Andrew Yang / Joe Rogan (D) vs. Elon Musk / Kanye West (R)

[Agonized-Statism]

Businessman Andrew Yang (D-NY) / Commentator Joe Rogan (D-TX)
Businessman Elon Musk (R-CA) / Rapper Kanye West (R-WY) ✓

The two businessmen neutralize each others' outsider edge. Ultimately, an anti-incumbent swing, racism, and fears of UBI lose it for Yang in spite of Musk's own questionability during the continuing COVID-19 recession.

[Agonized-Statism]

Businessman Andrew Yang (D-NY) / Commentator Joe Rogan (D-TX)
Businessman Elon Musk (R-CA) / Rapper Kanye West (R-WY) ✓

The two businessmen neutralize each others' outsider edge. Ultimately, an anti-incumbent swing, racism, and fears of UBI lose it for Yang in spite of Musk's own questionability during the continuing COVID-19 recession.

What if the election were to take place in 2020? 2028?

Yang wins 2020, potentially by a lot. While anti-Asian racism is a huge problem right now, it's safe to say with how happy people were with their stimulus checks that the big government fearmongering is lower than usual. Not to mention Trump being off the ticket for whatever reason indicates some disaster in the White House.

2028 would be even worse for Yang given that Cold War II will have been going on for quite a while and the recession will have ended.