French National Assembly Elections, 06/30-07/07

[lfromnj]

Would be interesting to see both LR and PS in some confidence and supply agreement .

[lfromnj]

If Macron somehow pulls out a victory with a renewed mandate what would he do? Would there be any tuition/college acceptance reforms?

[lfromnj]

So if NUPES negotiations fail will PS be willing to work with Macron?

[lfromnj]

So if NUPES negotiations fail will PS be willing to work with Macron?

At this point absolutely not. Macron would have to do a serious u-turn, and while stranger things have happened,  I would not count on it.  Maybe later after the results in a coalition,  but again,  that's not how Macron likes to do things.

At this stage if Melenchon and PS can't come to a deal, then it's far more likely the traditional parties of the Left run as their own alliance. LFI is really just Melenchons show, and he has never been an electoral asset unless the contest can be presidentialized with his personality.  He was able to do that in the 2022 legislatives, but with such a short time window it doesn't seem viable.

Still interesting that PS has overtaken LFI. Probably the best hope for those hoping for an anti Le pen win in 2027. Macrons party will have a lot of anti incumbency riding against them while LFI is more unpalatable to the median French voter than Le pen. PS might have a social democratic argument and Hollande will be forgotten about by that point.

[lfromnj]

So if NUPES negotiations fail will PS be willing to work with Macron?

At this point absolutely not. Macron would have to do a serious u-turn, and while stranger things have happened,  I would not count on it.  Maybe later after the results in a coalition,  but again,  that's not how Macron likes to do things.

At this stage if Melenchon and PS can't come to a deal, then it's far more likely the traditional parties of the Left run as their own alliance. LFI is really just Melenchons show, and he has never been an electoral asset unless the contest can be presidentialized with his personality.  He was able to do that in the 2022 legislatives, but with such a short time window it doesn't seem viable.

Yeah I think the bigger thing is that if say Parliament is fairly similar in composition Macron will have more leeway to work with the left rather than being forced to work with LR.

[lfromnj]

So if NUPES negotiations fail will PS be willing to work with Macron?

At this point absolutely not. Macron would have to do a serious u-turn, and while stranger things have happened,  I would not count on it.  Maybe later after the results in a coalition,  but again,  that's not how Macron likes to do things.

At this stage if Melenchon and PS can't come to a deal, then it's far more likely the traditional parties of the Left run as their own alliance. LFI is really just Melenchons show, and he has never been an electoral asset unless the contest can be presidentialized with his personality.  He was able to do that in the 2022 legislatives, but with such a short time window it doesn't seem viable.

Yeah I think the bigger thing is that if say Parliament is fairly similar in composition Macron will have more leeway to work with the left rather than being forced to work with LR.

I don't know why you're so desperate to make a Macron-left alliance happen. It's not going to happen. Macron had every opportunity to court support from the center-left for the past 7 years, and he did the exact opposite. He scooped up the more shamelessly careerist wing of the PS in 2017 already. What's left actually cares about left-wing policies to at least some extent, and it's been exceedingly clear that left-wing policy is something Macron cannot countenance.

Besides, why would the left even want to prop him up at this point? He's a widely reviled lame duck President. Supporting him would just mean being dragged with him into political irrelevancy.

I’m not, I hope for the current configuration where Macron commands power but LR has to support but unfortunately LR is being stupid .

[lfromnj]

Is Le pen basically winning all the Melenchon Le pen voters from 2022?

[lfromnj]

RN+REC+the two small random far right parties sum up to 38%. Add in LR and its 45%. Obviously these parties can have varying bases. Upper class REC/LR voters have a pretty decent chance of voting against a more populist RN candidate in the runoff and working class RN voters may not like LR/RN

[lfromnj]

Doesn’t Macron resigning mean new presidential elections ?

[lfromnj]

Doesn’t Macron resigning mean new presidential elections ?

Yup, that was the case when DeGaulle resigned in 1969 and his successor Pompidou died in office in 1974.

So does it reset the presidential term as well?

[lfromnj]

I saw on FT that Macron was worried about budget cuts he had to make.

[lfromnj]

Doesn’t LR still have a relatively strong presence in the far weaker Senate ?

[lfromnj]

Yeah RN doesn’t really need a coalition for the first round. They will place 1st or 2nd in  the vast majority seats they need to win.

[lfromnj]

which frankly they're entitled to given Glucksmann's performance.

Can you keep your personal bias out?

It's very annoying.

But they are?
I don’t care how the left splits seat but the fact is based on the most recent poll which we could call the EU election PS did better than LFI.

[lfromnj]

Yeah it makes sense to give LFI the safer seats as iirc Melenchon actually was losing by 2017 Le pen margins to Le Pen.

[lfromnj]

Any polling on what the typical pro Macron voter does if faced with just a RN and NFP candidate in a runoff? Any guesses?

Polling between Le Pen and Melenchon showed Le pen winning by 30 a couple months ago. Not sure how it would be against say a PS candidate .

[lfromnj]

In the EU elections what percent of Melenchons votes were not student or Muslim votes ?

[lfromnj]

So does anyone have the breakdown of who got the more swingy seats between LFI/EELV/PS.

[lfromnj]

Lefties are picking fascism . Put Macron over your left wing dreams and centrists will vote for Macron.

[lfromnj]

Every single piece could fall the right way for the NFP, and they still would not manage to convince more than a third of the electorate to vote for them or come close to winning power. On the French political scene, the Left as a whole sits on the fringe, in practice a more marginal actor than the RN.

The response to this is to say that it is a result of the center/center-right and the left being too right-wing/centrist and too complacent with the far-right. The ideas could not possibly be wrong and the effectiveness of vigilance is unquestionable, therefore the solution is for everyone to shift a bit more to the left and become more vigilant.

But I mean, if it was the Right winning less than 30% of the vote against a dominant radical Left, with the remains being occupied by varying stripes of the center-left; would anyone seriously suggest the reverse? It would be much more helpful to ask what exactly it is in left-wing politics that makes people hate them more than they hate the fascists.

There isn’t much Le Pen /Melenchon polling but I think the shift in France really happened during the riots over the Muslim kid who was shot. Tony could tell more though. As far back as 2018 it was definitely Mélenchon seen as the true opposition .

[lfromnj]

I assume most of the Ciotti seats are in more upscale locations ?

[lfromnj]

https://x.com/VLautard/status/1803699066540302775?s=33
NFP losing by 8 against RN but Macron still leading. I stand against the far right for now by still supporting Macron

[lfromnj]

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/20/world/europe/french-election-antisemitism-jews.html

Others did not find this “normal.” In 2022, Mr. Klarsfeld co-signed an article in the Libération newspaper headlined “No to Le Pen, daughter of racism and antisemitism.” This is one measure of the distance traveled by the National Rally in two years, as the party stands on the brink of a possible victory that could hand it the prime minister’s position.

He still hasn’t endorsed RN but says they are the lesser evil in a second round without Macron.

[lfromnj]

Not trying to defend Macron here (I'd vote for the Popular Front unless my constituency's candidate was from LFI) but it seems that the Macronistas are the only coalition that hasn't had some form of significant chaos.

Anyone with more knowledge of French politics know any more about the RE campaign?

How do you have an L avatar and somehow prefer both Le Pen and NFP within the last week over Macronism?

[lfromnj]

Virgin Sunak telling half the Tories about the election date so they could bet on it vs Chad Macron not even telling his PM