2004 Democratic Primary

[nclib]

In addition, it is simplistic to say that Democratic economic policies will aid southerners, particularly the "poor" ones that Dean speaks about.  Maybe the southerners believe that lower taxes and greater economic freedom will lead to better job creation for them than higher taxes coupled with social programs.  

It's also worth noting that not everyone votes primarily on economic issues.  Michael Barone notes in "The Almanac of American Politics" that social values and depth of religious commitment are a bigger indicator of political preference than income.  Bush did poorly with secular voters in '00, but did well with highly observant Catholics and Protestants.  But I know that the pattern doesn't always hold true, because Reagan wasn't highly obseranvant yet crushed Southern Baptist Jimmy Carter in 1980. An exception to every rule.

Exactly. The religious right has appealed to conservative rural southerners, but has made the Northeast and other urban areas a Democratic stronghold. As Clinton handily won the '92 election, the top two states in per capita income (CT and NJ) were only won by 6% and 2% respectively. Gore, in a 50-50 race, won them by 16% and 17%.

[nclib]

From article:

<<Once upon a time, the most successful Democratic leader of them all, FDR, looked south and said, "I see one-third of a nation ill-housed, ill-clad, ill-nourished." Today our national Democratic leaders look south and say, "I see one-third of a nation and it can go to hell.">>

It looks the the GOP neglects the Northeast just as much as the
Dems neglect the South.

<<So, four times -- 1972, 1984, 1988, and 2000 -- the Democratic candidate couldn't carry a single Southern state.>>

In 1992 and 1996, the GOP couldn't carry a single northeastern state, and in 2000 carried only one, barely, New Hampshire.

To show that the GOP is neglecting the northeast, in 1988 Bush 41 carried 8 of 11 northeast states against a Mass. native, but have only won one NE state in 3 tries against southern candidates since then.
-------
Dems are still in better shape in the south (old CSA) than the GOP is in the Northeast (from MD to ME, including DC).

Senate:

South: 13-9 GOP
Northeast:  14-7-1 Dems

House:

South: 76-55 GOP
Northeast: 55-36-1 Dems

Electoral votes in 2000 (based on 2002 districts):

South: 153-0 Bush
Northeast: 113-4 Gore

Cong. districts won by Gore/Bush in 2000 (based on 2002 districts)

South: 92-39 Bush
Northeast: 72-20-1 Gore

Governors:

South: 7-4 GOP
Northeast: 7-4 GOP