You say that you believe Louisiana will go Republican and Florida stay Democratic...I think you may have those two reversed. Recent events in Louisiana like the close re-election of Senator Mary Landrieu, and the 2003 Republican defeat of Bobby Jindal for Governor, suggest to me that the Democratic Party is hanging on better in Louisiana that in any other state in the South. And the reason should be obvious....they have far more rural white poor in Louisiana than a state like Georgia for example, and those rural white poor are far more vulnerable to a populist, anti-rich people message. The Georgia Democrats are actually paying the price for the economic boom of the 1990's, but that boom did not impact Louisiana nearly as much.
This analysis is interesting. I would have thought that since the rural white poor in Louisiana tend to be very socially conservative, they would be more GOP since politics has become more closely identified with social issues.
