Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[StateBoiler]

Hopefully there isn’t a war cause war is bad

Astute analysis.

The U.S. are closing their embassy in Kiev and moving all remaining diplomatic personnel to the western Ukrainian city of Lviv, which is so far west it's about 100km from Poland. New potential retreat capital for the Ukrainian government?

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https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-02-15/russia-returning-some-troops-to-base-after-drills-interfax-says

"Russia Says Some Troops Are Returning to Base After Drills"

US equity futures up 1.3% on this news.

Great news, if true. I will be quite happy to have my expectations proven wrong.

This may have happened because Ukraine has shown signs of conceding to Russia's demand that it not join NATO. This would be a big L for the US if it happens.

Ukraine joining NATO at this point is about as likely as Turkey ever joining the EU.

One thing strikes me as weird is Ukraine's posture in this whole thing. They're not showing signs of making war preparations, like digging trenches, building pillboxes and other fortifications, setting up AA emplacements, holding military parades and other morale building exercises, show their leaders giving speeches about how they will defend every last inch of their land and expel the invaders, etc. In the late 1930's countries like Poland and China did this and then vigorously defended themselves when attacked since they  feared the Western allies would consent to Germany/Japan taking chunks out of their land if they just retreated without resisting. But now Ukraine is doing the opposite, feigning helplessness and weakness to gain sympathy from the Western allies and gain support that way? I guess the world has changed in 80 years.

I've read military criticism elsewhere saying Ukraine are not preparing for the threat of war properly, although parades do nothing.

[StateBoiler]

Ukraine joining NATO at this point is about as likely as Turkey ever joining the EU.
 

So why not tell Putin that publically.  If Russia invades then Putin will have a hell of a job trying to explain to his people why Russian blood needs to be bleed on something the West and Ukraine is already making concessions on.

Because this is geopolitics and that's not how things work. For example, everyone knows Crimea now is Russian and it is never going back to Ukraine, but they're not going to say that publicly in order to not legitimize Russia's hostile annexation of it until the Ukrainians formally agree to cede it.

Look, Singapore to throw out a random place has a right to join NATO, every country in the world including Russia does. That doesn't mean they would ever actually get approved to join. The EU are never going to allow Turkey in nowadays, they're still considered a candidate. The Russians seem to want a written-down treaty to be agreed to reorganizing Europe's security infrastructure, and that takes years, not a couple months with your forces around a border.

[StateBoiler]

Addendum: The withdrawal feint appears to be just that, a feint. What is the point of Putin continuing to throw chips onto the table, if it is a but a bluff that is not going to get him any substantive concessions? That is what puts me in the doomer camp pretty much.

https://thehill.com/policy/international/594470-nato-chief-says-it-appears-russia-is-continuing-the-military-buildup

Either the West/Ukraine are going to concede "X" to Russia that satisifes Putin (and when I say "West/Ukraine", I mostly mean Biden) or Russia will invade. If nothing happens diplomatically and Russia do not invade, this is a humiliating defeat for Putin. So for people that say "an invasion is not going to happen", I presume they're more pro-Russia minded. I wonder if they realize that if nothing is conceded diplomatically and Putin withdraws, it's a clear loss to him, because he was the one that raised the pressure to achieve change saying the status quo was unacceptable, and then no change to that status quo resulted. That is how Khrushchev was removed from power (although actually he was successful in changing the status quo in getting nukes removed from Turkey).

[StateBoiler]

The Russian invasion date is most likely the same date as the date Saddam will attack with his WMD.

14th-16th have been seen as likely time for an invasion because Putin got forces into position immediately prior, and because of the full moon (light from which is often seen as beneficial for night operations), and because it's generally viewed as sub-optimal to keep invasion forces in the field (especially in winter) for longer than necessary.

It has? Ultimately the Russians are going to do what they want, but I've not thought he was doing anything until the 21st just to have Chinese support.

[StateBoiler]

because of the full moon (light from which is often seen as beneficial for night operations),

I'm pretty sure Antifacist Ghost of Ruin the Russians have night vision goggles. If anything if you're the aggressor at night you'd rather it be pitch black so the other side can't see what's coming at them and from where.

[StateBoiler]

So, ground troops didn't actually invade.
Very minor egg on face for the US intelligence apparatus?

