GA HD-132 - Spry Strategies/Georgia House Republican Caucus (R): Trump +6%, Trammell losing

[lfromnj]

Trump won here by 3 points in 2016.

Junk this even further then

Lol what?

Its a rural seat not some zooming left Atlanta seat.Trump +6 is a bit high but not stupidly high.

[lfromnj]

The same poster who appears to be triggered by this poll showing Trump up 6 in a Kemp +2 district, defended the Quinnipiac poll that had Biden up 21 in Maine.

Don't even forget to mention its not Alpharetta, its rural deep south Georgia.

[lfromnj]

I can buy this. Trammel struggled in his own primary this year, so it seems there are some issues he is having locally.

TBF I think its going to be Trump +2 here and Tramell +1,

Also Tramell is a white dude in a district where like 90% of Democrats are black in the most polarized region of the nation. Any serious contest will be a struggle even with incumbency. I assume he is fairly moderate too which also creates the primary challenge. Even if rural black southern voters may not be progressive I could see some of them like 20% of them wanting a progressive.

[lfromnj]

Yeah, not surprising...The seat was +3 Trump lol. He's likely consolidating the last of the white vote there (rural white Georgia has more White Dems then rural MS or Louisiana).

tho it is an R-internal...Prollay 52-46% Trump.

Rural White SW georgia is just as polarized as MS, or just southern Georgia. Central Georgia has Atlanta which has a decent number of liberal whites and northern Georgia has almost no minorities which depolarizes it enough for Democrats to get into the upper teens or low 20's with whites.

[lfromnj]

Turns out Trammell lost, wbrocks unskewing did not work.