nclib
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Posts: 10,305
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« on: August 26, 2017, 05:37:40 PM » |
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In the West, a lot of Dem-swinging counties are sizably Hispanic and/or Mormon (though there are still a good number aside from those). Even if McMullin's numbers are added to Trump's, there is still a Dem swing as Romney overperformed with Mormons in 2012.
West Texas, the Texas panhandle, and western Kansas already have sizeable Hispanic populations, already Republican Hispanics, and very Republican whites, so there's not much more room to swing (even if Trump improved upon Romney's numbers nationally with rural Hispanics). It is already easy to draw a couple McCain Hispanic CDs in Texas by avoiding the border and urban areas.
In the states bordering or east of the Mississippi, only the following could arguably be considered rural, that are not on the fringe of a sizeable metro area, and do not have a college town:
East Carroll, LA (though majority black) Leelanau, MI Habersham, GA Lumpkin, GA Leslie, KY Perry, KY Dukes, MA Nantucket, MA Chittenden, VT
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