I think the word originally was "ready to invade by the 16th".

Decision-makers should know if they give a date then Putin probably won't invade on that date even if he was planning. It's in his interest to not have U.S. intelligence be right, and you want the element of surprise against your adversary anyway.

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Let's say the USA had real intelligence that is pretty much a smoking gun on a Russian invasion.  

How should they handle it?  

Feed all information they have to the Ukrainian government, intelligence service, and military.

[StateBoiler]

https://twitter.com/John_Hudson/status/1493964155547705351

Lot of Israelis with relatives in Russia they can currently visit without a visa.

Bit weird to say it's an Israeli decision. Under U.S. ITAR, our government has to approve all exports of such items, even to countries we already exported to exporting to other countries. So we said export Iron Dome to Ukraine while the country in possession of the system didn't even want to export? That's going in reverse.

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Why are we supposed to believe that BigSerg would have “sources” (other than maybe Russian-sponsored news outlets)?

It's a fair question for most of the people on this board.

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Which tonight? Tonight U.S. time or tonight somewhere else's time?

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I have a feeling one of Putin's main objectives is to use this as bargaining chip to legitimize Crimea annexion and essentially get Donbass regions recognized as independent or part of Russia?

If he got those, so what? Crimea is already Russian, what does Putin care if the government of Belgium recognizes that fact? Ditto Donbass, they're already by fact independent and even Ukrainian officials have admitted anonymously in a Guardian piece "people from Donbass will never be allowed to sit in government in Kiev sabotaging us from the inside".

Putin did not do this to legitimize actions that were already done. I doubt he gives a sh*t. He is doing this to change the status quo. Those two items already exist in the status quo. I can see the West perhaps offering that although it's a rhetorical climb down, because it'd allow them to give up something on paper while giving up nothing in reality.

[StateBoiler]

Ukraine is a lost cause or more precisely, we can't help a bunch of idiotic, woe-be-me, over-inflated ego, dumb as rocks, bent-over Putin please  me, ************s that there are. Zelensky this weekend pretty well pissed of NATO with his grandstanding and gave Putin his red line.

Ukraine is the shield against the toughest army on earth, having held back the Russians for over 5 years. If that were the case, how the hell is Russia capable of marching to Kiev in 72 hours? Why are you begging for NATO help now? Why are you not mobilized? Yes, NATO, please send us weapons? Where are your crews? What happened to the instructors that we trained? Why aren't they manning your schools to teach your army how to use our stuff? The one SOF battalion that met NATO standards is assigned to EUROCORPS, not Kiev. You pissed away our help for 6 years and it's our fault you can't defend yourselves?

And what the hell is wrong with your stuff? Your stuff killed Israeli tanks. They can handle T-72s.

Sanction NORD STREAM 2 now (so the Russians won't have a choice but to pay us to transport gas to Europe).

Zelensky want a timeline and roadmap to joining NATO (never mind Kiev already got all the knowledge and the criteria since the late 1990s and done squat all to meet them). Never mind that this is Putin's casus belli. Zelensky is willing to discuss a ceasefire, never mind the LNR and DNR mobilized. We've been screaming for months to get ready and this is the best you can do? If you poke the bear (asking for NATO membership timeline), don't lay down with your throat to the freaking sky (asking for a ceasefire with Putin).

[StateBoiler]

I honestly don't understand the Ukrainian strategy at all: they're not well-prepared for a war they have a pretty good idea is coming and has been telegraphed for 3 months, they seem to want this war for their nation's defense to be fought by other state's militaries, been given aid by other countries for their own troops to use but been told repeatedly other country's troops will not enter Ukraine to fight the Russians for them, yet want harsh punitive measures on Russia now that would just help the war that has a marginal chance of not occurring to even more certainly take place since the Russians would have less to lose. This is suicide.

The best thing I can come up with is Zelensky and his aids have written off eastern Ukraine, written off Crimea (I don't know if they've written off Kiev or not, we may see the capital move west), they know they'll lose a war, but they won't give up anything diplomatically to serve the broader longer-term purpose of NATO membership/EU membership for whatever Ukrainian remnant exists, and after the war use the victim card to say "NATO and Europe did not help us to the degree necessary and thousands of Ukrainians died because of your inaction" to shame their way into these alliances. Is that playing games with the lives of your citizens? Yes. I'm fully expecting Zelensky to blame the U.S. if war occurs and Ukraine loses, blaming America for all your country's problems is a global sport after all and plays well at home.

