2020 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread v2

[lfromnj]

The GOP are really trying for TX 7th,although they aren't really trying as much for TX 32.

[lfromnj]

https://www.ktvh.com/news/montana-news/bullocks-senate-campaign-raises-3-3m-in-three-weeks-daines-at-8m
Hot DAYUM.

[lfromnj]

Also 3 million dollars wasted on AOC, LOL!

[lfromnj]

https://jewishinsider.com/2020/04/odd-bedfellows-converge-in-san-diego-congressional-race/

The Jewish community in San Diego is supporting the Justice Democrat over the more moderate Jewish Democrat, because the Justice Democrat is more pro Israel.
Sara Jacobs screwed up here big time.

[lfromnj]

I think the PA-01 change may be a bit much. This is a presidential year, so even if the nominee is weak, it's still possible they're taken over the finish line by Biden.

Fitzpatrick is someone who has proven ability to run ahead of the ticket. In 2018, the district was Casey +15 and Wolf +19, and he still managed to win, even with a weak opponent. He has one of, if not the, most moderate voting records of any House Republican, and his very popular late brother was his immediate predecessor.

Chet Edwards and Mike Coffman say hi.

You mean a Mccain 67% district and a Clinton +9 district? 2018 was already a complete wave in PA with Democrats also nearly winning a Trump +20 district and coming close in a Trump +11 district(Pa10th although they have a star candidate here.) I wouldn't move PA 1 to likely R yet but its a clinton +2 district not some titanium D district, its not even like Bucks is trending rapidly democrat although the district did move left a bit due to the redistricting that put in the Montgomery portion which has moved decently left which gave it around a 2.3% D trend in 2016.

[lfromnj]

Btw Pete Defazio got outraised by his challenger
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/4/20/1938838/-Daily-Kos-Elections-1Q-2020-House-fundraising-reports-roundup
https://twitter.com/alekskarlatos
Should keep an eye on the seat just incase but I doubt Defazio will lose especialy with COH as his challenger is spending a lot too.

[lfromnj]

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/4/30/1941431/-Even-if-Republicans-run-the-table-that-won-t-be-enough-to-take-back-the-House-our-new-ratings-show

Daily Kos came out with House ratings. For the most part, they actually seem pretty reasonable, though I might move IA-01, CA-21 and CA-48 (especially if they include FL-26, NJ-07 and TX-07) to tossup.

Would also move TX 24 to tossup, its a carbon copy of GA 7th(+23 Romney to +6.5 Trump and solid margins in 2018 statewide races)

[lfromnj]

Apparently, Riggleman in VA-05 is expected to lose the nomination to Bob Good.

https://twitter.com/vapoliticalnews/status/1258150366060953600?s=21

This probably moves the seat from Likely R to Lean R.

It's a corey Stewart seat.

[lfromnj]

Apparently, Riggleman in VA-05 is expected to lose the nomination to Bob Good.

https://twitter.com/vapoliticalnews/status/1258150366060953600?s=21

This probably moves the seat from Likely R to Lean R.

And all because he officiated a same sex wedding. This is why I don't understand how some gay people can be Republicans.

No, because he's also batsh**t crazy and writes books about Bigfoot.

He's really not, just a normal dude who went to congress, owns a distillery and has a good libertarian streak to him.

[lfromnj]

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/05/06/gop-candidates-posts-demeaned-muslims-and-mocked-parkland-shooting-survivor-241429
To show just how bad the house GOP has been this cycle, CA 10th was the median seat in 2018.

[lfromnj]

Riggleman seems like the dude who probably does win the few Republicans in the UVA college(btw the most conservative area in college towns are actually the campus's themselves, because they include people from all around the state and that includes conservatives who had to choose a college anyway.) but the problem for him is that Coronavirus has shutdown campus and all those living there so he won't get any delegates there, Ik liberty university is really conservative, but he probably wins college students there too but corona virus shut that down too.

[lfromnj]

https://projects.jhkforecasts.com/house-forecast/

Jhk house forecast.
Pretty good measure where the house is at right now, mostly agree with most ratings.

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1257286796523814914
Trump is actually endorsing the grift
.

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1259923890664615936

Its getting better !

This is the R incumbent for Nebraska 3rd(its fine to do an endorsement the day before the primary)
But he actually linked to the 11th reddest district in the nation the day before the primary which means the money is absolutely useless.

Actually tbh this district was competitive in 2006 so maybe tossup/tilt D IMHO?

[lfromnj]

No ad buys in Austin despite there being 3-4 competitive seats there. Grossly incompetent.

