Virginia passes redistricting commision (user search)
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  Virginia passes redistricting commision (search mode)
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Author Topic: Virginia passes redistricting commision  (Read 1884 times)
lfromnj
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« on: February 23, 2019, 07:39:17 PM »

VA GOP isn't that stupid. A fair map would probably be 6-1-4.


https://twitter.com/1VA2021/status/1099438495746215936
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lfromnj
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« Reply #1 on: February 23, 2019, 07:50:26 PM »

I don't think Northam will veto it but the good news for D hacks on this forum is that amendments in VA have to pass both this year and in the next session so Dems can just ignore it next session(next year after elections) where D's almost certainly have won a trifecta.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #2 on: February 24, 2019, 02:59:26 PM »


I agree with this.

Apparently Virginia Dems like to handcuff themselves when they get power. Good luck winning the House next decade when Republicans gerrymander TX, GA, OH and NC while Democrats decide to restrain themselves. Idiots

TX, GA and NC is going to see massive Democratic gains in the state legislature over the next few years. There is also little room to gain via gerrymandering those states.

North Carolina isn't even a sure thing for Republicans. It seems quite likely that the state courts are going to go where Pennsylvania did last year or at least pretty close. As for Texas, I think Democrats should make a serious effort for the TX House next year. Democrats made huge gains last year and appear to be within striking distance. Even if they can't get the majority back just yet, a close enough margin could extract serious concessions for the post-2020 maps.

I'd imagine GA would likely be a status quo map. Republicans will likely shore up GA-07 by ceding GA-06.

The biggest problem for Democrats by far is Ohio. I think that is without question the strongest Republican gerrymander this decade. It remains to be seen how the so-called reform will go to restore at least a reasonably fair balance.

The Texas Constitution also has really strict rules when it comes to redistricting the state House which make it difficult to gerrymander.

Is it a no unnecessary county splits rule like KY? 

I think TX House and even GA House are in reach for Democrats in a scenario where Trump loses reelection.  The redistricting stakes are high enough that there should be substantial investment, particularly in Texas.

afaik a county can basically only be split once and even then it has to be filled up. Say a district is 200k people each and Dallas county has 2.1 million people and Tarrant has 1.5 million
That means Dallas gets 10 state house districts and Tarrant gets 7 and there is a combined district between both of them for a total of 18.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #3 on: February 25, 2019, 09:10:19 AM »

Will redistricting commissions and anti gerrymandering amendments force the state legislatures to draw fair maps? Only having fair maps at the house level is still a handicap for Democrats. I am sure those GOP hacks in MI and WI will be more than willing to draw fair state legislative maps.

why tf would a court draw a blatant gerrymander even if it is GOP controlled? You might get something like NJ where it is GOP tilted but is still winnable in a wave.
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