House Results without Gerrymandering

[lfromnj]

NY:  Not sure what district you complain about? Overall the map was fairly decent for Democrats in a neutral year like this. Rs should have only won 6-7 seats this year if it went like the rest of the nation. Anyway R's could sweep LI but we could see Dems holding a seat under a different configuration. There could be other R seats though such as south Brooklyn. No change agreed IMO.
CT: Its a leftover incumbent mander from the 2000's that now functions as a D gerrymander. Same point overall R+1
NJ: Not sure. The rest of the North Jersey Dems did fine other than Pascrell so it all depends how Pallone does in the end. I have him under a light Biden seat and he did underperform Biden by a bit so not sure. His seat would be very similar to parts of Long Island as well. R+1
Maryland: Im fine with the map. Carrol is closer to Baltimore anyway.  Ruppersberger's seat does have a pretty blatant arm into super white D parts of Baltimore but I can't see it being anything but a Biden seat who he matched.
PA: he barely outperformed Biden in what should have been a pretty decent Trump seat. R+1. Houlahan's seat should have been more competitive as well but they drew Dean's seat out to tri split Berks. She still would easily win though. Cartwright's seat seems a bit dem friendly on the margins(aka cherry picking for less R precincts) but overall he still won by enough to survive even with a point reduced margin.)
VA: same as a tough call. However remember it could have been Wexton's seat that flipped as well under another NOVA configuration or you could only have 3 D leaning seats in NOVA to begin with.
Rhode Island:

 Providence is split but it doesn't really affect partisanship. My fair map has RI02 at Biden +13 but RI01 takes in Cranston so Fung doesn't even have a shot without it.


NC: Its probably R+1 due to the Charlotte area not being split in 2. Possible that the new Wake seat is more R as well although ill give it to the Dems. The tough call would be a narrow Trump seat in the Sandhills area with the Lumbee where the Dems did have a Lumbee candidate this year. However I think Bishop still wins this seat with his better connections than the new R  The rest of the seat also had pretty terrible black turnout. Could be anywhere from R+2 to D+1 so I just took it as R+1. Pretty clear this map was designed to minimize swing seats in an expected R wave year.

SC: This one is really tough to call. Mace probably survives, she outperformed Trump by like 7 points. A fair map gives her a Biden +3 seat. The more interesting question is how to draw the rest of low country.  The Columbia metro area of Lexington +Richland and a small rural of Fairfield county is 118 people off a district. Its Biden  +10. That still leaves the black belt area but that seat would be 47% black but only Biden +6. I think its possible this could have flipped this year especially as my guess is McMaster won it by like 4-5 points. Ill give it to the R's. The other option is to truly preserve a black seat one would draw the black belt into Columbia which gives the Columbia seat to the R's.

GA: A fair map would be 7-6-1 with 7 Trump seats, 7 biden seats but the 7th Biden seat going for Perdue and Loeffler in the runoff so Dems would easily have 6 seats and might have 7 but Loudermilk still probably hangs on due to coattails.

FL: Complicated.

South Florida should be interesting, A truly fair map likely doesn't have the Collier Hialeah district even if that isn't from DeSantis himself . Still Dems will lose all 3 Dade seats even if Diaz Balarts has to cross into Broward. The question is this northward shift cause one of the white Dem seats to flip?

I still stand by the Jacksonville only seat for North FL although DeSantis narrowly carried while Demings narrowly carried it as well as drawn by the state house(which I think was the ideal configuration) . I will give this to the Dems.

Yeah St.Pete could go D although its possible that all 3 Dem primary candidate wins and the progressive black D (Michelle Rayner) wins the primary due to a split white vote in the primary. IIRC Luna just fully slept for the general while Lynn ran a very solid campaign.  

So yeah we can go with D+2  but I see a path for R+1 as well. Tough to call this. Let's go with D+1?

Alabama: yeah the 2 Safe D seats was fantasy like Louisiana but unlike yeah the Black belt still has enough for like a Biden +11ish seat.  Ivey probably wins it by a decent margin, but Sewell is solid enough to hold it. D+1

Louisiana: The Baton Rouge seat would still lean R so that is an R hold so agreed no change.

TX:  Well if you remove the Fajitas then there would still be an R leaning seat.  However yeah this would  be baaaaaaaaad for the GOP overall. Im going with  to D+4. Atleast 1 more in Houston, 1 more Dallas, Toss in another In San Antonio /Austin corridor or 2 even.

Oklahoma: This is tough to say. Horn definitely goes for a rematch considering she did a sacrificial lamb senate run and Bice barely outperformed Trump. Horn won Oklahoma county by 4.5. A fair map would either just have the county whole with a decent bit of deviation or cut off around 5k people which would give Horn a 5 point win in the district for her senate run .Honestly I will give this one to the Dems.

