Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[lfromnj]

Something I haven't seen discussed much about Wagner is that all the surviving prisonor troops who signed up in September, October, and November have had their 6 month terms all end. Survival rates weren't high but those who did survive had to have been fairly elite troops.

I guess that's one positive thing for Wagner admist a lot of bad news.

No its bad news for Wagner because they are no longer serving. The MOD also stopped the Wagner recruitment process.

[lfromnj]

https://thewarhorse.org/special-forces-soldiers-reveal-first-details-of-battle-with-russian-mercenaries-in-syria/

The Wagner mercenaries had a surface-to-air system that made it impossible for American aircraft to press the attack. Only after officials in Washington talked to their Russian counterparts did the surface-to-air system get shut down, allowing American aircraft to return and attack.

Interesting quote about a 2018 battle!

[lfromnj]

I wonder if the Moscow drone was Wagner.

[lfromnj]

There is a viral video circulating around various telegrams. A Ukrainian soldier shot and killed his battalion commander, because he disagreed with his orders. In their words (his friends?): "They wanted us to be meat, so Ehor did it for us. The fellow decided for us"

Not going to post it because TOS

FWIW I have seen it as well and yeah its pretty gorey.

[lfromnj]

Kinda annoyed the Storm Shadows came without any American support. The Russians are dumb but they do learn. I expect them to properly position in a month or 2 against longer range missiles just like with HIMARS. If Ukraine got a glut of longer range missiles they could have caused mass chaos.

[lfromnj]

https://www.politico.eu/article/petr-pavel-russia-czech-republic-surveillance/

“All Russians living in Western countries should be monitored much more than in the past because they are citizens of a nation that leads an aggressive war,” Pavel said in an interview with Radio Free Europe released Thursday.

“I can be sorry for these people, but at the same time when we look back, when the Second World War started, all the Japanese population living in the United States were under a strict monitoring regime as well,” said the Czech president. “That’s simply a cost of war.”

[lfromnj]

'Cost Of War': Czech President Says Russians In West Should Be 'Monitored'

The interesting things is not so much the speech itself (it's bloody obvious even if Western Europe is sticking its head in the sand about it), but the reaction of Russian opposition. I give it a month until these "good Russians" start calling for bombing Prague.

No its not bloody obvious to bring back Japanese internment camps but for overseas Russians

[lfromnj]

Biggest L is for Russia .
2nd biggest is Fr*nce

[lfromnj]

Speaking about South Africa , I dont think Putin will attend BRICS

[lfromnj]

Thats a joke. We give 100 billion in a single year.

[lfromnj]

Thats a joke. We give 100 billion in a single year.

Long-term funding is what is going to determine whether Russia gives this another go in the future (Aside from NATO membership). Also, 100+ billion is total aid, not military aid. Most of that is budgetary and humanitarian aid. The US has given a lot, but the ammunition and equipment that the given military aid represents is being rapidly depleted on an ongoing basis.

As stated here, the US has given ~41 billion in military funding/equipment so far

https://www.state.gov/u-s-security-cooperation-with-ukraine/

In the end I would argue that only America should give military aid but we should drop all other types of aid beyond a token humanitarian aid. Europe should drop most military aid though . Most American worries with the war relate to corruption while europeans have peaceniks

[lfromnj]

With the collective West stuck dealing with a very likely indefinite war in Ukraine but with the more powerful long-term threat being PRC the solution being proposed seems to be a two-front conflct.

Armor and short range missiles like HIMARs are easy enough to give out for this purpose. However longer range missiles and fighter jets are going to much more important in the Far East.

[lfromnj]

Thats a joke. We give 100 billion in a single year.

Long-term funding is what is going to determine whether Russia gives this another go in the future (Aside from NATO membership). Also, 100+ billion is total aid, not military aid. Most of that is budgetary and humanitarian aid. The US has given a lot, but the ammunition and equipment that the given military aid represents is being rapidly depleted on an ongoing basis.

As stated here, the US has given ~41 billion in military funding/equipment so far

https://www.state.gov/u-s-security-cooperation-with-ukraine/

In the end I would argue that only America should give military aid but we should drop all other types of aid beyond a token humanitarian aid. Europe should drop most military aid though . Most American worries with the war relate to corruption while europeans have peaceniks

Oh pound salt. "I believe we should deprive humanitarian Aid of a country that is undergoing a huge humanitarian crisis because it offends muh fiscal conservatism."

Contemptuous.

Its not for spending purposes as I merely just propose a swap. This proposal has serious benefits as well for Ukraine, humanitarian organizations closer to Ukraine will be better fir to serve its needs. America being the only source for military aid also means standardization of military equipment. If you look at opposition to Ukraine funding from America most of the serious opposition comes from the fact that Ukraine is corrupt which is true. Its more likely Ukrainian officials are skimming more off the top from Financial aid than military aid as I highly doubt they are selling weapons in any significant quantity. Meanwhile Europeans who oppose aid are more worried about being too aggressive with Russia. Therefore this means those countries should stop military aid.

[lfromnj]

https://news.yahoo.com/russia-already-spent-over-us-202239481.html

Forbes Ukraine calculated Russia's spending on the war over 1.5 years is $167.3 billion

- $51.3 billion to support the army
- $35.1 billion for military salaries
- $25.6 billion for payments to the families of fallen military personnel
- $21 billion for payments to the wounded
- $34.5 billion worth of Russian equipment destroyed in war

Some of this might be double counting.   Some of the $51.3 spent to support the army might be to produce new equipment to replace the ones which were destroyed which is already part of the $34.5 billion on destroyed equipment.  Also, a bunch of the $35.1 in salaries would have to be paid even without a war.

Anyway, this gives a Ukraine perspective on their calculation of the Russian fiscal cost of the war so far.

