Colorado 2020 U.S. House Redistricting Discussion

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/laurenboebert/status/1435033207628521476?s=20

Munching on popcorn.

[lfromnj]

So changes from previous draft map are that CO03 goes from Trump +4 to Trump +9 and loses a lot of ski counties making there still a moderate D trend but not as strong from 2016 >2020.
Co04 stays as a Safe R district.
Co08 goes from Biden +5 to Biden +7. Previous map was better for the GOP in 2022 with a relatively even chance I would say of a 4-4 result. This one I would say is a decent bit lower for 4-4 though.

[lfromnj]

The four items in the congressional map that seem to be sacrosanct are keeping Denver whole, keeping Aurora whole (for the most part), a district entirely in El Paso, and a Hispanic opportunity district in Adams and Weld counties.

Another factor is keeping Pueblo and the San Luis Valley together despite it being slightly inconvenient in a lot of maps.

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/EvanWyloge/status/1438277674779103238
CO-03 is Trump +9 here.

Who drew this one?

This looks closer to a 5-3, anyone have the election data for them all?

https://twitter.com/DrewSav/status/1438285259653718016

[lfromnj]

Not getting all hate Democrats are giving this map on Twitter. It's a 4D-3R-1 lean D map and that seems about right to me. As long as Denver is kept as whole as possible (as it should under a commission map IMO) the median district is going to be to the right of the state as a whole. If Democrats can't win a Biden +4.6 district in a state that is likely to keep moving left then they have big problems.

The partisan numbers are actually quite similar to what I drew earlier on this thread. Its a bad map because Douglas is going with the Plains when Weld should be the plains seat really. The drawers gave too much attention to "Latino" Democratic hack consultants that were trying to draw 5 3 or 6-2 maps really but in the end didn't really draw a gerrymander. A lot of those maps depended on splitting El Paso and Denver which this commission at least so far has refused to do.

Along with that, there's no reason to split Boulder or Larimer county and one create a Western slope district instead of trying to gerrymander to force Pueblo into Boebert's district.

[lfromnj]

Not getting all hate Democrats are giving this map on Twitter. It's a 4D-3R-1 lean D map and that seems about right to me. As long as Denver is kept as whole as possible (as it should under a commission map IMO) the median district is going to be to the right of the state as a whole. If Democrats can't win a Biden +4.6 district in a state that is likely to keep moving left then they have big problems.

Dems are mad because without the commission we'd get a 7-1 map and even this proportionally partisan map makes a lot of weird choices that deviate from COI.

Not an expert on CO communities of interest but it is tough to please everybody when redistricting. As for being mad about not getting a 7-1 map (6-2 more realistically) you can blame that on the voters who approved approved the commission. This map is fine for the system they have.

The issue is they wanted to please Democratic Latino hack groups but didn't even please them because they didn't get the gerrymander they wanted. They actually did listen to public comments on a broad level but the ones they prioritized the most were generally the Democratic groups masquerading as Latino interests.

[lfromnj]

Finished my fair Colorado map. Kept the San Luis valley + Pueblo together. Aurora district is the most diverse in the state if you guys care about that. The blue one is the swingiest at Biden +4.1 and Gardner +2.5. Western district is Trump +6.8. A bit of that is because I took Manitou springs from the Colorado springs district and kept Eastern El Paso in that one. I at first just did this to keep the Hispanic areas together but IMO Eastern El Paso actually belongs with Colorado springs because there seem to be a lot of airfields in that area and everyone should understand how important the air force is to that region. It does make the El Paso district a bit more red than most typically done but its marginal.

[lfromnj]

Splitting El Paso from the west rather than the east looks ugly af but tbh I kind of get it--Manitou Springs is a ski and tourist town like a lot of CO-03. Still not sure if that's better than an eastern split btu I see the rationale.

I'm still kind of sympathetic to a Teller+El Paso district with a slightly deeper cut of El Paso.

Main reason was just other population stuff really. Didn't want to split the valley really.

[lfromnj]

These maps just look ugly, honestly. It's hard to believe that they represent meaningful COIs when the lines look so unnatural, although I'd obviously defer to people who know the state better than I do.

It's also pretty bizarre that the 4th most Democratic district under this plan would be LESS Democratic than the 4th most Dem under the current map, even when we go from 4/7 to 4/8. A state like CO feels like it should have at least 5 seats that lean clearly to the left, but all these plans have delivered just 3 or 4 of those.

Its mostly because this plan the new seat is mostly created by "cracking" the current 7th district(biden 60-39) with 2 R regions(Weld county) and some random rurals West of the Front range. Honestly most of the other districts are are relatively similar to the current map.

[lfromnj]

https://mobile.twitter.com/EvanWyloge/status/1442926297408102400

Colorado to vote on final plan at 6 pm MT.

[lfromnj]

The Coleman Amendment map has CO-8 as Biden+4.6,  probably tossup in 2022, but it would be trending D overall.

The other districts are all safe for their respective parties until Colorado Springs turns competitive.

Crappy map overall IMO.

Schell and Leone both come off as total R hacks,  Schell even said that she's only comfortable with a 4-3-1 map and not a 5-3 map (literally saying the D advantage in the other map was too large).  

