendell of Pennsylvania could be logical running mates.

What do you folks think?  I know many of you, who are Republicans, are pretty convinced Ohio won't vote Democratic.  Certainly probability is on your side, but could Ohio be an upset in the making?

HoopsCubs