Ohio: Yeah we can go with D+1 although the map could have been worse for Dems if say the Akron seat included all of Stark and only the southern portion of Summit. However a Columbus/Cleveland suburban seat could have gone bad for R's so yeah D+1.

Illinois:  Chicago Land required a lot of cracking to get 12 Dem leaning seats. With a cut R seat even if a lot of loss was downstate the seats had to expand . Reminder Robin Kelly's seat goes far south as Danville ! Pretty clearly R+3.

Michigan: Well the commission wanted to either place Macomb into the progressive corner of Oakland or make that super D western Michigan seat. A fair map would have neither.  However I think Gibbs pulls a *Kent and still loses a narrow Trump Grand Rapids seat.
edit :LOL, I meant to type Kent as in Joe Kent but I just made this edit incase if anyone is confused

Colorado: Nope Colorado 8th was almost exactly where it should have been in partisanship.  I don't see why Democrats should have  5 Safe D seats. The issue is that its located on the northside of the metro instead of the southside. Along with that Denver's 3 Collar counties + Douglas is exactly 3 seats. Still a Dem hold. Yeah I think Boebert loses in a better map without Hispanic Democrat whining. D+1
AZ: Yeah the Tucson seat should be a bit more D leaning.

NV: R+2 . Horsford still underperformed Biden by a decent margin.

CA:  Not sure which oddities favor Republicans in this map. Splitting Sacramento to keep Bera secure, there was a last-minute change by Sara Sadhwani to secure Levin by having CA 50 go inland in a pretty weird arm. Having CA 41 take in Palm Springs etc. In the end though I don't think any other Dem could lose other than maybe Levin

Oregon: pretty weak to call it a soft one even if it slightly failed. Don't forget about the Southern Oregon seat as well. Anyway a Salem based seat would obviously go R this year as a new open seat. A fair Oregon map probably has like a Biden +8-9 Clackamas seat along with Yamhill and Eastern Multnomah. However, on the other hand without drawing the 5th into Bend Schrader would still win his primary. Overall, I will have Schrader survive but the southern seat go R. R+1 but from a different perspective and could be R+2.

If I missed or didn't speak about a state its because I agree.(eg TN) at D+1)

[lfromnj]

Oregon 2 is only so Republican because they removed Bend from it. Its a clear R pack

[lfromnj]

Oregon 2 is only so Republican because they removed Bend from it. Its a clear R pack

Removing Bend made the seat perhaps 2-3% more Republican I guess?

A fair oregon 2nd could be as swingy as trump+12

[lfromnj]

Oregon 2 is only so Republican because they removed Bend from it. Its a clear R pack

Removing Bend made the seat perhaps 2-3% more Republican I guess?

A fair oregon 2nd could be as swingy as trump+12

Ah.
How did the OR-02 that Ds drew vote?

Like Trump+25 iirc

[lfromnj]

Oregon 2 is only so Republican because they removed Bend from it. Its a clear R pack

I was considering geography. Eastern and Southern Oregon are very Republican and not very populated. I think it makes more sense to create a central Oregon district. There's also the option of a Lane-Deschutes district.

If you consider geography than maybe look at the mountain range dividing bend from Lane ? There isn't even a direct road IIRC.  A perfect central Oregon seat already can exist based around Marion/Polk/Benton/Linn .

[lfromnj]

Oregon 2 is only so Republican because they removed Bend from it. Its a clear R pack

Removing Bend made the seat perhaps 2-3% more Republican I guess?

A fair oregon 2nd could be as swingy as trump+12

Ah.
How did the OR-02 that Ds drew vote?

Like Trump+35 iirc

Really??? Wow.

Mistyped, I meant to press a 2.

[lfromnj]

Wisconsin: A more reasonable map would have a highly competitive WI-01, though it probably wouldn't have flipped D this year.

Where do you get a more competive Wisconsin 1st? It literally already is highly competitive and Ever's only lost it by a few hundred votes after losing Waukesha. The only way to get it more D is to to either split Dane or push WI 4th outside of Milwaukee county. If anything I can see a more favorable Wisconsin 3rd if the 2nd took in Rock County although its probably still not enough even if Pfaff outperformed Biden by a hair.

[lfromnj]

My spreadsheet. Overall the house is close enough even slight map shifts can change it up.

[lfromnj]

What does the state delegations map look like?

19D-26R-5T

I gave Dems one more district in Texas based on politicallefty's comments, and I assigned the two uncertain Dem seats to SC and NE rather than CO and VA for the sake of geographic diversity. Still, despite gaining 6 seats, Democrats actually fare much worse in terms of state delegations due to RI, NV and OR ending up tied.

Did you not read an explanation on Rhode Island? Try drawing a Providence based seat, the outer seat won't be much more R because it now has to take in high turnout Democratic coastal areas and it loses Cranston which is the area Fung improved the best .