Here is a way you can tell the trend in North Carolina will keep happening, the approval rating of the governor and the state assembly. Both of which are in the toilet. If they had decent approvals, then yes, the state would probably trend rep in 2016, but the rep is doing so bad at state level it will screw anyone running in 2014/16.
Whether that affects federal results much, though, is quite another matter.
It should more than in other states. The same theory could be applied to Washington, Indiana, Missouri, and I think there's a few other states who hold their governor elections in presidential years. These aren't states I'm the most familiar with, but it seems like North Carolina influences presidential elections in their state.
We elected a GOP president and a Democratic Governor in 1968, 1980, 1992, 1996, 2000, and 2004.