As far as I can tell it's really just Wendy Davis where the Ds have a good recruit. And Davis has already been a monster fundraiser, TX 31 doesn't have another Hegar tier recruit which is what was really needed as its a bit redder and so is Tx 25. TX 10 should be competitive as Beto did carry it, so its worth a shot of course. TX 17th is a decent bit redder and Beto only barely got within single digits here so its Safe R(although I do wonder how Chet Edwards would have done here)
Inb4 republicans tell me that davis crashed in 2014.
She won a romney +9 suburban district in 2012.
In 2014 she collapsed to awful non white turnout but check her suburban white numbers. For example Sarah davis,s romney+15 , Clinton+15 district was almost carried by Wendy in 2014. Also her austin numbers were better than Obama in 2012. Shes perfect for a white district like tx 21

[lfromnj]

To show how strong Davis is as a fundraiser, she literally raised 1.2 million in a Quarter as a house candidate !. Compare that to Chip Roy's 450k

[lfromnj]

No ad buys in Austin despite there being 3-4 competitive seats there. Grossly incompetent.

As far as I can tell it's really just Wendy Davis where the Ds have a good recruit. And Davis has already been a monster fundraiser, TX 31 doesn't have another Hegar tier recruit which is what was really needed as its a bit redder and so is Tx 25. TX 10 should be competitive as Beto did carry it, so its worth a shot of course. TX 17th is a decent bit redder and Beto only barely got within single digits here so its Safe R(although I do wonder how Chet Edwards would have done here)
Inb4 republicans tell me that davis crashed in 2014.
She won a romney +9 suburban district in 2012.
In 2014 she collapsed to awful non white turnout but check her suburban white numbers. For example Sarah davis,s romney+15 , Clinton+15 district was almost carried by Wendy in 2014. Also her austin numbers were better than Obama in 2012. Shes perfect for a white district like tx 21

Genuine question -- why not run in TX-10? Unlike TX-21, it's actually a Rourke district and not a Cruz one

The difference was literally +0.1 Cruz and +0.1 Beto so almost negligible and Chip Roy is probably a little bit of a worse candidate(like half a point but helps a lot at the margins) Id still bet against Davis but not by much(like somewhere between a 35 to 40% chance for her)

[lfromnj]

Yeah thats an awful poll for Eastman for an internal poll. I highly doubt Biden's carrying NE 2 by 11 points.

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/KatieHill4CA/status/1263942245654433795

Hills getting involved into the races probably to grift lol.

[lfromnj]

We have an NY-15 poll from Data for Progress:
http://filesforprogress.org/memos/ny-15-2020-june.pdf

Sampling dates: May 21-24
Sample size: 323 likely voters

Diaz Sr 22%
Torres 20%
Blake 6%
Rodriguez 6%
Viverito 6%
Lopez 2%
Ortiz 1%
Pabon 1%
Ramos 1%
Undecided 34%

I think Torres narrowly pulls ahead by the end of all this, in part thanks to undecided voters breaking in his favour.

Not to mention that those numbers were sampled before Diaz was an a**hole about the Floyd protests.

Do you mean the engel video?
That was his son Ruben Diaz jr.

[lfromnj]

Can people just stop looking at the generic ballot for congressional districts in selzer polls. Selzer is a pretty solid pollster even if they have started to struggle a bit during the Trump era.  However the district crosstab is just that, it's a cross tab that isnt even weighted properly.

[lfromnj]

https://thewashingtonsentinel.com/free-speech-candidate-laura-loomer-opens-9-point-lead-in-florida-congressional-race/

Laura Loomer's internal in FL-21 (published on June 20, but with no sampling period/size/MoE details otherwise released) has the following:

PRIMARY
51% Loomer
4% "Nearest challenger"
Apparently an 11% improvement for her on where the race was in January

GENERAL
65% Loomer (R)
19% Frankel (D)

LOL.

[lfromnj]

I swear just because a seat looks narrow doesn't mean its not Safe, even in a R wave year Butterfield or Bishop's seat would be safe D for now(assume certain depopulation trends don't continue or blacks stay where they are politically)

[lfromnj]

Theres literally no reason for a progressive or moderate Democrats to back Kim Olson after she gifted the NRCC that ad about burning everything down.

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/SenhorRaposa/status/1283590499786526720

Dunno if it's actually true, but just lol. How you guys manage to get along with parties so goddamn stupid is beyond me.

It’s real. Nancy Pelosi should just get all the liberal black women in the House from safe seats to go on Fox News every night and just start trolling and get the Fox hosts amped. Their challengers would raise so much money from the racist viewers in lost cause seats lol

Omar did this too but now it's also costing Democrats a few million on a primary battle.