2012President Barack Obama (D-IL) / Vice President Joe Biden (D-DE)
Fmr. Governor Mitt Romney (R-MA) / Senator Marco Rubio (R-FL) ✓
2016President Mitt Romney (R-MA) / Vice President Marco Rubio (R-FL) ✓
Fmr. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton (D-NY) / Senator Tim Kaine (D-VA)
Romney wins 2012 on a combination of Tea Party energy and a worse geopolitical situation (global economy crashes again in 2011 as a contagion effect from a Greek default and exit from the Eurozone, terrorism, maybe a Crimea-style Russian or Chinese power play) but doesn't end up starting a war and losing 2016 badly like he realistically would. The Romney administration is somewhat libertarian, improving latino outreach in particular, and benefits from uninterrupted economic recovery. Clinton overcorrects for Obama's perceived dovishness and social liberalism and makes the race with Sanders much closer. It's no competition when Romney's "common sense" plan for energy independence is juxtaposed with Clinton's plan for a no-fly zone in Syria.
