NYT/Siena: PA--Trump +3, WI-Biden +2, MI-Trump +7, GA-Trump +10, NV-Trump +12, AZ-Trump +7

[Unbeatable Titan Susan Collins]

I think it is time to move GA out of the tossup category.

(Polling would indicate we should for NV to, but that polling notoriously overstates the GOP there)

2020 +GA means Trump needs only PA, or a combination of any two other swing states (all combinations but WI and NV)  

[Unbeatable Titan Susan Collins]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1790011165868769419

[Unbeatable Titan Susan Collins]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1790011165868769419

Two things can be true at once:

1. Biden is in a better polling position that he was a few months ago.
2. Trump still has a narrow edge.

Being on the wrong end of a toss-up race is still preferable to being a clear underdog like polling showed at the beginning of the year.

The polls are not pointing to a tossup race. Biden is still a clear underdog.

[Unbeatable Titan Susan Collins]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1790011165868769419

Two things can be true at once:

1. Biden is in a better polling position that he was a few months ago.
2. Trump still has a narrow edge.

Being on the wrong end of a toss-up race is still preferable to being a clear underdog like polling showed at the beginning of the year.

The polls are not pointing to a tossup race. Biden is still a clear underdog.

They are though? The polling averages are a tossup in MI, PA, and WI.

The polling averages have Trump up in all 3 and Biden needs all 3 three and NE-2. He at present is less than a coin flip in each one.

The chance of a coin landing on heads 3 straight times is 12.5%. Now if the states were actually true 50/50 chances Biden's odds would be better than that as there would be some correlation, but it still wouldn't reach 50%.

There is a chance that the polls are underestimating Biden, but there is at least an equal chance they are underestimating Trump (they have underestimated him in two straight elections). The margin of error works both ways.

That is not to mention that there is some polling showing that VA may be at risk. And if the Sunbelt numbers are accurate NM may be at risk as well. If Trump wins either he does not need the three rust belt swing states