Manchin V Morrisey 2016 instead of 2018. Would Manchin have done better?

[lfromnj]

Say the Manchin v Morrisey senate race was held in 2016 instead of 2018. Do any of you think that Manchin would have done better. I think he would atleast  have won a lot of coal counties.

[lfromnj]

To those who believe that its certain that Manchin would have done worse in 2016 I am not sure.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_States_Senate_election_in_Washington

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_United_States_Senate_election_in_Washington

Despite the fact the environment was about 8 points better and that Cantwell/Murray are relatively  inoffensive incumbents Cantwell lost grays harbor which was a county that voted for every democrat since FDR until Trump. However Murray won this in 2016 which suggests that many people here were only voting republican for the first time in their lifes. In 2018 they promptly turned around and continued voting R even downballot.