Iowa GOP Straw Poll - 11 August 2007

[StateBoiler]

Events like these are really how strong is your money and how passionate are your grassroots to show up at a carnival and cast a vote. Paul has the latter and is doing okay on the former so he'll have a solid performance probably.

Easy win for Romney though as he'll be plunking out the Benjamins.

For runner-up I think it will be Huckabee in a mild upset.

Also, even though the campaigns are not taking part, the Iowa GOP can keep Giuliani, McCain, and Fred on the Straw Poll ballot, correct?

[StateBoiler]

Anyone willing to put their reputation on the line and put up a prediction?

Per iowagop.net, the speakers will be Mitt Romney, Tom Tancredo, John Cox, Ron Paul, Mike Huckabee, Duncan Hunter, Tommy Thompson, and Sam Brownback.

The people on the ballot will be Sam Brownback, John Cox, Rudy Giuliani, Mike Huckabee, Duncan Hunter, John McCain, Ron Paul, Mitt Romney, Tom Tancredo, Fred Thompson, and Tommy Thompson.

[StateBoiler]

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That's pretty nasty.

[StateBoiler]

Two things.  First, who is this John Cox guy?

He's an Illinois businessman and the chairman of the Cook County Republican Party. The media has excluded him from the debates.

It would help if he had actually won an election before.

[StateBoiler]

Romney 32.2%
Huckabee 18.4%
Brownback 15.6%
Tancredo 14.0%
Paul 9.3%
Tommy 7.4%
Fred 1.4%
Giuliani 1.3%
Hunter 1.2%
McCain 0.7%
Cox 0.3%

-I agree with some that this wasn't that good an effort for Romney. Only bigshot there and spent by far the most money and he can't even claim that 1 out of 3 participants yesterday voted for him.
-About what I expected for my man Paul.
-Bad number for Hunter.
-In the race between the 3 guys "not running", Fred beat out Giuliani and McCain.
-I guess Tommy Thompson will take the race down from 9 to 8.
-Surprised Tancredo almost did better than Brownback. Good showing for the GOP's nativist/nationalist wing.
-If Brownback gets out, you'd think most of his support would meander to Huckabee ideologically, not that that is always indicative of future support.