Presidential Results vs. Senatorial Results, 2004

[nclib]

I compiled the differences between the Democratic Senate winner and Kerry in each state and likewise for the Republicans for Bush. For example, Byron Dorgan of North Dakota got 68.3% of the vote and John Kerry got 35.5% in North Dakota for a difference of 32.8%.

Democrats:

Dorgan, ND   32.8
Bayh, IN      22.4
Inouye, HI   21.5
Obama, IL (Open)   15.1
Reid, NV      13.2
Schumer, NY   12.8
Wyden, OR   12.043
Dodd, CT     12.039
Leahy, VT      11.7
Lincoln, AR   11.4
Mikulski, MD   8.9
Feingold, WI   5.7
Salazar, CO (Open)   4.3
Boxer, CA      3.4
Murray, WA    2.2

Republicans:

McCain, AZ    21.9
Grassley, IA   20.3
Gregg, NH   17.3
Voinovich, OH   13.0
Brownback, KS   7.2
Shelby, AL   5.1
Specter, PA    4.2
Bond, MO      2.7
Isakson, GA (Open)   -0.1
Martinez, FL (Open)   -2.7
Bennett, UT   -2.8
DeMint, SC  (Open)   -4.3
Burr, NC  (Open)   -4.4
Vitter, LA    (Open)   -5.7
Bunning, KY   -8.9
Thune, SD  (def. inc.) -9.3
Murkowski, AK   -12.5
Coburn, OK (Open)   -12.8

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Looking at this list, it seems that Democratic Senate nominees overperformed Kerry.

Who do you guys think will have the highest percentages in 2006 compared to the Kerry/Bush result of 2004?

[nclib]

Who do you guys think will have the highest percentages in 2006 compared to the Kerry/Bush result of 2004?

I compiled the percentages of the 2006 winners with the Kerry/Bush results in 2004. The best Senators compared to their party's 2004 Presidential result in their state were: Conrad, Nelson (NE), Snowe, Byrd, and Bingaman. The only Democratic winners to underperform Kerry were: Whitehouse, Menendez, and Cardin, all of whom were elected for the first time. The only Republican winners to underperform Bush were: Hatch, Corker, and Kyl. The other interesting thing is while 18 Democratic winners outperformed Kerry by 5 points or more, Snowe was the only Republican winner to outperform Bush by 5 points or more.

In addition to the obvious Democratic trend from 2004-2006, this could indicate that 2006 Democratic winners were stronger candiates than Kerry was two years ago.