Congressional Special Election (last call! unstickied after NY-27 final results)

[lfromnj]

Anyway all 3 D candidates had pretty solid profiles overall so they all have a decent chance of getting it within single digits.

[lfromnj]

Nice don't need to wait till November.

[lfromnj]

So umm... Pennsylvania is voting today. Any predictions?

about what wolf got like 40 60

[lfromnj]

62-38 GOP win in PA 12 is my guess

County breakdown guesses

Lycoming 66-34 Keller

Centre 67-33 Friedenberg

Bradford 69-31 Keller

Northumberland 66-34 Keller

Perry 71-29 Keller

Susquehanna 67-33 Keller

Tioga 72-28 Keller

Union 65-35 Keller

Mifflin 75-25 Keller

Snyder 75-25 Keller

Clinton 59-41 Keller

Wyoming 64-36 Keller

Juniata 76-24 Keller

Potter 76-24 Keller

Sullivan 67-33 Keller

Btw is all of centre county in the district or just state college?

[lfromnj]

62-38 GOP win in PA 12 is my guess

County breakdown guesses

Lycoming 66-34 Keller

Centre 67-33 Friedenberg

Bradford 69-31 Keller

Northumberland 66-34 Keller

Perry 71-29 Keller

Susquehanna 67-33 Keller

Tioga 72-28 Keller

Union 65-35 Keller

Mifflin 75-25 Keller

Snyder 75-25 Keller

Clinton 59-41 Keller

Wyoming 64-36 Keller

Juniata 76-24 Keller

Potter 76-24 Keller

Sullivan 67-33 Keller

Btw is all of centre county in the district or just state college?

Just state college, the rest of it is in PA 15.

thx. Your Centre county did look a bit D friendly thats why.

[lfromnj]

Wyoming County also at 2018 levels

-----------------------------------


WULFRIC PROJECTION:


Candidate   Party   Votes   Pct.
Fred Keller
Republican
16,145   70.1%
Marc Friedenberg
Democrat
6,882   29.9
23,027 votes, 20% reporting (109 of 555 precincts)

Wow this is just sad

Wait those votes are off. Trump got 9k votes here in 2016 There is no way that a Republican got double the votes of Trump in a SE.

[lfromnj]

Wasserman says Centre will determine who wins

Says rural areas in line with 2018, but if Centre turnout spikes big, dems could steal the race

Where are you seeing this?

He trolls like this. Usually a average to slight FF poster but has troll moments like these.

[lfromnj]

lol

[lfromnj]

Overall a bit dissapointing margin for D's but no biggie overall

[lfromnj]

Well it was still a fraction of a percent closer than the 2016 Prez GE so there is still that

Yeah all that canvassing really brought the margins down.

[lfromnj]

Aren't the rurals in this district still left of the urban areas? Its much closer than it was like in the Obama era but suburban Charlotte+Union is still+GOP while the rural areas are DEmocrat.

[lfromnj]

Aren't the rurals in this district still left of the urban areas? Its much closer than it was like in the Obama era but suburban Charlotte+Union is still+GOP while the rural areas are DEmocrat.

May be they are. But that still not makes this district especially liberal (after all it was 56% Trump). So my main argument still holds: it's rather difficult to be "too far to the right" in this district, but very easy - "too far to the left"...

Why do you think Harris, who was much further right than the incumbent he defeated in the primary, narrowly lost the general election last fall if not for fraud? Clearly he may well have been too far to the right for this district.

The fact, that such person as Harris, who is clearly far right, got approximately the same number of votes as McCready, who, by present Democratic standards, is "rather conservative Blue Dog", and the only poll we have, where also very conservative Bishop leads McCready by 4 despite all scandals and his own ultraconservative reputation, is a proof to me, that in this district it's really difficult to be "too far to the right" and very easy - "too far to the left". If McCready wins - he, probably, will be among 10 "most conservative" House Democrat, but even that may be "not enough".

Bishops state senate district is Trump +3 but he won by 6 points in 2018 and its very suburban. He isn't a weak candidate by any measure.

[lfromnj]

Aren't the rurals in this district still left of the urban areas? Its much closer than it was like in the Obama era but suburban Charlotte+Union is still+GOP while the rural areas are DEmocrat.

May be they are. But that still not makes this district especially liberal (after all it was 56% Trump). So my main argument still holds: it's rather difficult to be "too far to the right" in this district, but very easy - "too far to the left"...

Why do you think Harris, who was much further right than the incumbent he defeated in the primary, narrowly lost the general election last fall if not for fraud? Clearly he may well have been too far to the right for this district.

The fact, that such person as Harris, who is clearly far right, got approximately the same number of votes as McCready, who, by present Democratic standards, is "rather conservative Blue Dog", and the only poll we have, where also very conservative Bishop leads McCready by 4 despite all scandals and his own ultraconservative reputation, is a proof to me, that in this district it's really difficult to be "too far to the right" and very easy - "too far to the left". If McCready wins - he, probably, will be among 10 "most conservative" House Democrat, but even that may be "not enough".

