I do think that it would have. I'm convinced that Democrats, myself included, failed to realize how exhausted voters nationwide were with the endless rioting and in particular the endless leftwing justifications for the rioting.
9 recommendations + DaleCooper. So who's the 11h vote?
Good job though you got your nice jab in.
I did have a general idea of this data a few months back although I am happy that Shor gave concrete proof in the form of statistical data.
It would have taken a 0.4 D swing. I don't think it seriously effected the state of Wisconsin but probably had a moderate effect in Kenosha itself. It seems as if college whites blamed the GOP overall while minorities/non college whites blamed Democrats.
Another factor is that it was closer to the election and way after Floyd. Right after the Floyd event BLM favorability shot up but by the end it collapsed back down. It was pretty clear though that Kenosha had a pretty weird swing for a mid-sized county in Wisconsin as basically every other medium sized county in Wisconsin swung Dem. There isn't anything extremely different about Kenosha compared to these counties besides the Jacob Blake stuff.
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