IL-17 - Public Opinion Strategies (R): Bustos +6

[lfromnj]

Likely D this year (close to Safe), could be competitive in 2022. How easy is it to gerrymander Bustos into a Likely/Safe D district?

Yeah just dump in Mcclean and strip out those rurals, Changes the trend from hard R in 2016 to very slight R.  Can't really get a true Safe D district downstate though.

[lfromnj]

Likely D this year (close to Safe), could be competitive in 2022. How easy is it to gerrymander Bustos into a Likely/Safe D district?

You can get about Clinton+10 and not trending much if you snake from Rock Island to Champaign, though that would make it hard to draw another downstate D district. If you stick with the current Rockford/RI/Peoria configuration, it's pretty hard to make it much more D.

Well there are a bunch of rural counties that swung like 30 points right. Take 150k of those out and replace it with Mcclean county which swung 10 points left in 2016

[lfromnj]

Anyway he means NW IL, the best recruit for this seat for the GOP would be Neil Anderson right?

He currently represents the Rock Island state senate seat which voted for Clinton by 3 points I think and he survived 2018 by 2 points.