KY, MS etc. Results Thread

[lfromnj]

Its called for Beshear by Wasserman, makes sense. I saw Beshears margin improve by 11k in 5% of the remaining 10%  in Louisville.

[lfromnj]

Guys, it's 97% in on CNN, with Jefferson at 96%, and Beshear still has a 0.7% lead. At worst this falls into recount margin. Relax.

When have I heard this before?

I don't know, when have you? Literally a greater percentage of Jefferson is still out than of the rest of the state.

Beshear is going to win, but there are Republican leaning parts of Jefferson County that they could theoretically be.  Not that Bevin has enough votes regardless.

Its a mix. A few mild D suburbs(for beshear obviously strong for Trump) a few white lib areas and 2 black precints

[lfromnj]

Whereabouts are IceSpear/TrendsAreReal/etc? Guess trends aren't real anymore, huh?

I mean, mocking the prediction that KY was safe R is of course fair game, but the trends WERE real in this race. Beshear won by about the same margin as he did in 2015 but with far more urban/suburban support and far less rural support.

https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/data.php?year=2019&fips=21&f=1&off=5&elect=0&def=tnd&datatype=county




Taking a screenshot of the trend map because other elections  can affect the trend map.

[lfromnj]

Is Hood from the Hattiesburg area?  It seems like he is REALLY over-performing there, even relative to Epsy last year.

He's from Chicasaw county which is a narrow Obama +5 Trump +6 county.
He broke 60% there NUT

[lfromnj]

NYCMM was certainly correct about Atlas (himself included) being wrong...

You may be somewhat correct regarding one of us; however, NYCMM predicted about a 3% margin when I spoke to him, so if Beshear merely got two extra points at the expense of Bevin, which isn't that far off.

Ah right! Too bad for him that the rest of us can read what he actually predicted...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Kentucky_gubernatorial_election#Polling_3

I'm going to give Beshear the 46% in the latest Mason Dixon poll, the Lolbertarian 1%, and the rest to Bevin

Kentucky

Bevin: 53%
Beshear: 46%
Libertarian: 1%

@Bagel23: you're taller than I expected and that Jon Tester outfit seems to fit you well, I recommend rocking it in college to attract the ladies

Anyway guys, as an Internet addict who keeps finding my way back, here are my last predictions. You can make fun of me if they end up being wrong.

Virginia House and Senate: will go D (I won't even bother researching the exact races in order to predict how much)

Louisiana: Rispone 51.5%, JBE 48.5%; however a JBE 50.1%, Rispone 49.9% result or something along those lines is decently possible; you could say it's between Lean R and Tilt R.

Kentucky: Bevin 51%, Beshear 47%, Libertarian 2%. However, there's a small chance for a Beshear 48.2%, Bevin 48.1%, Libertarian 3.7% style victory. You can say it's Lean R.

Mississippi: Hood can't seem to get beyond 45% in the Hickman Analytics(D) polls, ergo I rate it Likely R, possibly Safe. I predict a result similar to the 2018 MS-SEN Special race between Hyde-Smith and Espy. If you factor in that gubernatorial races can be less partisan, you can predict that Hood can mayyybe get up to 48%. I'd still predict something like 50% Reeves, 48% Hood, 2% Third Party. There exists the possibility that it'll be something more like 54% Reeves, 45% Hood, 1% Third Party. And you could even argue that it's possible that Hood will get less than 45%.

Right now the likeliest option for me is something like 53% Reeves, 46% Hood, 1%Third Party.

Edit: by the way I'll do my best not to pop in again until the Iowa Caucus results. Again, normally my 'internet addiction' wouldn't be a problem if I was content to have a regular life, but I yearn for something far more ambitious.

Edit2: Also my hot take for the Iowa Caucus this far out is that there is a decently greater chance of Warren+Buttigieg being in the Top 2 than Bernie+Biden being in the Top 2. Again, I don't have faith in those geezers.

Be fair

[lfromnj]

Thinking about it, Beshear should have put this Bevin douche away into the history books by at least a 10-point margin under normal circumstances.

A 0.2 point win is nothing to be really happy about, considering how big of a moron Bevin is.

Yet Austrian media is spinning it as a „fantastic night“ for the Dems and how „weak“ Trump is right now because of KY and the 0.2% loss there.

They have no clue.

Why is the Austrian media reporting on a governor election of a small US state.

[lfromnj]

HOLY sh**t
SF is insane
from the nyt
https://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/17/books/17book.html?mtrref=www.google.com&assetType=REGIWALL
http://

About the political activities of his parents, Mr. Boudin writes: “Certainly violence is illegitimate when it targets civilians or intends to cause generalized or widespread fear, but my parents never did either of those.” At another point, he adds that his parents “paid a heavy price for their radical politics.” They didn’t pay that heavy price for their politics. They paid it for the part they played in the deaths of three men.

Very few in America pay a price for their opinions, His parents literally killed 3 people but he sees them as the victims.  A very unfortunate child with an unfortunate upbringing by radicals. However I can't feel any sympathy for him as an adult.