You Are The NRCC, How To Take Back The House?

[lfromnj]

Spend more money on va 10th buy triage populist me 2nd

[lfromnj]

Obviously by targeting these seats:

AZ-02
CA-07
CA-16
CA-21
CA-25
CO-06
FL-26
FL-27
GA-06
IL-06
IL-17
KS-03
MI-13
MN-03
MN-05
NV-03
NV-04
NJ-07
NY-04
NY-14
OH-13
OR-04
OR-05
PA-17
RI-02
TX-32
VA-10
WA-01
WA-06
WA-08

Putting a moderate contest on Bustos and forcing her to campaign in her own district and distracting her from any national campaign can be worth it. It is a trump district too.

[lfromnj]

Defend

GA-07
IL-13
MN-01
MO-02
MT-AL
NE-02
NC-02
NC-09
NC-13
NY-01
NY-02
NY-24
NY-27
OH-01
OH-10
OH-12
PA-01
PA-10
TX-02
TX-10
TX-21
TX-23
TX-24

Must pick up

GA-06
IA-01
IA-03
ME-02
MI-08
NJ-02
NJ-03
MN-07
NM-02
NY-11
NY-19
NY-22
OK-05
PA-08
SC-01
UT-04
VA-02
VA-07

Would be nice to pick up

AZ-01
CA-10
CA-45
CA-49
CT-05
FL-26
IL-14
KS-03
MI-11
MN-02
NV-03
NV-04
NH-01
NJ-05
NJ-07
NJ-11
NY-18
OR-05
PA-07
WA-08

Unlikely to come back

AZ-02
CA-21
CA-25
CA-39
CA-49
CO-06
FL-07
FL-27
MN-03
PA-05
PA-06
TX-07
TX-32
VA-10

Essentially the must-win list and maybe a quarter of the "would be nice" list would grant Republicans a decent majority.

Why is GA 06th a must pick up?

its almost certianly gonna vote for the D nominee in 2020 solely due to pop change

Im pretty sure obama did better in 12 than 08 in this area

[lfromnj]

Defend

GA-07
IL-13
MN-01
MO-02
MT-AL
NE-02
NC-02
NC-09
NC-13
NY-01
NY-02
NY-24
NY-27
OH-01
OH-10
OH-12
PA-01
PA-10
TX-02
TX-10
TX-21
TX-23
TX-24

Must pick up

GA-06
IA-01
IA-03
ME-02
MI-08
NJ-02
NJ-03
MN-07
NM-02
NY-11
NY-19
NY-22
OK-05
PA-08
SC-01
UT-04
VA-02
VA-07

Would be nice to pick up

AZ-01
CA-10
CA-45
CA-49
CT-05
FL-26
IL-14
KS-03
MI-11
MN-02
NV-03
NV-04
NH-01
NJ-05
NJ-07
NJ-11
NY-18
OR-05
PA-07
WA-08

Unlikely to come back

AZ-02
CA-21
CA-25
CA-39
CA-49
CO-06
FL-07
FL-27
MN-03
PA-05
PA-06
TX-07
TX-32
VA-10

Essentially the must-win list and maybe a quarter of the "would be nice" list would grant Republicans a decent majority.

Why is GA 06th a must pick up?

its almost certianly gonna vote for the D nominee in 2020 solely due to pop change

Im pretty sure obama did better in 12 than 08 in this area

On the topic, why did Romney do so well in TX-07/TX-32 (better than McCain)?

GA population change is on a whole another level than Texas which is steady but strong

[lfromnj]

Win the roughly dozen low hanging fruit in seats Trump will easily win:
OK-05
MN-07
SC-01
UT-04
ME-02
NM-02
NY-22
NY-11
NY-19
NJ-03
PA-08

Pick up a chunk of GOP-leaning swing seats with non-entrenched Dem incumbents:
IA-01
NH-01
NJ-02
VA-07
VA-02
AZ-01
IA-03
IL-14
MI-08
MN-02

Seriously challenge Dem incumbents in right-trending seats that have yet to be seriously challenged:
WI-03
IA-02
IL-17
OH-09 or whatever Tim Ryan’s seat is

Oh 13th and lol no Tim Ryans seat wont be competetive in 2020 unless he retires and even then its a big if

Its such a D sink even Clinton won it by 7 points

[lfromnj]

Win the roughly dozen low hanging fruit in seats Trump will easily win:
OK-05
MN-07
SC-01
UT-04
ME-02
NM-02
NY-22
NY-11
NY-19
NJ-03
PA-08

Pick up a chunk of GOP-leaning swing seats with non-entrenched Dem incumbents:
IA-01
NH-01
NJ-02
VA-07
VA-02
AZ-01
IA-03
IL-14
MI-08
MN-02

Seriously challenge Dem incumbents in right-trending seats that have yet to be seriously challenged:
WI-03
IA-02
IL-17
OH-09 or whatever Tim Ryan’s seat is

Oh 13th and lol no Tim Ryans seat wont be competetive in 2020 unless he retires and even then its a big if

Its such a D sink even Clinton won it by 7 points

Dems lost Schiavoni’s old state senate seat in this area in a D+9 wave so I doubt those trends are slowing down

SD 33 Is obama +17 Trump +10.
OH 13th is Obama+25 Clinton+7.



Big difference man

[lfromnj]

Saying Ron Kind is safe(I think he is heavily favored) Is like saying Pete sessions is safe in 2017.