[StateBoiler]

I honestly don't understand the Ukrainian strategy at all: they're not well-prepared for a war they have a pretty good idea is coming and has been telegraphed for 3 months, they seem to want this war for their nation's defense to be fought by other state's militaries, been given aid by other countries for their own troops to use but been told repeatedly other country's troops will not enter Ukraine to fight the Russians for them, yet want harsh punitive measures on Russia now that would just help the war that has a marginal chance of not occurring to even more certainly take place since the Russians would have less to lose. This is suicide.

The best thing I can come up with is Zelensky and his aids have written off eastern Ukraine, written off Crimea (I don't know if they've written off Kiev or not, we may see the capital move west), they know they'll lose a war, but they won't give up anything diplomatically to serve the broader longer-term purpose of NATO membership/EU membership for whatever Ukrainian remnant exists, and after the war use the victim card to say "NATO and Europe did not help us to the degree necessary and thousands of Ukrainians died because of your inaction" to shame their way into these alliances. Is that playing games with the lives of your citizens? Yes. I'm fully expecting Zelensky to blame the U.S. if war occurs and Ukraine loses, blaming America for all your country's problems is a global sport after all and plays well at home.

Basically:

• they think that Putin blinks
• even if Putin doesn't blink, whatever he'll do is better than caving and/or implementing Minsk or what not.

They think that Putin blinks. They're the smaller less powerful country here. Quite the gamble.

Even if Putin doesn't blink... They could be looking at losing half their country pretty much permanently.

I feel Zelensky is looking for Ukraine to lose a war and just have someone else to blame for it. This is an absolutely stupid strategy, but how else can you explain NOT MOBILIZING YOUR MILITARY AND RESERVES?

[StateBoiler]

I honestly don't understand the Ukrainian strategy at all: they're not well-prepared for a war they have a pretty good idea is coming and has been telegraphed for 3 months, they seem to want this war for their nation's defense to be fought by other state's militaries, been given aid by other countries for their own troops to use but been told repeatedly other country's troops will not enter Ukraine to fight the Russians for them, yet want harsh punitive measures on Russia now that would just help the war that has a marginal chance of not occurring to even more certainly take place since the Russians would have less to lose. This is suicide.

What preparations do you want the the Ukrainian military to make? It is completely outclassed by Russia, there really isn't much in the way of effective defence the Ukrainians could muster against Russian air superiority or their copious amounts of short range ballistic missiles and artillery.

Is there any analysis out there expecting a meaningful defense by the Ukrainian military?

You mean like concrete bunkers or at least sandbag barriers? Boarded up windows? Explosive load buildings ready to collapse onto an advancing column? Explosive laden bridges to block an advance? Battalion and company fall back positions? Machine gun nests? An HQ?

None exists.

I mean you asked about why they aren't fully mobilizing their military. All that does is advertise juicy targets for Russian shock and awe bombardment. They might as well paint massive "bomb me" signs.

What are their defensive measures for advancing ground forces?

Zelensky is talking a big game, and it's not being matched by anything on the ground reality at all. He is providing nothing that would cause the Russian military pause and generate significant resistance that would force the Russians to bleed, meaning the Russians can just walk in and declare victory. "Forcing the Russians to bleed if they choose to invade" was the only reason a lot of countries gave Ukraine all this military equipment aid to start with. The Ukrainian defensive structure does struggle with I think I read there were 9 possible invasion routes Russia could choose, and the Ukrainians can't cover all 9. But militarily it appears they're not preparing to the point of in the end it might be that Georgia in 2008 put up a better fight.

[StateBoiler]

https://twitter.com/GMA/status/1495734868654837761

Wow, Michael Strahan. They really brought out the top-notch news journalist deserving of that interview.

(For our foreign readers, he's a former player in the NFL.)

