Democratic Freak States Holy Saturday results thread (1st caucuses begin @1pmET)

[Old Man Willow]

I have no clue, but my predictions are ...

WA: 62% Sanders, 37% Clinton
AK: 54% Sanders, 45% Clinton
HI: 53% Sanders, 46% Clinton

Low population northern states seem to hate Hillary, can't imagine her getting anyway near 45% in AK.

[Old Man Willow]

If he can make margins this big in these states + CA + most of the remaining states -MD and NY, then we might be onto something.

No-way he is making these margins other places. And honestly does not need to either. He needs 60%+ in CA & he will still get 6-7 big wins.

I don't think he can win but theoretically he has to beat her (maybe narrowly - not lose) in NY, PA, NJ, PR, MD which I don't see happening

https://www.change.org/p/the-young-turks-dnc-debate-on-the-young-turks
If somehow the candidates get an April debate on The Young Turks, Bernie's popular vote could easily increase by over 5% in all the states thereafter.

Why would Hillary agree to a debate hosted by anti-Hillary hacks?

[Old Man Willow]

No1 said he will CA BY 70% you troll.

And Republicans will win NH in the general... Bernie has less than zero chance of winning the nomination, sorry.

But Republicans might win NH in the general. I have serious doubts that you've ever been to NH, or known anyone from NH.

Trump polls terribly in NH. It's one of his worst "swing" states. It's not going GOP.

[Old Man Willow]

Against Bernie he does. But he had a lot of votes & won the GOP vote big. Somehow NH I think in some meshes with Trump, if Trump can tone down his profanity & vulgarity. It will be a close call IMO

You're right... it will be a close call whether Clinton breaks 60% there or not. Hillary would do as well in NH as Bernie.

TN, unlike you, I have actually been to New Hampshire. In fact, I'm in New Hampshire right now. With that said, there is no such thing as 'angry NH women', and NH is just as much of a swing state as IA, OH, VA, FL, and CO.

There has been no indication that VA will be a swing state this year. Another state where Trump struggles to poll at even 40%.

[Old Man Willow]

Crazy numbers from these states. They definitely help him make up for his extreme under performance in the south.

I mean, kinda. If these states had anywhere near the population the southern states had, Sanders might  have had a chance.

True. CA is going to be big this cycle.

Please. Even if Sanders managed a win there it wouldn't be by anywhere near the margin he would need to lead in pledged delegates.

[Old Man Willow]

Crazy numbers from these states. They definitely help him make up for his extreme under performance in the south.

I mean, kinda. If these states had anywhere near the population the southern states had, Sanders might  have had a chance.

Washington has only 6 less delegates than North Carolina. Nothing to scoff at.

He's only winning this big because it's a caucus. His win in WI will be nothing compared to this.

[Old Man Willow]

Bernie would probably win AK against Trump in the general.

No. AK wants to drill, baby drill. Bernie being against anything that might harm the environment will not play there.

[Old Man Willow]

Bernie even won blacks in Vermont.

ahahahahahahahahaha You don't realize how ridiculous you sound, do you?

'BERNIE DID WELL WITH MINORITIES!!!!'

- 'When and Where?'

- 'WITH...UH... BLACKS!!!'

- 'Wait... what? Where?'

- 'IN...... UH........ VERMONT!'

Do you feel this annoyed because Clinton is not doing so well in these states or because you feel the campaign you support is potentially threatened and could have the nomination swept from under in a reverse sweep a la southern Clinton states?

Even if Bernie swept the remaining states (impossible because of NY & MD) he still wouldn't win.