2020 Redistricting in Pennsylvania

[lfromnj]

I really hope there’s some kind of minor change in coalitions that allows some of the artificial D seats in PA, OH, NC, MI, etc to go red. I’m not sure how that would happen but it would be hilarious. The self-righteous D’s on this forum would very much deserve it for how much they are celebrating hideously gerrymandered seats in the name of partisan fairness. I’m not sure why the courts ever got this idea but the maps are intended to preserve communities of interest so that their geographical area can fairly select a representative. They are not supposed to legislate the national scoreboard and pre-determine who wins each seat.

My view on it is that proportionality should be used to an extend that is acceptable.   Make the map equal to the point that voters can translate votes to seats at a level that is proportionate to their statewide vote share, but if that requires distorting the seats to an extent that voters can't really know what district they're in (weird tentacles or awkward splits, etc) than that's a step too far.

Proportionality is one of the best ways we have to give a map true legitimacy because it's based on simple math rather than what looks good.  It's probably why the concept has taken hold in courts and commissions around the country so strongly.

It's not based on simple math. Who decides what #'s to use? Should a map be changed if it deviates from proportionality due to coalitian shifts such as Wisconsin?

If proportionality is such a great standard then why is the Michigan commision's state senate map 22/38 Biden seats? I was told they were the gold standard.

Minnesotas map in 2010 had 6/8 Obama seats although 3 of them were within 2 points. It then moved to 3 Clinton seats and now its 4-4 Biden . The 2020 map is pretty close and I do agree there was one slightly R favorable decision but the median district still has a strong R bias either way.

[lfromnj]

Some of you are getting way too in the weeds. A fair map is one that reflects partisanship of the state. Doesn't matter how it got there. At the end of the day a Biden 9-8 map that includes a few very competitive districts IS a fair map. If anything, you could even argue that it favors Rs a bit since even though Biden won some of those districts, they are more R by PVI

"competitve districts" are important

Also lets tri chop Berks to give Houlahan a safe seat.

[lfromnj]

Some of you are getting way too in the weeds. A fair map is one that reflects partisanship of the state. Doesn't matter how it got there. At the end of the day a Biden 9-8 map that includes a few very competitive districts IS a fair map. If anything, you could even argue that it favors Rs a bit since even though Biden won some of those districts, they are more R by PVI

Fun Fact, Joe Torsella despite losing the state won a majority of districts. Does not represent PA voters confirmed. Infact using the 4 statewide races combined in PA for 2020 Democrats won 10/17 districts. So even by playing by your rules I can get some numbers that make it a gerrymandered map. People always say proportionality is easy but it really isn't unless you flat out institute proportional districts statewide. Proportionality is just as subjective as all other criteria in the end. Changing coalitians as well make it the most fickle of any such metric. I can draw a variation of my fair map which I edited from Palandio which is 13 Toomey districts. Yet at the same time Biden wins 8 districts and I think Shapiro wins 9 or 10 districts. Coalitians continiously change

[lfromnj]

Some of you are getting way too in the weeds. A fair map is one that reflects partisanship of the state. Doesn't matter how it got there. At the end of the day a Biden 9-8 map that includes a few very competitive districts IS a fair map. If anything, you could even argue that it favors Rs a bit since even though Biden won some of those districts, they are more R by PVI

Nope. It literally does not matter whether it reflects the partisanship of the state. A fair map is one that reflect the communities of interest of the state. We have a fundamental definitional disagreement of what a fair map is.

So if you have a state that has a huge city and smaller communities, but then only 1 district for that city and then say, 3-4 districts for those smaller communities, a map that is 3-1 or 4-1 for a state that could be equal in partisanship is fair? That makes no sense.

Is it fair that Joe Torsella wins 9/17 districts while losing statewide? Republicans won the statewide house PV in PA for 2020 yet it seems under this map Dems would have won a majority of seats.

Still waiting for the explanation why Torsella/PA house dems winning a majority despite losing the PV is "fair" and why tri chopping Berks is needed for partisan fairness.

