Why do people here think that the GOP won't win again until 2032?

[Agonized-Statism]

Arguably, the Republicans were and still are in the wilderness after 2008, with the religious right and the neocons firmly discredited. Had they lost 2016 as people were expecting, they could have developed a winning strategy for the 2020s. The Trump administration has strongly claimed the party and its brand for the populists- the GOP's core constituency, rural whites- which puts them at a mathematical disadvantage in very important states going forward. They needed to be competitive in the suburbs. The population is younger, more non-white, and more urban than in 2016, and only becoming more so with each passing year, so it'll be much harder to pull off narrow wins on reduced turnout like that again.

Trump's coalition isn't sustainable. He didn't end up doing anything. There's no wall, Hillary's not locked up, we're not out of the Middle East. His movement was gambling on him being some kind of great reformer and he wasn't. Most voters see no reason to realign to the Republicans. The winning path would have been speaking to all working-class Americans- fair trade and all that, while also embracing comprehensive immigration reform and investing in Hispanics. That GOP could have been carrying both the Southwest and the Midwest in the 2020s. Some people in the Trump movement want to go that way, but it's too late now. The brand is tarnished.