Western countries where progressive politics has bright future

[SInNYC]

Things happen in waves. Often a party wins not because its ideology is popular but because the other side screwed things up (or more for a presidential system like the US, some personality is running).

Traditionally, the battle was rich vs poor, especially in more homogeneous societies (otherwise, the poor could be split). In the 80s the supposedly left parties started descending into neoliberalism, partly because they had to since the biggest economies (USA) did, and eventually had to double down on identity since thats all they had left. This led more recently to some populist conservatives taking up the mantle of the poor (as long as its limited to poor of the majority identity).

Right now, its not clear whether the left is going to triple down on identity and social issues, or find a new blend (somehow, poor + green?). But once the bigger countries figure out a winning coalition, other countries will be forced to copy with a few holdouts opting for isolation instead.