[lfromnj]

I don't agree that self-packing is that bad for Democrats in Pennsylvania anymore. I'd agree that there is some geographic disadvantage for for Democrats in the state (particularly due to the main Democratic concentration being in the corner of the state), but it's not necessarily the result of self-packing. The rural areas have lurched far to the right over the past several years, though really starting (at least in terms of the trend) with Obama in 2008. If you compare 2004 with 2020, Kerry did about 1.3% better on the statewide margin compared to Biden. Their margins in Philadelphia were very similar. Kerry was still getting crushed in the rurals, particularly the ancestral ultra-Republican "T" (James Carville used to refer to the state as Pittsburgh and Philadelphia with Alabama in the middle). Trump's margins in the rurals were astronomical though.

Look at the current 18-district map. It includes two districts contained with Philadelphia and several rural districts across the state. Look at the safest half of the state.

PA-03: 91-8 Biden (Philly)
PA-13: 72-27 Trump (South Central PA)
PA-15: 71-28 Trump (NW Central PA)
PA-02: 70-29 Biden (Philly)
PA-12: 67-31 Trump (NE/North Central PA)
PA-05: 65-34 Biden (DelCo)
PA-09: 65-34 Trump (East Central PA)
PA-18: 65-34 Biden (Pittsburgh)
PA-14: 63-36 Trump (SWPA)

The safest district is indeed far and away Democratic. However, the second and third are both Republican districts. The core urban areas actually somewhat weakened for Democrats in 2020 while the rurals stayed steady or even improved for Republicans. The 2018 map may have taken some decisions that leaned towards Democrats, but the map was eminently logical and fair.

As for the new map, I would've kept a district entirely within Allegheny County (as shown in my map a few pages back). On the other hand, I wouldn't have put Carbon County with the Lehigh Valley. I think Monroe County fits better. I also had the tri-chop of Berks County. It's a hard county to deal with on account of its location if you believe other counties/COIs should be left intact (including the Lehigh Valley, Lancaster County, Chester County, and Bucks County by extension).

Carbon is actually part of the Lehigh Valley.

Monroe is part of the Poconos  like Wayne and Pike.

[lfromnj]

I don't agree that self-packing is that bad for Democrats in Pennsylvania anymore. I'd agree that there is some geographic disadvantage for for Democrats in the state (particularly due to the main Democratic concentration being in the corner of the state), but it's not necessarily the result of self-packing. The rural areas have lurched far to the right over the past several years, though really starting (at least in terms of the trend) with Obama in 2008. If you compare 2004 with 2020, Kerry did about 1.3% better on the statewide margin compared to Biden. Their margins in Philadelphia were very similar. Kerry was still getting crushed in the rurals, particularly the ancestral ultra-Republican "T" (James Carville used to refer to the state as Pittsburgh and Philadelphia with Alabama in the middle). Trump's margins in the rurals were astronomical though.

Look at the current 18-district map. It includes two districts contained with Philadelphia and several rural districts across the state. Look at the safest half of the state.

PA-03: 91-8 Biden (Philly)
PA-13: 72-27 Trump (South Central PA)
PA-15: 71-28 Trump (NW Central PA)
PA-02: 70-29 Biden (Philly)
PA-12: 67-31 Trump (NE/North Central PA)
PA-05: 65-34 Biden (DelCo)
PA-09: 65-34 Trump (East Central PA)
PA-18: 65-34 Biden (Pittsburgh)
PA-14: 63-36 Trump (SWPA)

The safest district is indeed far and away Democratic. However, the second and third are both Republican districts. The core urban areas actually somewhat weakened for Democrats in 2020 while the rurals stayed steady or even improved for Republicans. The 2018 map may have taken some decisions that leaned towards Democrats, but the map was eminently logical and fair.

As for the new map, I would've kept a district entirely within Allegheny County (as shown in my map a few pages back). On the other hand, I wouldn't have put Carbon County with the Lehigh Valley. I think Monroe County fits better. I also had the tri-chop of Berks County. It's a hard county to deal with on account of its location if you believe other counties/COIs should be left intact (including the Lehigh Valley, Lancaster County, Chester County, and Bucks County by extension).

Carbon is actually part of the Lehigh Valley.

Monroe is part of the Poconos  like Wayne and Pike.

Say the 2018 court map was the same except they swapped Monroe County out for Carbon County and as much of Monroe as is needed. Do Ds win both seats in 2020?

My guess is Cartwright holds on but Wild loses.

Cartwright obviously holds, he gets a Trump +1 seat or something like that.

[lfromnj]

Carbon is actually part of the Lehigh Valley.