[StateBoiler]

I honestly don't understand the Ukrainian strategy at all: they're not well-prepared for a war they have a pretty good idea is coming and has been telegraphed for 3 months, they seem to want this war for their nation's defense to be fought by other state's militaries, been given aid by other countries for their own troops to use but been told repeatedly other country's troops will not enter Ukraine to fight the Russians for them, yet want harsh punitive measures on Russia now that would just help the war that has a marginal chance of not occurring to even more certainly take place since the Russians would have less to lose. This is suicide.

The best thing I can come up with is Zelensky and his aids have written off eastern Ukraine, written off Crimea (I don't know if they've written off Kiev or not, we may see the capital move west), they know they'll lose a war, but they won't give up anything diplomatically to serve the broader longer-term purpose of NATO membership/EU membership for whatever Ukrainian remnant exists, and after the war use the victim card to say "NATO and Europe did not help us to the degree necessary and thousands of Ukrainians died because of your inaction" to shame their way into these alliances. Is that playing games with the lives of your citizens? Yes. I'm fully expecting Zelensky to blame the U.S. if war occurs and Ukraine loses, blaming America for all your country's problems is a global sport after all and plays well at home.

If Zelensky really believes that a massive Russian invasion is coming he should pull his troops back and have units in place to cut off roads and bridges in Eastern Ukraine as soon as Russian troops move in.

Western military observers in forums like this one are saying the Ukrainian military has done nothing. I'm pretty certain if that gets out to us the Russians know it too.

He should also put Eastern Ukraine under quarantine and prohibit civilian access to key communications nodes so the Russians are denied intelligence on what the Ukrainian forces are up to in Eastern Ukraine.

All the OSINT out there that is telling us about the buildup of Russian forces in Donbass and Belarus, they've moved within so many kilometers of the Ukrainian border, Russian combat engineers have built land bridges across rivers, etc., that OSINT can be done to Ukrainian forces too showing where they are moving to or lack therof as well, and the Russians have their own reconaissance satellites.

[StateBoiler]

Wouldn't be surprised if Putin recognize Donbass independent today.

Russian equities down 15% on this news

Yeah. And Putin hasn't officially done it yet 🙉🙈🙊.

Though, probably 95% he will. Unless Macron calls him right now...

Hey, if you're an investor and have balls of steel don't believe a war is going to happen, buy the dip.

[StateBoiler]

I honestly don't understand the Ukrainian strategy at all: they're not well-prepared for a war they have a pretty good idea is coming and has been telegraphed for 3 months, they seem to want this war for their nation's defense to be fought by other state's militaries, been given aid by other countries for their own troops to use but been told repeatedly other country's troops will not enter Ukraine to fight the Russians for them, yet want harsh punitive measures on Russia now that would just help the war that has a marginal chance of not occurring to even more certainly take place since the Russians would have less to lose. This is suicide.

What preparations do you want the the Ukrainian military to make? It is completely outclassed by Russia, there really isn't much in the way of effective defence the Ukrainians could muster against Russian air superiority or their copious amounts of short range ballistic missiles and artillery.

Is there any analysis out there expecting a meaningful defense by the Ukrainian military?

You mean like concrete bunkers or at least sandbag barriers? Boarded up windows? Explosive load buildings ready to collapse onto an advancing column? Explosive laden bridges to block an advance? Battalion and company fall back positions? Machine gun nests? An HQ?

None exists.

I mean you asked about why they aren't fully mobilizing their military. All that does is advertise juicy targets for Russian shock and awe bombardment. They might as well paint massive "bomb me" signs.

What are their defensive measures for advancing ground forces?

Zelensky is talking a big game, and it's not being matched by anything on the ground reality at all. He is providing nothing that would cause the Russian military pause and generate significant resistance that would force the Russians to bleed, meaning the Russians can just walk in and declare victory. "Forcing the Russians to bleed if they choose to invade" was the only reason a lot of countries gave Ukraine all this military equipment aid to start with. The Ukrainian defensive structure does struggle with I think I read there were 9 possible invasion routes Russia could choose, and the Ukrainians can't cover all 9. But militarily it appears they're not preparing to the point of in the end it might be that Georgia in 2008 put up a better fight.

Where are you getting this idea that Russia's first act would be to engage in a general ground invasion? That isn't how they work. They have vast batteries of SRBMs that are capable of striking Kiev without ever setting foot on Ukrainian territory. Eastern Ukraine would be levelled before any serious movement of armour. It isn't like the Russians are going to engage in massed tank battles; their greatest advantage is the ability to bomb opponents back into the stone age, they would obliterate Ukrainian positions from well beyond the horizon.

