Obama-Trump Districts:
ME-Rural
WI-Rural
MO-Metro
Romney Clinton Districts:
TX-Metro
AZ-Metro
And just in case anybody was wondering: the reason why the average EC margin is smaller than both the 2012 and 2016 EC margins is because Obama barely won MO-Metro in 2012, while Clinton barely won AZ-Metro & TX-Metro in 2016. In terms of average, all 3 of these jurisdictions ended up being won by the GOP by much more than the Dem won it by in the other election, thereby awarding their EVs to the GOP on the averaged map.
I am glad I took my biased lens off.. Missouri is going to be as Republican as Utah eventually!
Fun fact: MO-Rural had the largest margin in favor of Trump of any other state (Trump +54), with TN & KY (Trump +53), NE & OK (Trump +52) & WV (Trump +51) nipping at its toes!
haha yes! And last month in HD 144 there was literally a perfect Democratic candidate and a flawed Republican candidate in historically Democratic territory but the Democrat still lost by 5 points even if we managed to pick up an exurban seat.
If Missouri Democrats could get Platte and Clay County as solid democratic locally and Jefferson and St Charles as swing counties locally they may have a chance to compete state wide. But other wise its dead. Even if there maybe a last hurrah for constitutional officers in 2018/2020.
My feeling is that even if the state is elastic the suburbs are just too white and the rural areas are too southern cultured and too white to even be on the fringe of competitiveness. It is not like downstate Illinois, rural Kentucky, rural West Virginia and all these other places where Trump did well yet local Democrats still held their own despite coattails. In Missouri it was a blood bath all the way down the ballot.
NE Indiana the same way. Looking at the 3rd congressional district:
Allen (Fort Wayne) - 50.5% of votes in the district:
Trump 83,867 57.4%
Clinton 55,379 37.9%
Johnson 6,801 4.7%
Other Counties - 49.5% of votes in the district:
Trump 107,723 75.4%
Clinton 25,869 18.1%
Johnson 9,328 6.5%
So when the two vote counts are roughly similar, Trump got 20% more votes in other counties, while Clinton got less than half. Her worst county she got 15.5% of the vote in (Johnson at 7.0% there), and all but 2 of the 11 she was under 20%.
