Most overrated/underrated Senate candidates? Part III (2020)

[lfromnj]

I guess I'll go by Atlas standards, since there hasn't really been enough to judge from pundit "conventional wisdom" yet.

Overrated:
Jones (He has zero chance and only won because his opponent was a pedophile)
Roberts (An old fossil who struggled to win in a red wave year in a D trending state is not safe, but leave it to Atlas to think he's less likely to lose than McConnell)
Peters (Peters is mediocre and only won in a landslide because his opponent imploded, and Stabenow just underperformed the generic ballot numbers significantly)
Cornyn (Yes, he's less controversial than Cruz, but he's also a total nonentity, which is rarely a good thing)

Underrated:
Sullivan (Some think this could be competitive, but it won't be)
Gardner (He will likely lose, but the race is not safe D this early)
Ernst (As you said, people will way underestimate her #populism and folksiness and what the hell ever, as well as Iowa's Republican trend)
McConnell (It's getting like Charlie Brown and Lucy at this point. The idea that Dems could knock off McConnell at the same time Trump is carrying the state by 30+ points is comical)
Collins (She's definitely more vulnerable than she has been in the past, but that's not saying much. Atlas D hacks already writing her obituary need to check themselves)
Hyde-Smith (She has zero chance of losing a primary or a general)
Warner (Just because some people actually think it isn't safe D)

Most of the underrated are Republicans since this site is filled with D hacks, but that could change once we get some spicy hot takes from the pundits, like when they told me Shalala, Lamb, Wexton, and Rosen were in toss up races.

Agree on all besides alaska. Alaska is idiosyncratic enough that something weird could happen. I don't think it's super competetive but it could be on the edge of the field.I also think erst is probably gonna win but mostly because the dems will nominate tom vilsack instead of jd scholten.

And I laugh at people who think that Gardner is as doomed as doug jones. No one thinks Gardner will win but he still has a chance this far out

[lfromnj]

Big Bad John lost Harris County by single digits.

In all seriousness, Texas Republicans really exceeded expectations tonight. They held the State House. Sarah Davis unfortunately appears lost in her very blue Houston seat, but at least it was by a respectable 4-point margin, and I would think she ran far ahead of Trump.

Crenshaw and Williams won by 14, Taylor by 12, Carter and Wright by 9, McCaul, Roy and Nehls by 7, Wesley got within 3, Van Duyne is leading, and Tony Gonzales won after all the forecasters wrote him off (Dammit Will, why'd you have to retire? You would have held it!!!). I guess the Austin gerrymander held up after all, although they should still probably concede a vote sink. Did anyone expect this?

Yeah really good and I think the GOP can get away with
10-29

1 El paso
1 Rio Grande
3 Harris
3 Dallas
1 Austin
1 San Antonio
Crack the rest of the Rio Grande valley to elect Hispanic Republicans.