Brazil General Discussion 2019: It's Slammer Time!

[Flyersfan232]

I don’t comment cause I don’t have sh**t to say but I appreciate both of y’all for keeping me up to date with Brazil

You’re welcome, if you have any questions feel free to ask.

I still firmly believe Bolsonaro will win re-election in 2022. He wasn't expected to win in 2018 and he did. Besides, the military is entirely behind him.

He has chances but not because of the military.

The military is divided. On one hand, Bolsonaro gives them tons of representation in his government and prioritized them in terms of federal budget. He did that because he WISHES that can buy him their unconditional support. So that makes them comfortable with him.

On the other hand, by being inside his government they associate their images with his image. That includes all the anti-science BS, the antivaxx craziness, the racism and authoritarianism, etc. Which can be damaging to their reputation as a serious institution, since Bolsonaro is not a serious person.

The Brazilian military came out post-dictatorship very hated, making them pursue a more clean image. Part of that includes investment on scientific projects for example, in order to make them look like specialists on some areas. Which was helpful for them to create a new image of serious and respectable institution.

Bolsonaro is destroying all that, I mean, the participation of military actors inside the Bolsonaro government. Older upper active members specifically, are very uncomfortable with that because not only it’s making more people go back to seeing them in a similar way from the past, but it’s also giving them this new image of incompetence and stupidity. The health minister was a member of the military and he was a failure, being roasted by the media and different sectors of society.

So they’re in this position of “We don’t like how Bolsonaro is making we look super-dumb but getting privileges is cool”. They will keep being parasites inside the Bolsonaro government but so far it’s unlikely they are willing to follow him in everything he does considering his image is toxic and doesn’t give them credibility.

Actually, Bolsonaro already tried to have his coup by planning to close the Supreme Court behind doors but the main military leaders refused to do so. Which made him pissed, as he wants them to be HIS military, not the military of the country. That happened at the start of the pandemic, I think May 2020.

So I think at least so far it’s unlikely that the military is willing to completely sacrifice themselves for scum like Bolsonaro. They are more independent actors than that, if they wanted a coup they most certainly would get rid of Bolsonaro as well so that they could rule without his presence destroying their reputation and credibility.

Regarding elections, there isn’t much they can or even want to do. Bolsonaro is getting crazy with the prospects of losing election so he is pushing for congress to abolish electronic voting and to go back to paper voting, since paper vote is less safe and gives him opportunities to rig.

The Supreme Court in Brazil is very corrupt

[Flyersfan232]

I truly believe Bolsonaro will win reelection.

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