Find me my post I said we're engaging in massive tank battles? Go back a month or so I said the Ukrainians can't do anything to Russia's Black Sea ships, so the smart thing to do for the Russians would be the ships and their air force blow up armor and equipment before you even send in ground forces. But if they never send in ground forces, they don't change reality on the ground as far as government of control. If Russia do nothing but shoot a bunch of missiles they won't accomplish whatever their end goal is, Zelensky's in power, Ukraine's more anti-Russian and furious, and the West will do their sanctions. Whatever the end goal is (territory, darker black line border for Donbass, regime change), they have to actually invade and occupy. What is Ukraine's response to all these ground forces? Are they planning on allowing the Russians to march straight into Kiev without resistance and put Zelensky in handcuffs as it currently looks?

[StateBoiler]

Some guy got so stressed, he said, he wants to take DNR/LNR into Russia Federation  Putin corrected him, that nobody is talking about that now.

It was Naryshkin, the head of  Foreign Intelligence Service, LMAO. He was sh*tting his pants, it seemed.

https://twitter.com/SimonOstrovsky/status/1495792765279551488

If this was pre-recorded, I view that as probably intentional. If they didn't want to leave that in there - it was a mistake - wouldn't you just edit it out?

[StateBoiler]

Question: Does Russia recognize Abkhazia and South Ossetia as independent states?  Last I recall it was no but I could be wrong about that.

Here's the Wikipedia list of unrecognized and partially recognized states. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_states_with_limited_recognition

South Ossetia declared its independence in 1991. It is currently recognised by 5 UN member states (Russia, Syria, Nicaragua, Venezuela, and Nauru), and four non-UN member states (Abkhazia, Artsakh (Nagorno-Karabakh), Transnistria, and the Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic). One additional UN member state (Tuvalu) had recognised South Ossetia, but subsequently withdrew its recognition.

Abkhazia declared its independence in 1999. It is currently recognised by 6 UN member states (Russia, Syria, Nicaragua, Venezuela, Nauru, and Vanuatu), and three non-UN member states (South Ossetia, Artsakh (Nagorno-Karabakh) and Transnistria). One additional UN member state (Tuvalu) had recognised Abkhazia, but subsequently withdrew its recognition.

I'd like to go to the Vanuatu foreign ministry and ask "why do you recognize Abkhazia and not recognize South Ossetia?" Just be interested in hearing the logic.

I imagine Syria, Nicaragua, and Venezuela will follow the Russians in short order on recognition of Luhansk and Donetsk. Transnistria is only recognized by Abkhazia, Artsakh, and South Ossetia. Ditto Artsakh.

I'll watch Putin's speech later, but confirms what I've said of Putin's imperialism that he believes more in the pre-1918 Russian Empire than the Soviet Union as his guiding light.

[StateBoiler]

Guardian live news feed:

I have been talking to a senior official from an east European country after Putin’s staged security council meeting. The official expressed concern about splits in allied resolve in the face of a Russian recognition of Luhansk and Donetsk “independence”.

”It might be not a direct invasion, but instead ... recognition, then maybe dragging on some days or weeks before Russian so-called ‘peacekeepers’ enter Luhansk and Donetsk occupied territories,” the official said. “Then it’s a grey zone, where you are not sure if that triggers sanctions, especially for for some European Union countries which are further from from the front line.”

[StateBoiler]

What exactly are the borders of these “states” that Putin just recognized? It’s in contention, no?

Read a tweet that a person in the Federation Council (Russian legislature's upper house) said it only applies to the current borders of the "line of control", not the whole of the Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts. The separatists each control about a third of their oblasts' territory.

[StateBoiler]

https://twitter.com/AshleyRParker/status/1495925054298894341
Wow! True, but WOW!

I wonder, if Biden will backtrack it, though, after the criticism of MSM.

I think it's going to be a muddle until a few meetings get held where everyone agrees on how to properly portray this.

Smart action of sorts from Putin in my opinion because he's increased the crisis while in reality doing nothing: Donetsk and Luhansk are independent? They already were through Ukraine being unable to control them.