2022: Rate OH-01

[lfromnj]

Btw the only way to gerrymander ohio 1st is having Wenstrup as the incumbent in Cincinatti as  Chabots exurbs are not red enough.

[lfromnj]

I thought the new redistricting rules were state legislative only?

If Congressional is done fairly then there'll probably be a D seat around Cincinnati then.

State legislative has much stricter regulations
Congressional is a bipartisan commission that can be overridden by a majority.

[lfromnj]

The House redistricting law requires the first three rounds to fail to draw a map without bipartisan support. Would any GOP legislators take a compromise by giving up just one seat while still having a fairly favorable map (10R-5D)?

First of all it wouldn't be 5 D, Kapturs in a tossup at best. The only reason to compromise is if the D's flip the Ohio supreme court. The best district Kaptur without going to Lorain, can get is Clinton +3 and thats with double bunking her with Bob Latta in Bowling

[lfromnj]

The House redistricting law requires the first three rounds to fail to draw a map without bipartisan support. Would any GOP legislators take a compromise by giving up just one seat while still having a fairly favorable map (10R-5D)?

First of all it wouldn't be 5 D, Kapturs in a tossup at best. The only reason to compromise is if the D's flip the Ohio supreme court. The best district Kaptur without going to Lorain, can get is Clinton +3 and thats with double bunking her with Bob Latta in Bowling

Do you really think it will be 12R-3D or 13R-2D?

Yes they probably can keep Ryan in an Akron based seat to just prevent a dummymander in that region but in the Toledo region theres no dummymander risk.

[lfromnj]

The House redistricting law requires the first three rounds to fail to draw a map without bipartisan support. Would any GOP legislators take a compromise by giving up just one seat while still having a fairly favorable map (10R-5D)?

First of all it wouldn't be 5 D, Kapturs in a tossup at best. The only reason to compromise is if the D's flip the Ohio supreme court. The best district Kaptur without going to Lorain, can get is Clinton +3 and thats with double bunking her with Bob Latta in Bowling

Do you really think it will be 12R-3D or 13R-2D?

Yes they probably can keep Ryan in an Akron based seat to just prevent a dummymander in that region but in the Toledo region theres no dummymander risk.

You think it could even be 13R-2D (all-Republican Cincy, Toledo, and Youngstown; with one Republican representing Akron)?

It can definitely be done, the Ohio GOP might even go for it in a Biden Midterm.

[lfromnj]

The House redistricting law requires the first three rounds to fail to draw a map without bipartisan support. Would any GOP legislators take a compromise by giving up just one seat while still having a fairly favorable map (10R-5D)?

First of all it wouldn't be 5 D, Kapturs in a tossup at best. The only reason to compromise is if the D's flip the Ohio supreme court. The best district Kaptur without going to Lorain, can get is Clinton +3 and thats with double bunking her with Bob Latta in Bowling

Do you really think it will be 12R-3D or 13R-2D?

Yes they probably can keep Ryan in an Akron based seat to just prevent a dummymander in that region but in the Toledo region theres no dummymander risk.

You think it could even be 13R-2D (all-Republican Cincy, Toledo, and Youngstown; with one Republican representing Akron)?

It can definitely be done, the Ohio GOP might even go for it in a Biden Midterm.

What about a 14R-1D map (all GOP Columbus; with Fudge as the only Democrat left)?

That probably wouldn't be legal and would dummymander greatly in the Next D wave year.

[lfromnj]

The House redistricting law requires the first three rounds to fail to draw a map without bipartisan support. Would any GOP legislators take a compromise by giving up just one seat while still having a fairly favorable map (10R-5D)?

First of all it wouldn't be 5 D, Kapturs in a tossup at best. The only reason to compromise is if the D's flip the Ohio supreme court. The best district Kaptur without going to Lorain, can get is Clinton +3 and thats with double bunking her with Bob Latta in Bowling

Do you really think it will be 12R-3D or 13R-2D?

Yes they probably can keep Ryan in an Akron based seat to just prevent a dummymander in that region but in the Toledo region theres no dummymander risk.

You think it could even be 13R-2D (all-Republican Cincy, Toledo, and Youngstown; with one Republican representing Akron)?

It can definitely be done, the Ohio GOP might even go for it in a Biden Midterm.

What about a 14R-1D map (all GOP Columbus; with Fudge as the only Democrat left)?

That probably wouldn't be legal and would dummymander greatly in the Next D wave year.

The new law doesn’t allow as many splits. Chabot’s district might be illegal now.

It would be illegal due to the split of Cincinatti but again its Actually Wenstrup who will get stuck with the Cinci district while Chabot will get the northern and eastern Burbs. Check Limo libs map. Its still possible to override Cincinatti just not with Chabots burbs but you need to use Titanium R counties to the east and the Titanium R exurbs to the West.

[lfromnj]

The House redistricting law requires the first three rounds to fail to draw a map without bipartisan support. Would any GOP legislators take a compromise by giving up just one seat while still having a fairly favorable map (10R-5D)?

First of all it wouldn't be 5 D, Kapturs in a tossup at best. The only reason to compromise is if the D's flip the Ohio supreme court. The best district Kaptur without going to Lorain, can get is Clinton +3 and thats with double bunking her with Bob Latta in Bowling

Do you really think it will be 12R-3D or 13R-2D?

Yes they probably can keep Ryan in an Akron based seat to just prevent a dummymander in that region but in the Toledo region theres no dummymander risk.

You think it could even be 13R-2D (all-Republican Cincy, Toledo, and Youngstown; with one Republican representing Akron)?

It can definitely be done, the Ohio GOP might even go for it in a Biden Midterm.

What about a 14R-1D map (all GOP Columbus; with Fudge as the only Democrat left)?

That probably wouldn't be legal and would dummymander greatly in the Next D wave year.

The new law doesn’t allow as many splits. Chabot’s district might be illegal now.

It would be illegal due to the split of Cincinatti but again its Actually Wenstrup who will get stuck with the Cinci district while Chabot will get the northern and eastern Burbs. Check Limo libs map. Its still possible to override Cincinatti just not with Chabots burbs but you need to use Titanium R counties to the east and the Titanium R exurbs to the West.

Does that mean Wenstrup loses?

Me and Limo got it upto Trump +8 so no.

[lfromnj]

Aren’t the suburbs trending Democratic, while rural ancestrally Democratic regions are trending Republican?

If you just take Cincinatti +Titanium R exurbs in the West which aren't trending D and then immediatly move East you should get an R trending trump +8 district.

[lfromnj]

Aren’t the suburbs trending Democratic, while rural ancestrally Democratic regions are trending Republican?

If you just take Cincinatti +Titanium R exurbs in the West which aren't trending D and then immediatly move East you should get an R trending trump +8 district.

Is that legal (under the new rules)?

Doesn't split Cincinatti as far as I can tell and keeps the smaller counties whole, and if the GOP holds the Ohio supreme court it isn't Partisan advantage to hacks on the court.