Official 2022 Congressional Election Results Thread

[lfromnj]

Between this and the snow in the Nevada and the rain in SoCal, God is really showing off today!
https://twitter.com/newswire_us/status/1590004824333877248?s=46&t=gOb6yoh1SQ...

Miami Rs are barely doing better in election day than early vote which they already won.

[lfromnj]

I feel like the collapse of the FL State Dem party is really going to be one of those things people talk about for the next 10 years. The fact Dems are outright behind in Miami Dade already is awful.

It'll be interesting to see how much of Rs gains in Florida is contained to Miami or if Rs also do nuts out of Orlando, Tampa, and Jacksonville.

Yeah this can be brutal. They also seem likely to completely collapse in the state legislature unlike the Rs in the 2018 swing wave states .

[lfromnj]

Indiana has to be all early and/or absentee. No way we're doing that well (I wish lol).

Clark county is definitely some election day. It has Young at 73% even though its only Trump +20.

[lfromnj]

After Early vote Eric Lynn (D) leads Anna Paulina Luna (R) in FL-13  51-47%

https://enr.votepinellas.gov/FL/Pinellas/115973/web.307039/#/detail/0102

Likely won't last sadly.

Lynn ran a great race. He'll outperform Crist by a lot despite Crist also being from Pinellas.

Pinellas had a very strong D bias for early vote. It was like R+30 today for election day.

[lfromnj]

Either OZ is gonna completely crash and burn or Summer Lee seems to be in deep trouble. Fetterman has 84% of what I assume is mail in vote in Allegheny Meanwhile DeLuzio is at 80% in the less D half of Allegheny which makes sense.  However Lee is at 75% !

[lfromnj]

The crazy trends in Hispanic parts of Florida have me really excited for South Texas. I already had Flores and De La Cruz predicted to win, but now I'm thinking we could knock out Cuellar too.

It also bodes very badly for Democratic prospects in Nevada (this isn't limited to Cubans anymore, but rather all Hispanic voters)
Arizona has the counterbalance of white areas that still can trend to the GOP, but NV doesn't

As we all know, Cubans in Florida are like Mexicans in Arizona. /s

I mean DeSantis is also winning Osceola by 7 which is Puerto Rican.

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/PoliticsWolf/status/1590169019738652672

more like the dem court gerrymandering away all competitive seats.

[lfromnj]

Northampton almost all in.. Oz overperforming Trump, might flip the county too.

So OZ is underperforming Trump everywhere besides the NJ Border.

[lfromnj]

DCCC Chair Sean Patrick Maloney still trailing 45-55 to anti-choice nutcase Mike Lawler. ~70% in.

I don't see a way he loses, when the district is Biden +17 once you switch the new square vote.

[lfromnj]

Wow Hochul really did mess it up for Democrats. Its almost as bad as Florida* up there while Democrats in the rest of the nation are fine.  Molinaro is somehow favored to win despite the seat having Ithaca!.

The issue with Hochul is unlike say Jerry Brown/Cuomo/Newsom she never really had the power or gall to exercise the veto pen.

Funnily enough NY and FL are also arguably 2 very similar states, with FL just taking the most R demographic of each of NY's demographics.

[lfromnj]

Ok so the NYT projection has SPM losing but I wonder if thats because they can't account for the hasidic swing in Rockland.

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/SharonCoolidge/status/1590198234521432064
Lol

Lmao

DEMOCRATIC PICKUP.

Nice to see we have something counteracting FL and VA-02 here.

The Dem is currently leading 54-46 in Claudia Tenney's district with 75% in, which would be another pickup.

I'm pretty damn confident that, while we may lose the house, we'll keep Republicans to under 230, and be above 210 while keeping the Senate by 50-50 or even a +1 result.

? I have tenney at 66% with 90% in NYT. Yeah it really seems like NY  = FL. Tenney is an awful candidate who nearly lost a Trump +15 seat in 2020.

[lfromnj]

Either OZ is gonna completely crash and burn or Summer Lee seems to be in deep trouble. Fetterman has 84% of what I assume is mail in vote in Allegheny Meanwhile DeLuzio is at 80% in the less D half of Allegheny which makes sense.  However Lee is at 75% !

Looks like Lee won by 11 points all said and done. Was a mix of both.

[lfromnj]

Also pretty solid performance by Ryan in the end. Interestingly though he's underperformed  Biden in Mahoning as of right now with >95% in.

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/NoLieWithBTC/status/1590244015068573698

Not exactly the best proof. Used to be solid gop gerrymandering . Now it's a moderate dem gerrymander. Still other factors clearly show a disaster for the gop.

[lfromnj]

I just looked at New York, and most of the uncalled races have super narrow Republican leads and they have a known counting bias. There won't be a net change there, Rs have a big gain in NY-03 randomly but are going to lose Katko's district.

Oneida which is the r base for Karlos seat isnt fully in.

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/grace_panetta/status/1590381311814139905

Yeah the worries about a supermajority while Evers survived seem exaggerated.  The Rs needed to sweep the table on all Trump seats, win 1 narrow biden WOW /Milwaukee seat and lastly win atleast one rural biden +7 seat.

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/ElectMikeGarcia/status/1590363901094670336

Garcia declares victory. Seems premature but he seems to be in a okish position.

[lfromnj]

Anyway my most hopeful outcome rn is Laxalt winning but Dems hold the house, I will make like 100 dollars. I have like 5 dollars worth of shares in R senate D house.

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/Jamal___James/status/1590388831358156800

We know composition of ~ 200k of the 400k maricopa earlies left…

They do not look good for Rs.

That’s 10k more for R’s then Dems?…

Enough for Lake to get over the line but not Masters

AZ indies are pretty D and even a few Rs defect.

[lfromnj]

I honestly wonder how the original NY gerrymander goes, The GOP likely sweeps long island especially with Biaggi about to be massacred. Malliotakis might have made it as well for a total of 8? seats

[lfromnj]

Also pretty solid performance by Ryan in the end. Interestingly though he's underperformed  Biden in Mahoning as of right now with >95% in.

For whatever bad and totally misplaced reason, many voters there blame him for not, you know, doing something to save the Lordstown GM plant. I mean, after all he was their congressman. So he should have done something, right?

Doubt it, he did fine in Trumbull, my guess is just black voter turnout was low.

[lfromnj]

Ny06's margin might get interesting.

Idk if a R swing to Biden’s 2020 margin with 78% in is good or bad for Dems given what happened in Metro NYC and NY as a whole. Even if Tom Zmich wins 80% of remaining ballots, Grace Meng still wins by 12k votes.

The new seat is like Biden +30 due to being pushed inwards, still a bad take, it wasn't actually my prediction per se but I do wonder how Zeldin did in it.

[lfromnj]

To summarize my last post:

https://twitter.com/Nick_Goedert/status/1590402240036057088

If this ends with Ds holding the House because Schweikert loses my heart may stop

If Dems were to win 4/6 of the close California House seats & 3 close NV house seats ... how would that influence the balance of power in the house calculation/ or sentiment of likely house control?

They already won the 3 NV house seats.

[lfromnj]

Thoughts if Dems only win 48 Senate seats (Georgia still goes to runoff though of course, so at best 51-49 R) and narrowly lose the House?

I was almost a 100 dollar richer man