Spanish elections and politics IV / European Parliament campaign, diplomatic crisis with Argentina

[Flyersfan232]

Sort of seems inevitable, with a Congress this divided, right?

Would be curious to know how long those more plugged into Spanish politics think this Congress will last - couple of years? Months?

Could be weeks, but with Pedro Sánchez in charge you never know what he'll manage to pull off.

left wing bibi

[Flyersfan232]

Jesus F**king Christ

Catalan nationalism is a mental illness.

My contempt for Junts is well documented on this board, but it was someone else who described them best in my opinion during government formation. They said something along the lines that Junts is analogous to Gaetz's ilk: they are both not interested in governing, for very different reasons. Instead they prefer when viable to sow division and chaos and crises among everyone else, cause that earns points back home with a negatively polarized electorate.

I said back then it would have been better for Sanchez's position to reject Junts (but not the ERC) and if he gets voted down go to a snap vote. He would have had principles to run on and the public after seeing the results seemed to want him rather than the PP/VOX duo. They would have likely given him a actually stable government in said hypothetical elections. But now the polling, while uncertain, is seemingly back in favor of the Right. Similarly, Junts could soon or even now be topping the ERC in Catalonia, data there is lacking.

Not sure where things go, but there are quite a few ways the government could fall in the coming months, if not very quickly, if certain people want it to. If it does, Sanchez is going to need to find a way to wiggle out of the Junts fiasco.

the problem for sanchez is that a out could end up with his party out of power

[Flyersfan232]

if the left wins do fejioo resigns?

[Flyersfan232]

Who is likely to succeed Sanchez as psoe leader?

[Flyersfan232]

Who is likely to succeed Sanchez as psoe leader?

Spain has outside of a technicality never had a female PM so one could imagine several of his  impressive  PSOE deputy PMs are his natural successors. But if this experiment fails badly then it'll be someone from the Garcia-Page wing, more deep-statish, possibly more adapted to playing the game of the PP.

technicality?

[Flyersfan232]

Who is likely to succeed Sanchez as psoe leader?

Spain has outside of a technicality never had a female PM so one could imagine several of his  impressive  PSOE deputy PMs are his natural successors. But if this experiment fails badly then it'll be someone from the Garcia-Page wing, more deep-statish, possibly more adapted to playing the game of the PP.

The thing is, Pedro's deputies and Garcia-Page are all older than he is. Will Sanchez run PSOE throughout the 2020s and past 2030? If so, his successor might be someone who isn't very well known nowadays.

if there a snap election and and the right gain the majority do he have the politically capital to stay on as leader?

[Flyersfan232]

Pere Aragonés has called a snap election in Catalonia on May 12 after the regional budget turned down after the Comuns rejected an ammendment about the construction of a Vegas-esque "Hard Rock" recreational and tourist complex, the budget had the support of ERC and PSC. Junts is already planned to launch Puigdemont as lead candidate, depends in how the Amnesty Law would be in force at the moment of the election/candidate list' nominations. PSC is the main favorite to be the most voted list, but pro-independence parties could retain their majority despite the huge infightment there have ERC and Junts to lead the soberanist camp.

At national level, the whole climate is very dirty with PP and PSOE accusing each other of corruption, the PP accusing PSOE over the "Koldo case" about face masks commission contracts, and PSOE accusing PP after was known what Díaz Ayuso' partner could have a similar scandal.

what are the odds ofa snap general election  after the euros?

[Flyersfan232]

Who is likely to succeed Sanchez as psoe leader?

Spain has outside of a technicality never had a female PM so one could imagine several of his  impressive  PSOE deputy PMs are his natural successors. But if this experiment fails badly then it'll be someone from the Garcia-Page wing, more deep-statish, possibly more adapted to playing the game of the PP.

The thing is, Pedro's deputies and Garcia-Page are all older than he is. Will Sanchez run PSOE throughout the 2020s and past 2030? If so, his successor might be someone who isn't very well known nowadays.

page is currently 55 he is two years older then oldest guy to ever taken office as prime minister so i dont see age being too much of a issue

[Flyersfan232]

How much is crossover tactical voting from unionists voters in Catalonia?

[Flyersfan232]

Pedro Sánchez might resign.  This seems to be related to corruption allegations against his wife.

Never say never of course, but this is the man who refused to quit after being defenestrated by the PSOE barons - they're all gone, even Diaz -, who kept at it through successive electoral failure until he got into power - Rajoy, Iglesias and Rivera are all long gone too - and who has stubbornly clung to power against all the odds.

So yeah. Could be, but I sincerely doubt Sánchez has put himself through so many things since 2015 to suddenly quit and go out with a whimper.

its possible something very serious is about to happened regarding the corruption allegations though.

[Flyersfan232]

Strong result for the PSC, but I am here to mark the official passing of Ciudadanos, which hit the classic threshold of getting fewer votes than the Animalist Party (as well as fewer than there were blank ballots or null ballots). Won't be missed.

It appears that these upcoming European elections will finally leave the party with nothing relevant electorally,  since their last elected regional politician in Castille-Leon defected a year ago.

any chance for another party to come claim the centrist spot in spainish politics?

[Flyersfan232]

Acting Catalan premier Pere Aragonès announced today he quits from "the political front line". Aragonès stated that ERC is not willing to facilitate the investiture of Illa.  On election day Aragonès said that PSC and Junts should reach an agreement as the winning forces. It seems that ERC is rrying to deal with a complicated situation, forced to make a decision on whether supporting Illa or triggering new elections. Both options are potentially suicidal for ERC.

Puigdemont persists in postulating his candidacy, even though there’s not a pro-independence majority in parliament. His pretense is forming a coalition government with ERC and he's seeking the PSC's abstention. On election night Puigdemont made veiled threats, warning that the Pedro Sánchez government depends on the Junts MPs in Congress. The truth is that Junts and ERC are tied to the PSOE intil the Amnesty Law is passed

The PP, on the other hand, avoided to campaign on ETA and Amnesty in the Basque Country and Catalonia. The results in Catalonia were good for them, even though Vox's strength remains. Now that the campaign is over, the PP will resume its war on amnesty. Additionally PP spokespersons claim that Pedro Sánchez will sacrifice Salvador Illa to Puigdemont's altar

how long can pedro stall the Amnesty law?

[Flyersfan232]

Not to justify Milei's erratic and often childish behavior, but if Sánchez's own ministers are going to be the ones hurling insults at him first... can the Spanish government really claim a moral high ground here? I'm not that convinced myself.

sanchez did endorsed against him in the run off

[Flyersfan232]

what is this Salf party I am seeing on europe elect