Assuming a war in January 2020, politics on the homefront would be interesting. The negative reaction to the Solemani assassination makes me think there would be immediate opposition to the war and basically no rally round the flag effect. Trump loses a huge amount of Obama-Trump voters for his 180° on regime change, with the reaction from prominent figures in the MAGA movement being like a
way bigger version of that to the 2017 Shayrat missile strike. Iran would immediately shut down the Strait of Hormuz and oil would shoot above something like $200 a barrel, causing a global recession- the only winner in the war is the domestic oil and gas industry, which probably makes a difference for Trump in close states like Texas.
There's some potential for Sanders to gain ground ahead of Super Tuesday, which I think he does with things in the activists' favor. After suffering high casualties during an amphibious invasion via the Persian Gulf, US troops head north and take Tehran in April. The insurgency and terrorist attacks dominate the news, as Trump controversially declares mission accomplished and promises withdrawal at some nebulous point while simultaneously expanding the war into Iraq with strikes against Iranian proxies. Biden ultimately wins the nomination at a contested convention after a two-way race with Sanders, but makes a laundry list of concessions to progressives- off the top of my head, a pledge to negotiate a Status of Forces Agreement with the new Republic of Iran government immediately after taking office, someone palatable to both factions as VP like Gretchen Whitmer, Chris Murphy as Secretary of State, and Ro Khanna as Secretary of Defense. The big change in the general is that the Obama-Trump voters flip back, if only for one more election. There is no Storming of the Capitol.
President Donald Trump (R-FL) / Vice President Mike Pence (R-IN)
Fmr. Vice President Joe Biden (D-DE) / Governor Gretchen Whitmer (D-MI) ✓