Monroe is part of the Poconos  like Wayne and Pike.

Maybe historically. I'd still argue that the combined Lehigh-Northampton Counties are better suited with Monroe County. It's not a major disagreement and one I'd be willing to relent on if we were working on a compromise map.

It's mostly just because like the 2018 map which clearly just put Lehigh with Monroe to give Clinton 8/18 seats. Lehigh+ Monroe+ Carbon was a few hundred short of a district in 2010 numbers.


This is the ideal Harrisburg district in a vacuum similar to the Lehigh district as well but unfortunately unlike the Lehigh district something  has to sacrifice in this region.

[lfromnj]

It's mostly just because like the 2018 map which clearly just put Lehigh with Monroe to give Clinton 8/18 seats. Lehigh+ Monroe+ Carbon was a few hundred short of a district in 2010 numbers.

That's a fair enough point. I spend so much time playing with the 2020 numbers and a 17-district map that I'd forgotten that. Ideally though, these are decisions that would be made by a nonpartisan commission with set standards in place. I'm not saying there's one true fair map.

This is the ideal Harrisburg district in a vacuum similar to the Lehigh district as well but unfortunately unlike the Lehigh district something  has to sacrifice in this region.

Interestingly, on that point, the court-approved map was almost identical to the one I drew. The counties that make up PA-10, PA-11, and PA-13 fit almost perfectly into three districts. I do think the Harrisburg-York configuration is a logical one. That configuration also leaves all of Lancaster County with the remainder of York, another logical configuration. I think the odd district out is PA-09 again (just like in the 2018 map, although that one was more coherent). There aren't many good options though, with rural PA bleeding population. If population trends continue as they've been over this decade and PA loses another seat in 2030, I'd expect that seat to be obliterated in any reasonably fair map.

York and Lancaster aren't as logical as one thinks and IIRC have a sort of rivarly going on. The Ideal York district should include York + Gettysburg as well. However my point about idealness here is compared to other areas the entire area is just weird to draw so if you try drawing ideal districts somewhere, something else gets messed up. Similar examples of drawing ideal districts which can mess up the rest of the state are,

Lee County FL-760k people and basically its own metro, it should be whole right? Nope if it stays whole Collier goes into Miami Dade.

 A lot in CA,
San Joaquin definetely makes sense to keep whole as the Stockton metro area but at the same time its the gateway between the Bay Area/Central Valley so it usually gets chopped up. MA also has similar issues in SE MA regarding Plymouth/Bristol counties.

There's no good solution really and I don't get why people have to act like York-Harrisburg is the end be all to this region when its simply just a Dem friendly choice a Dem friendly court made in 2018.

Choice means a variety of mediocre options exist and the court chose a D friendly one of those.

[lfromnj]

PA GOP House Leader has filed a challenge against the recently passed house and senate maps, asking the PA Supreme Court to use the 2012 lines for the 2022 election.

lmao, on what basis??

The state house has a pretty strong D bias according to the same tests the PA supreme used to strike down the congressional maps in 2018.  State senate is more mixed, Dems getting that Monroe /Scranton split probably makes up for the GOP getting to split Lancaster. I guess its probably over city split stuff though. I highly doubt that works because I think it does have a bit fewer splits. The partisan unfairness test should work by the court's own logic but they are probably too hackish.

This claim was refuted during the hearings on the map. The GOP relied on a single person's simulation results which were not found to be reproducible, and in fact when minority representation was taken into account (which the GOP's simulation did not do), the map was not at all biased. IMO there's a much more valid claim to be made that the map splits municipalities excessively in order to avoid incumbent pairings, but of course the House GOP leadership doesn't want to touch that aspect of the map.

Explain the minority rights here or at state college.




3 Biden seats or even 4 is fair in Harrisburg but only 1 should be Safe D.  What they did here was make 3 Safe D seats.



Splitting Allentown into 3 to do the same .



Reading has a similar split and only 1 majority hispanic district exists.


Overall a lot of the boosting isn't really Biden seats, I would expect around 98 to 100 but it really does boost downballot Democrats quite a bit. Having 3  Ahmad state house seats in Harrisburg is pretty damn strong.

[lfromnj]

Ironic/grim that if Summer Lee loses, it will be due to the map putting Westmoreland areas in with PGH.

How so?

Irwin got like 70% of the vote in the Westmoreland portion of the county.