Emerson - Nevada (Everyone, but Biden, trails Trump)

[lfromnj]

Ah sweet NV, the place where polls go to die.

That said, I don't believe this is an impossible state for Trump. If he wins the popular vote, he certainly can win the state.

I think the point of the meme is rather making fun of all the states Emerson polled today.

Nevada is not voting R while the other swing states vote D.

[lfromnj]

After so many years, people still don't learn their lesson about NV polling.

NeVaDa PoLLs aRe iNacCuRaTe, sO tHe 2012-2018 and 2016-2018 R tReNd DoEsN’t MaTtEr.

Maybe you'd have a point if there was an R trend.

there literally was an R trend in 2016.

[lfromnj]

After so many years, people still don't learn their lesson about NV polling.

NeVaDa PoLLs aRe iNacCuRaTe, sO tHe 2012-2018 and 2016-2018 R tReNd DoEsN’t MaTtEr.

Maybe you'd have a point if there was an R trend.

there literally was an R trend in 2016.

From 2016 to 2018 Nevada trended D.

Not really.

In 2016 it was D+2 around. It was around +4.5(senate +5 Gov+4.1 the other races were a bit closer). Nation went from D+2 to D+8 or 9.

Even house went from D+1 in 2016 to D+6 in 2018.

Thats the definition of an R trend lol.

[lfromnj]

After so many years, people still don't learn their lesson about NV polling.

NeVaDa PoLLs aRe iNacCuRaTe, sO tHe 2012-2018 and 2016-2018 R tReNd DoEsN’t MaTtEr.

Maybe you'd have a point if there was an R trend.

there literally was an R trend in 2016.

From 2016 to 2018 Nevada trended D.

Not really.

In 2016 it was D+2 around. It was around +4.5(senate +5 Gov+4.1 the other races were a bit closer). Nation went from D+2 to D+8 or 9.

Even house went from D+1 in 2016 to D+6 in 2018.

Thats the definition of an R trend lol.

You really have to twist numbers to make that an R trend. How some people are able to convince themselves that a 5 point shift towards Democrats is the definition of an R trend is beyond me.

But thats literally the definition of a trend. It moved right compared to the rest of the nation. For example NC moved left in 2016 to the rest of the nation despite swinging R. Trend does not mean swing.

[lfromnj]

After so many years, people still don't learn their lesson about NV polling.

NeVaDa PoLLs aRe iNacCuRaTe, sO tHe 2012-2018 and 2016-2018 R tReNd DoEsN’t MaTtEr.

Maybe you'd have a point if there was an R trend.

there literally was an R trend in 2016.

From 2016 to 2018 Nevada trended D.

Not really.

In 2016 it was D+2 around. It was around +4.5(senate +5 Gov+4.1 the other races were a bit closer). Nation went from D+2 to D+8 or 9.

Even house went from D+1 in 2016 to D+6 in 2018.

Thats the definition of an R trend lol.

You really have to twist numbers to make that an R trend. How some people are able to convince themselves that a 5 point shift towards Democrats is the definition of an R trend is beyond me.

But thats literally the definition of a trend. It moved right compared to the rest of the nation. For example NC moved left in 2016 to the rest of the nation despite swinging R. Trend does not mean swing.

No, it's not.  Unsurprisingly, some states trend more than others.  By your logic, any state that trends less than the average amount toward one party, is trending toward the other party.  This is completely nonsensical. 

Let's turn it around: suppose that in the next election, the national average is R+20.  Some states are R+30, while others are R+10.  Did the R+10 states trend D?  Of course not; they trended R, but the trend was less than the average.

Basically, if a state is D+(any significant number), it trended D.  If it's R+(any significant number), it trended R.  That's the definition of trend.

https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/index.html

This is literally the defintion of trend as used by atlas forum. Look at 2016 trends.

[lfromnj]

After so many years, people still don't learn their lesson about NV polling.

NeVaDa PoLLs aRe iNacCuRaTe, sO tHe 2012-2018 and 2016-2018 R tReNd DoEsN’t MaTtEr.

Maybe you'd have a point if there was an R trend.

there literally was an R trend in 2016.

From 2016 to 2018 Nevada trended D.

Not really.

In 2016 it was D+2 around. It was around +4.5(senate +5 Gov+4.1 the other races were a bit closer). Nation went from D+2 to D+8 or 9.

Even house went from D+1 in 2016 to D+6 in 2018.

Thats the definition of an R trend lol.

You really have to twist numbers to make that an R trend. How some people are able to convince themselves that a 5 point shift towards Democrats is the definition of an R trend is beyond me.

But thats literally the definition of a trend. It moved right compared to the rest of the nation. For example NC moved left in 2016 to the rest of the nation despite swinging R. Trend does not mean swing.

No, it's not.  Unsurprisingly, some states trend more than others.  By your logic, any state that trends less than the average amount toward one party, is trending toward the other party.  This is completely nonsensical. 

Let's turn it around: suppose that in the next election, the national average is R+20.  Some states are R+30, while others are R+10.  Did the R+10 states trend D?  Of course not; they trended R, but the trend was less than the average.

Basically, if a state is D+(any significant number), it trended D.  If it's R+(any significant number), it trended R.  That's the definition of trend.

https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/index.html

This is literally the defintion of trend as used by atlas forum. Look at 2016 trends.

OK, I'll concede the point.  I think the problem in the discussion, though, is confusion between the terms swing and trend (and I'll admit I was one of those mixing them).

I mean its literally my sig. Anyway thx for conceding the point as it is a pretty common but funny mistake. Still waiting for Ninja.

[lfromnj]

Well Nevada did trend R if you want to look at the 2016-18 swing but I don't believe in using midterm results to figure out trends, trends are calculated only using Presidential results and what happens in a midterm in any case doesn't really say much about future trends.

Look at Pennsylvania in 2006, Casey defeated the incumbent Republican Senator by 17%, I'm pretty sure that's one of the biggest margins of defeat for an incumbent senator in history and the Democratic governor won re-election by 21% and Dems picked up 4 house seats, complete slaughter for the GOP in Pennsylvania, yet in 2008 the state trended R+1.9 moving from a lean of D+5 in 2004 to D+3.1 in 2008 despite the 2006 outcome.

Oh im not that big a fan of using midterm results. For example Iowa/OH and other #populist areas trended D while #shrillneoliberal areas had a light R trend mostly due to bounceback. Im just stating the definition of a trend and by that definition Nevada Trended R in 2016 and 2018 relative to 2012 and 2016.