2020 redistricting Arkansas

[lfromnj]

https://www.ktlo.com/2020/07/06/petitions-submitted-for-arkansas-redistricting-initiative/

Turns out the petitions got submitted, its probably not enough as some signatures aren't counted but I think judges will be less restrictive.

Anyway theres 4 possible maps and the main focus of partisan contention is what to do with Little Rock. A GOP gerrymander would either split it or rather pair it with more rural counties. Anyway if the commision passes there are 3 maps I could see happening.

The first is a least change map. The main change is putting Pine Bluff with the delta, This makes the Delta seat move quite a bit left to Trump +16 and it might have even lasted for a while this decade. However it is Safe R now.


The Little Rock MSA is kept together perfectly with an extra 10k added. The red district is a bit of leftovers but the other 3 are very nice. The seat stays the same at Trump +10 so Likely R

Here is another map that advocates for keeping part of the Little rock metro together but also putting Pine Bluff. This is now Trump +4 and moderately trending left. Lean R. All the remaining districts are Safe R.


Finally the last choice is a "VRA" district which is either forced to split the Little rock metro 3 times or other ugly decisions have to be made.



This creates a district similar to VA 4th or so by splitting a metro and mixing it with rural AA's to create a relatively Likely/Safe D Clinton +10 district that elect a Black candidate of choice.



No idea what the commission will manage to finagle if it goes on ballot and passes but it should be one of these 3 maps or relatively similar.

[lfromnj]

Anyway the commission did not get on ballot, so if the GOP is feeling good government they could just keep the MSA map I kept above, otherwise they will either split Pulaski or keep it whole but drag it to North Central AR unless Democrats pass a really aggressive VRA in 2021.

[lfromnj]

What happens if French Hill loses?

I mean the GOP has 3/4's super majorities right? Don't see any reason they would throw the Dems a bone and put the Delta or even just Pinebluff in the district. The most logical COI based district would just follow the Census MSA and the GOP could just draw that. They could also just gerrymander it further because a 4-0 map is easy.

[lfromnj]

Heres a Indiana style map that the GOP could pass. Still Keeps Little Rock and fully unites the Delta and Pine Bluff . Still keeps most incumbents with the majority of their base so everyone should be happy.

[lfromnj]

Heres a Indiana style map that the GOP could pass. Still Keeps Little Rock and fully unites the Delta and Pine Bluff . Still keeps most incumbents with the majority of their base so everyone should be happy.

numbers on the Little Rock district?

+17 Trump, sorry forgot to mention.

[lfromnj]

https://arktimes.com/arkansas-blog/2021/10/05/congressional-redistricting-agreement-seems-near-including-split-of-sebastian-and-three-way-split-of-pulaskisplit-of-pulaski-to-make-2nd


They want to unnecessarily triple split Pulaski for some reason.(Yes I know the partisan reason, but considering only 40k is removed you could just single split it.)

[lfromnj]

https://arktimes.com/arkansas-blog/2021/10/05/congressional-redistricting-agreement-seems-near-including-split-of-sebastian-and-three-way-split-of-pulaskisplit-of-pulaski-to-make-2nd


They want to unnecessarily triple split Pulaski for some reason.(Yes I know the partisan reason, but considering only 40k is removed you could just single split it.)

So stupid.

Not only is it stupid, its just inviting a lawsuit.

What kind of map could happen if the maps get struck down? What is the mentality of the AR Supreme Court?

Federal courts would return it to the legislature in all likelyhood.

[lfromnj]

Idea for AR Democrats: get a ballot measure on the ballot requiring all congressional districts to be whole counties.

Why not just go for a commision at that point ? If the AR GOP cared enough about partisanship Little Rock could still be paired with 80% rurals in the north instead of 70% r suburbs.

[lfromnj]

https://mobile.twitter.com/baseballot/status/1456377432060186631

Why does Arkansas  have such a progressive constitution for a southern state ?

[lfromnj]

https://www.arkansasonline.com/news/2021/dec/30/arkansas-aclu-files-federal-lawsuit-over-new/

Crazy ACLU lawsuit demanding 15 black majority districts. Maybe you can get 4 in the Delta and draw out some white Dems in Little Rock. but lol at the idea of getting a SW black majority district. Drawing the 4th in the Delta would also be pretty risky. Democrats should just try asking for the 3 that they have to be shored up.

edit: They want 5 black state house districts in the Delta.

[lfromnj]

https://www.arkansasonline.com/news/2021/dec/30/arkansas-aclu-files-federal-lawsuit-over-new/

Crazy ACLU lawsuit demanding 15 black majority districts. Maybe you can get 4 in the Delta and draw out some white Dems in Little Rock. but lol at the idea of getting a SW black majority district. Drawing the 4th in the Delta would also be pretty risky. Democrats should just try asking for the 3 that they have to be shored up.

edit: They want 5 black state house districts in the Delta.

The article says they had submitted maps that reflected their desires; I'd be interested to see their proposal, at least.

https://www.acluarkansas.org/sites/default/files/field_documents/complaint_0.pdf

Page 16. Really hard to look at though.

Overall I think the current map has 4 and they chopped one Black Delta seat after an R won it. It is like Biden +1 ?

The entire region bled population anyway

[lfromnj]

https://storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.uscourts.ared.131201/gov.uscourts.ared.131201.100.0.pdf
Motion for preliminary injunction for 16 black state house districts denied.

[lfromnj]

https://arktimes.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/1-main.pdf

VRA Lawsuit over congressional map.