CONGRESSIONAL RESULTS MEGA THREAD

[StateBoiler]

I don't disagree with you. But I rather have a Clinton tier ground organization than Biden's (lack of), especially with Hispanic voters.

Okay. But this is the 2nd presidential election in a row against a severely flawed Republican nominee where Democratic local organization has failed them. I don't buy that's due entirely to Covid. In the past 6 federal elections going back to 2010, there's a grand total of 1 where it went well for the Democrats outside of the presidency: 2018. There's something systemic there.

[StateBoiler]

I don't disagree with you. But I rather have a Clinton tier ground organization than Biden's (lack of), especially with Hispanic voters.

Okay. But this is the 2nd presidential election in a row against a severely flawed Republican nominee where Democratic local organization has failed them. I don't buy that's due entirely to Covid. In the past 6 federal elections going back to 2010, there's a grand total of 1 where it went well for the Democrats outside of the presidency: 2018. There's something systemic there.

Democrats did well in the Senate in 2012, they picked up Indiana and held North Dakota and Missouri. The only reason they still have a shot of 50 seats in the Senate in the Georgia runoffs is because of how well they did with that Senate class.

I’d also point out that Dems were coming off of giant wins going into 2010 and had a Dem president’s midterm for the only two years where Rs did particularly well. I don’t think Dems underperformed baseline much at all in the 2010s - if anything they overperformed.

2008: 55 U.S. Senate seats
2016: 46
2020: 49, 50, or 51

Senate seats are statewide, by definition not gerrymandered.

2008: 256 U.S. House seats
2016: 194
2020: 222 or 223

2008: 28 Governorships
2016: 16
2020: 24

Governor seats are statewide, by definition not gerrymandered.

2008 to 2016: loss of 968 seats in state legislatures per Ballotpedia (Barack Obama's lasting embrace to the national Democratic Party organization; if you actually care about left-wing or liberal causes and getting them implemented, any time Barack Obama's name comes up this should be the first thing you should mention)
2018: Democrats gained 350 seats per Wikipedia
2020: CNAlysis projected Democrats to win 123 state legislature seats, they instead lost seats and there appears to not be a final number yet, looks like as of a couple weeks the Republicans netted an 86-seat gain, clawing back about 25% of the 2018 losses

Throw on top of this we have a midterm coming up where the president's party always loses seats.

If they overperformed, wow Democrats are f#@&ing terrible at their jobs.

[StateBoiler]

I don't disagree with you. But I rather have a Clinton tier ground organization than Biden's (lack of), especially with Hispanic voters.

Okay. But this is the 2nd presidential election in a row against a severely flawed Republican nominee where Democratic local organization has failed them. I don't buy that's due entirely to Covid. In the past 6 federal elections going back to 2010, there's a grand total of 1 where it went well for the Democrats outside of the presidency: 2018. There's something systemic there.

Democrats did well in the Senate in 2012, they picked up Indiana and held North Dakota and Missouri. The only reason they still have a shot of 50 seats in the Senate in the Georgia runoffs is because of how well they did with that Senate class.

I’d also point out that Dems were coming off of giant wins going into 2010 and had a Dem president’s midterm for the only two years where Rs did particularly well. I don’t think Dems underperformed baseline much at all in the 2010s - if anything they overperformed.

2008: 55 U.S. Senate seats
2016: 46
2020: 49, 50, or 51

Senate seats are statewide, by definition not gerrymandered.

2008: 256 U.S. House seats
2016: 194
2020: 222 or 223

2008: 28 Governorships
2016: 16
2020: 24

Governor seats are statewide, by definition not gerrymandered.

2008 to 2016: loss of 968 seats in state legislatures per Ballotpedia (Barack Obama's lasting embrace to the national Democratic Party organization; if you actually care about left-wing or liberal causes and getting them implemented, any time Barack Obama's name comes up this should be the first thing you should mention)
2018: Democrats gained 350 seats per Wikipedia
2020: CNAlysis projected Democrats to win 123 state legislature seats, they instead lost seats and there appears to not be a final number yet, looks like as of a couple weeks the Republicans netted an 86-seat gain, clawing back about 25% of the 2018 losses

Throw on top of this we have a midterm coming up where the president's party always loses seats.

If they overperformed, wow Democrats are f#@&ing terrible at their jobs.

The disturbing thing is that even after four years of Donald Trump, Democrats still are nowhere close to where they were in 2008 (Dems aren’t even back to their paltry 2012 levels in state legislatures).

The pattern in state legislatures and the US House since 1994 seems to be for Dems to lose big, recover somewhat, and then lose even more than what they recovered shortly after.

That's natural though for a party that legislatively enjoyed permanent majority status, and has lost it only recently. This redistricting cycle coming up is pretty much the 2nd one since the 1930s where Republicans will control the process more nationally than Democrats will. Even 1990 census redistricting, you still had a ton of rural Democrats at a state legislature level, and 2000 was still in the middle of a change.

Looking at how low Dems are in state legislatures, it is pretty hard to see how they fall much further.  They have been totally wiped out in the South and border states as well as the rural Midwest.

Yup. Ready to be replaced for 2nd-party status.