which Cong. Districts could vote (or have voted) against a gay marriage ban

[nclib]

Arizona   unsure
California   (available at SoS) looks similar to list of white + asian majority CD's that vote Democratic
Colorado   likely CO-1, CO-2, poss. CO-7
Connecticut   at least CT-1, CT-3, and CT-4 would be competitive
Delaware   unsure
District of Columbia   likely
Florida   poss. One of the So. Fla. Ones - hard to estimate county splits
Hawaii   an outside chance at either
Illinois   prob. a few Chicago CD's
Iowa   an outside chance at IA-2
Maine   ME-1 likely did
Maryland   poss. MD-3 and MD-8
Massachusetts   MA-1,MA-4,MA-7,MA-8
Michigan   prob. none with no dist dominated by Ann Arbor
Minnesota   likely MN-4 and MN-5
Missouri   outside shot at MO-1 and MO-3
Nevada   unlikely unless NV-1 contains mainly the socially liberal areas of Clark
New Hampshire   an outside chance at either
New Jersey   most of the Dem voting districts
New Mexico   unsure
New York   most NYC ones other than NY-9 and NY-13
North Carolina   outside shot at NC-4
Ohio   outside shot at OH-10 having done that
Oregon   maybe OR-3
Pennsylvania   poss. Philly area CD's
Rhode Island   an outside chance at either
Texas   none unless any CD contains enough of Austin
Vermont   likely
Virginia   VA-3 and VA-8 did
Washington   poss. Seattle area CD's
Wisconsin   WI-2

-------

Comments?

[nclib]

California   (available at SoS) looks similar to list of CD's represented by white Dems

I don't think that is accurate, even if you're counting Asians as white.

http://www.latimes.com/news/local/la-2008election-california-results,0,3304898.htmlstory

My district is represented by the Chair of the Congressional Black Caucus but we still send that Prop packin'.  I wish people wouldn't force such a racial dynamic on the gay marriage issue.

Perhaps I should have said districts with a white + asian majority that voted Democratic. CA-9 has a black representative, but not a black electorate.

While minorities are not as anti-gay as they are said to be, they still are less pro-gay than whites who vote Dem for Pres.
According to page 13 of this, every CD with a black + hispanic majority (except for CA-31 and CA-33) voted for the ban.

[nclib]

Possibly KY-03 would vote against gay marriage.  MO-05, NV-01, NY-28, NC-04, OR-03, PA-13, TX-25, and MD-04 likely would as well. 

KY-3 did not. It takes up nearly all of Jefferson County, which voted for the ban by 60,000.

[nclib]

bump for recent results and new districts

Minnesota by new CD:

Yes % (from pro-gay to anti-gay):

MN-5: 28.55%
MN-4: 38.19%
MN-3: 43.32%
MN-2: 45.95%
MN-6: 53.40%
MN-8: 54.42%
MN-1: 54.92%
MN-7: 63.53%

Maine by new CD:

(Yes %, again from pro-gay to anti-gay, though yes is pro-gay here):

ME-1: 59.03%
ME-2: 45.43%

Any ideas about Maryland/Washington (or others)?

[nclib]

Blacks may be part of the explanation, though Baltimore City was more pro-gay than PG. This also was the case in the state legislative vote. I would have thought that more well-off blacks in PG would have been more pro-gay.

IIRC, Alcon (or another Wash. poster) posted Wash's results by CD, though I can't find it.