Trump in the Dakotas

[nclib]

North Dakota had the largest swing to Trump, and was already very Republican. Also, ND's Senate and Governor elections had the largest Repub margins in the nation. Is the oil boom the only issue here?

Clinton was not popular among natives, especially not in the Dakotas, thanks to not really fighting the pipeline. You can see this all over; Clinton performed poorly on rezes all over and actually lost Robeson county [NC].

Cooper and Ross also lost it - quite unexpected.

[nclib]

In addition to all mentioned above Dakotas (especially North) were hotbeds of conservatively-tinged populism and isolationism most of their history. An ideal combination for Trump, who is not even so conservative (look Cruz for comparison).

I’ve always gathered that these states are extremely volatile in their electoral behaviour especially compared to cities, the South or the Pacific Northwest:

• Obama gained nineteen percentage points in ND vis-à-vis Kerry in 2004
• Bush gained 21 percentage points in ND vis-à-vis Dole in 1996
• Dukakis gained eighteen percentage points in ND vis-à-vis Mondale in 1984
• Reagan gained 32 percentage points in ND vis-à-vis Ford in 1976
• Eisenhower gained 34 percentage points in ND vis-à-vis Dewey in 1948
• FDR gained 60 percent in vote in ND in 1932 vis-à-vis Davis in 1924
• Harding gained 60 percentage points in ND vis-à-vis Hughes in 1916

• Bush gained nineteen percentage points in SD vis-à-vis Dole in 1996
• Dukakis gained twenty percentage points in SD vis-à-vis Mondale in 1984
• Reagan gained 27 percentage points in SD vis-à-vis Ford in 1976
• Eisenhower gained 34 percentage points in SD vis-à-vis Dewey in 1948
• FDR gained 50 percent in vote in SD in 1932 vis-à-vis Davis in 1924
• Harding gained 38 percentage points in SD vis-à-vis Hughes in 1916
• Theodore Roosevelt gained 50 percentage points in SD in 1904 vis-à-vis McKinley in 1896

Thus, with Trump’s appeal to a rural, white electorate it’s not surprising that these states – which Obama, Clinton and Carter came fairly close to carrying – turned sharply Republican, especially as part of the core Democratic vote among Native Americans did not remain loyal.

This seems to imply that ND and SD swing in the direction of the national swing, but swing even stronger in that direction.