NJ-2: Van Drew considering switching parties over impeachment

[lfromnj]

Fun fact about NJ2nd.
It always flips whenever its open and it hasn't flipped in a century with an incumbent(obviously a useless statistic considering ME 2 flipped last year)

[lfromnj]

I mean NJ 2nd isn't even trending super Republican by comparing presidential trends from 08(12 numbers are bad because of Sandy.) its only like a 6 R trend.

[lfromnj]

Can we merge this thread with the other one about Van Drew?

Tbh maybe this could focus more on the electoral applications of Van Drew switching while the USGD is the political aspects.

[lfromnj]

As a matter of democratic legitimacy, if he does switch he should consider resigning and running in a special election as a Republican. Most people who voted for him wanted to be represented by a Democrat and NJ-02 voters should have the chance to decide whether they want to be represented by a Republican.

The thing is that special elections in NJ only happen in November so it doesn't really do anything besides remove any representative from this seat.

[lfromnj]

Isn't this something? The Democratic Party isn't going to even allow Van Drew to cast a token "No" vote on an impeachment effort which is ultimately doomed to failure in the Senate, and because of that, he's switching parties? A confused and disheartening situation on all sides. It is true that this district is rapidly trending Republican, Van Drew won by a much smaller margin than had initially been expected, and he succeeded a long-time Republican incumbent who held the seat for more than two decades. On the other hand, party-switchers do not have an unparalleled history of success, and often do so out of personal selfishness.

I'm not sure what to think about this, but what I do know is that this makes it likely Collin Peterson will be the only Democrat in the entire House of Representatives to vote no on the articles of impeachment. Even in 1998, something on the order of six Republicans voted against Bill Clinton's impeachment. Never have we seen an impeachment as partisan and polarized as this one.

The democratic party is fine with him voting No. They understand that such a vote is token. His problem is with the voters back home. Even though NJ-02 is slightly red, it's got a healthy Dem base with POC's in and around Atlantic City and suburbanites near Philly. Those outside the machines control have a right to be angry, even though it may not be the most rational choice. If your representative isn't going to be representing your opinions, then why is he your representative? The county line would probably have been able to save  him if he stayed blue, or at least dissuade all but the most determined challengers. The primary is months away after all, and some voters will forget.

He's afraid, and it's a choice that will likely end his career in one way or another. Flippers outside of the south historically cannot answer for their time on the opposite bench, and lose the primary. The GOP machines won't like the fact he was more or less a lockstep D vote on all but the most controversial legislation. If he stayed blue he would face those angry voters, and have to rely on the  machines to prop him up.

https://twitter.com/jmartNYT/status/1205935885168119816

Party =/= Voters. Party is machine apparatus, insiders, politicians. They know how to wheel and deal. Voters are people on the ground. people are emotional. People get pissed, even when it may not be rational.

Damn you replied to my post before I fully understood yours. I deleted mine lol. Anyway the party machine isn't supporting Van drew either because he isnt supporting impeachment although it could also be because he's acting like an ass while not supporting impeachment unlike Collin Peterson.

[lfromnj]

It would try be *chefs kiss* if Van Drew was to win the GOP primary and then lose the General to another D.

Not especially likely. District has marked Trumpist leanings, and, in fact, in 2018 Van Drew was basically considered to be the only Democrat, who could win it.

I dont get this idea, I mean its Trump +4.5. IIRC d's hold basically 3/4 of the seat that voted for Trump but are less than Trump +5.

[lfromnj]

Some people here are acting as if this district is in West Texas. It's only voted for the Republican nominee for President twice out of 7 presidential elections and could very well flip back in 2020. Phil Murphy carried the district in the gubernatorial race and the statewide numbers were only a couple of points different than the presidential ones.

Phil Murphys gubernatorial win was just weird, he just lost the clinton won 7th but he did win the 2nd which makes sense for a return to partisanship but he also won the 11th and the 5th which trended D in 2012 to 2016(a stronger than actual number wise trend because of the sandy effect)