Salaries for the war actually are very high and definitely an expense. Pretty sure they are making as much as their American cou terparts even without a PPP conversion. It is around 2500 to 3000 dollars a month depending on the rubles value. Previous contract soldiers were making around 500 before the war and conscripted  soldiers made around 25 a month which is almost nothing albeit it does add up to something after a while.

[lfromnj]

https://www.ctvnews.ca/canada/jewish-group-demands-apology-after-mps-honoured-man-who-fought-for-nazis-1.6575593
Might as well post here, seems the entire Canadian parliament stood up and clapped for a possible Nazi collaborator from Ukraine who now lives in Canada.

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/60Minutes/status/1706088303970152541?s=20

Yuck, This should be Europe's job .

[lfromnj]

Not to mention Bohdan Khmelnytsky being widely considered another Ukrainian national hero. The man was responsible for one of the most brutal pogroms against Jews (and Poles too) in history.

None of this justifies Russia's blather about "denazification". At the same time I'm not going to do what certain denizens with double digit IQs have been doing, and whatabout or make excuses for Canada's parliament honoring a literal Waffen SS Nazi. I have too much self respect to cross certain lines.

While the glorification of Hunka may be a dubious or exaggerated step, even more groundless is an accusation of him as a Nazi, given that soldiers like him were motivated to prevent further Soviet atrocities in Ukraine, which still remain overlooked by historians today.

https://euromaidanpress.com/2023/09/25/did-canada-parliament-really-invite-nazi-yaroslav-hunka/

By the way here's an article by a beloved source for the war here trying to downplay the incident.

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/60Minutes/status/1706088303970152541?s=20

Yuck, This should be Europe's job .

You're assuming they are not contributing in this respect as well.

It should only be their job, Ukraine is one of the most corrupt nations in the world, we should not be giving international aid outside of military and token humanitarian which is much less likely to be stolen. Europe is close to Ukraine and can keep a closer check on such financial aid.

[lfromnj]

The reason for the median being so high is also due to the ww2 echo taking place for the youngest men right now.

[lfromnj]

I hope jaichind and co get paid their weight in rubles because cluttering the thread with all these laughable propaganda pieces must be quite exhausting.

The post above you is quoting the general of the Ukrainian army claiming 10k Russians were killed in one location in 3 weeks. Totally not propaganda though unlike regular Western media posts which Jaichind posts

[lfromnj]

Hopefully this is true:

"Ukraine may receive the first batch of 800,000 shells "within weeks" as part of a Czech-led initiative to finance the purchase of 155mm artillery shells from third countries, Bloomberg reported on 2 March."

https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1763915915287040411?s=20

I wonder what the 3rd countries are?
Argentina seems pretty likely but I doubt they have much even if they don't really need any.

[lfromnj]

I wonder what the 3rd countries are?
Argentina seems pretty likely but I doubt they have much even if they don't really need any.

South Korea, India, Pakistan, and Egypt all strike me as possible candidates.

Pakistan is already known, Egypt is pretty likely as well due to the financial situation. I doubt India is involved and South Korea has somewhat already done something indirectly.

[lfromnj]

https://kyivindependent.com/cnn-johnson-opens-door-for-alternative-ukraine-aid-package-in-house/

Seems like some house Rs agree with me. Killing Russians is good but giving money to corrupt Ukrainian bureaucracy  is a job for Europe.

[lfromnj]

A. Ukraine terrorist attack?
B. Islamic or other outside group terrorist attack?
C. Russian false flag for mobilization?

[lfromnj]

This page has 17 posts on it and 11 of them are jaichind.

He never responds to anything anyone else is saying in the thread, and nobody ever responds to him.  There's no contribution to the discourse.  It's just taking up space -- a lot of space.

I'm assuming 90% of the forum has him on ignore at this point.  Because it's just spam.  Every single day a flood of posts "Ukraine is doomed!  Soldiers are fleeing!  Europeans in shambles!  Russia's economy is booming!  War production is off the charts!"  and it's been like this for over a year now.

It makes it difficult to have a real discussion in this thread.

Why do the mods continue to allow this?

And in general, why do the mods allow megathreads like this one to be taken over by one guy just dumping his RSS feed every single day?  This is far from the first time this has happened.

Funny enough because he barley responds to anyone he never really explains how despite as you said his year long “Ukraine is doomed” spam dump that the front lines barley move? It’s kinda hard to reconcile his “Ukraine military is falling apart and Russia’s mic is booming” with the daily frontline reports of “Russia monke runs at small village in the Donbas and losses 25 tanks and armored vehicles for no gains”

This is incredibly misleading, I would ask you to find a single post where he says the Ukrainian army is collapsing or on the verge of collapse?

He has been pretty clear in multiple posts that he views this war, materially not morally, as similar to Union vs CSA.  In terms of relative demographic and industrial capacity that’s pretty close to spot on with the exception, of course, that Ukraine is not successfully blockaded and is receiving major material support from the West.  Still a nearly 1-4 demographic and 1-8 economic deficit will be very hard to overcome for Ukraine in the long term.  

These types of wars of attrition over the past few hundred years generally follow the pattern of the weaker yet pluckier side winning some major but not decisive victories prior to the stronger side mobilizing its full resources and eventually forcing the military collapse of the weaker side.  You could argue wars from Napoleonic to US Civil to WW 1/2 fitting that pattern.

Remains to be seen if that’s what happens here, political factors could get in the way,but certainly not an unreasonable expectation if Russia is fully committed to victory.

It's also just his general posting style. See the India elections thread as well . He probably just checks the news once an hour and posts an update. Maybe the mods could force him to limit his posts to maybe one or two per day per thread but I think thats just dumb.