Wow, now the vote is 6 Tafoya and 5 Coleman and 1 Moore.

\


The district was Obama +7 in 2012. Its a very weird district overall and I think it has voted for the presidential winner ever since 1980. There is a chance it could trend D with the rest of Colorado but also a decent chance it stays as a mild Dem leaning swing district.

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/nickriccardi/status/1443066846945677316

Interesting, I actually called this a few months ago on discord noting that Schell was the only indy without the words diversity/equity in their bio.

Schell also voted to keep prisoners counted in their prisons instead of their cities.

[lfromnj]

Round 5 Tally:

Staff Plan 3 Coleman Amendment - 4 votes

Tafoya Workshop Adjusted Amendment - 4 votes

P.008.Shepherd Macklin ("Schuster Amended") - 4 votes

This is the partisanship of P.008 (It's 5-3 DEM here but was 5-3 GOP in 2016):

wtf?

it'll be hilarious if this bizarre gerrymander is what the commission ends up passing. Who voted for it?

it's hilarious also that this is a Republican proposed map, while all of the Republicans on the commission have been trying to push through a plan made by a Democratic commissioner.

Technically the Democratic commissioner map is the third staff plan with just some COI adjustments and no partisan changes as far as I saw.

[lfromnj]

Schuster is an amazing map for Democrats and its very close to what Tafoya wanted  in his headwaters plan although not nearly as favorable. However as Tafoya is literally the Democratic establishment he probably doesn't like the fact  it double bunks Neguse and Perlmutter



Here's the gerrymander Tafoya wanted

The 3rd district is about the same at Trump +1 while the 2nd and 8th are much more D.

[lfromnj]

Honestly listening in, all else equal Tafoya was an arrogant ahole. He was definitely an awful choice for a partisan dem trying to persuade othsrs. Literally when everyone else is voting on 2 maps he just starts screaming about his own map and votes for it all alone . It  seems like in the end he wanted a map with his name on it.

[lfromnj]

Good and bad signs for Ds in CA
Bad is that even left leaning indies won't neccesarily support a Democratic gerrymander.

Good sign is there are a few partisan Democrats there while no counter partisan Republican like Kelly or Leone . No counter act voice is probably what will give Dems the W in CA

[lfromnj]

So one of the Dem commissioners got way out ahead of their skis and basically alienated everyone else?

To be specific this was the most partisan Democrat as well.

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/Uncrewed/status/1443086828639248392?s=20

To show how absurd Tafoya is. Remember after 5 hours of voting he just gets mad at everyone and  votes for his own map all alone.

[lfromnj]

Seems like the best D candidate is Dave young/Mary Young. Dave is the state treasurer and Mary Young is his wife who represents his state house Biden +4 Eastern Greeley seat. She was uncontested in 2020 but Dave Young won by 16 in 2016.

[lfromnj]

https://www.politico.com/news/2021/06/23/redistricting-colorado-map-perlmutter-495830

Democrats complained back in June of the preliminary map which gave them a Biden +9 seat as being a 4-4 split lol. They somehow panicked and didn't realize the idiotic commission decided to display the 2018 AG numbers for all 8 districts despite the fact those were the worst performing numbers in Suburban Denver.

Overall summary and end result if it stands by CO supreme court:

The final map has a slight R leaning bias for the middle 2 districts according to median gap and the like but arguably has a Democratic leaning tilt when it comes to MCMC which shows geographical bias better. In the end partisan wise its pretty much what one should expect.

On the other hand excessive Democratic Latino lobbying completely ruined the map by making the commission do a Weld to Adams district instead of just drawing a Latino opportunity district using Aurora and Adams. After that Douglas could be with the Denver metro instead of the plains while Weld could be with the plains which is way more logical. Also Latino lobbying by Democratic reps who were sad they could no longer have the chance to raise millions against Boebert forced CO03 to take in Pueblo instead of Ski liberals. Marginal partisan difference but just frustrating to see.

[lfromnj]

Found LULAC's map by the way.

The El Paso/Pueblo district seems to be Biden +10, while the Larimer to Fort collins is Trump +1ish?

[lfromnj]

https://www.denverpost.com/2021/10/04/kerry-donovan-lauren-boebert-redistricting-2022-election/.

Waiting for the state supreme court.

[lfromnj]

So the commission just approved its state legislative maps and it went very differently.  The new maps are likely Dem supermajorities in both chambers.  Weird.

Definitely seems like the CO legislative commission went higher on "competitive districts"

[lfromnj]

CO seems to be trending left so fast that I wouldn't be surprised if some of this discussion is outdated in 5 years.  It might not help Dems in 2022 though.

CO was probably Biden's biggest over performance of 2020.

The swing district is the most stable though atleast relative to 2012 . Obama won it by 8 points  Trump won it by 2..  Biden only won it by 4.5. It could  definitely trend  left with Colorado but  it is a wait and watch. Obviously this all depends on the CO court not striking down the map.

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/subspaceteatime/status/1448850280930418693

https://twitter.com/subspaceteatime/status/1448850280930418693