Bishops state senate district is Trump +3 but he won by 6 points in 2018 and its very suburban. He isn't a weak candidate by any measure.

I never said he is weak. But he has considerable notoriety for his legislative activity, and is rather far right himself. Nevertheless - he leads. That says at least something about the district..

Ideology matters far less than #pundits think. Does it say his state senate district is far right despite being left of NC as a whole because it voted for him?

[lfromnj]

Aren't the rurals in this district still left of the urban areas? Its much closer than it was like in the Obama era but suburban Charlotte+Union is still+GOP while the rural areas are DEmocrat.

May be they are. But that still not makes this district especially liberal (after all it was 56% Trump). So my main argument still holds: it's rather difficult to be "too far to the right" in this district, but very easy - "too far to the left"...

Why do you think Harris, who was much further right than the incumbent he defeated in the primary, narrowly lost the general election last fall if not for fraud? Clearly he may well have been too far to the right for this district.

The fact, that such person as Harris, who is clearly far right, got approximately the same number of votes as McCready, who, by present Democratic standards, is "rather conservative Blue Dog", and the only poll we have, where also very conservative Bishop leads McCready by 4 despite all scandals and his own ultraconservative reputation, is a proof to me, that in this district it's really difficult to be "too far to the right" and very easy - "too far to the left". If McCready wins - he, probably, will be among 10 "most conservative" House Democrat, but even that may be "not enough".

Bishops state senate district is Trump +3 but he won by 6 points in 2018 and its very suburban. He isn't a weak candidate by any measure.

I never said he is weak. But he has considerable notoriety for his legislative activity, and is rather far right himself. Nevertheless - he leads. That says at least something about the district..

Ideology matters far less than #pundits think. Does it say his state senate district is far right despite being left of NC as a whole because it voted for him?

Well, usually left-leaning district doesn't vote for rightists and vice versa. Exceptions happen, but - not too frequently...

I mean a trump+3 suburban district is clearly a leftish/swingish leaning district in a year like 2018 yet it voted for Mcready.

[lfromnj]

^ Let's wait and see. In less then 3,5 month we will know results, and many things will be much clearer...

True but just wondering would you consider MN 07 a left leaning district in 2014 because it voted for Al Franken in a GOP wave year?

[lfromnj]

Pretty sure Joan Perry endorsed Democrats as recently as 2012.

[lfromnj]

Why would he even release this when the most recent public poll has him leading?

[lfromnj]

https://rrhelections.com/index.php/2019/08/16/weekend-open-thread-for-august-16-18-2019/#comments

RRH doing a poll of both specials.

[lfromnj]

Anyone thinks its possible NC 03 could be closer than NC 09. Im not predicting that but I wouldn't be shocked, special elections are whack. Ga 6th should have been a gimme for the D's just like PA 12th in 2010 but both failed yet SC 5th was close on the same night.

[lfromnj]

Anyone thinks its possible NC 03 could be closer than NC 09. Im not predicting that but I wouldn't be shocked, special elections are whack. Ga 6th should have been a gimme for the D's just like PA 12th in 2010 but both failed yet SC 5th was close on the same night.

I'm doubtful about that. NC-9, contrary to NC-3, has a significant population of white liberals, these voters are fired-up, including for unconsequential low turnout special elections, it's the main reason why McCready is in a good position, the democratic electorate in NC-3 on the other hand is mostly composed of black voters who are unlikely to storm the polls in order to vote in a special election. Murphy will win easily but NC-9 will be close.

I mean there is a hurricane coming too, it shouldn't affect NC 09 much NC03 turnout could go down like crazy and thats when we get whack results

[lfromnj]

Wait, they have black voters split 46-42 in McCready's favor?

LMAO RRH

Probably a small sample size

Even with a small sample size of 125 its impossible to go from 90% to maybe 85% to around 44% D. The MOE for 100-125 should be around 9-12% ish. 

[lfromnj]

They're very similar to the 43,000 Republicans who voted for Mark Harris who did not show up to vote for Dan Bishop.

You mean these 43,000 Republicans see their party locked of the country's executive, legislative and judiciary and thus have only the polls to express their disgust at the way things are going in their country?

The situation is quite asymmetric.

But this was about the house?

[lfromnj]

This is basically educated white libs showing up for any election in a special election era but other voters not wanting to show up.

[lfromnj]

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/sean-duffy-joins-lobbying-firm-after-leaving-congress

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAAHHAHA

And Here I gave him the benefit of family with a special needs child

[lfromnj]

https://tableau.the-pdi.com/t/CampaignTools/views/25thCDSpecialAVTracker/2020SpecialElectionTrackerVB?:embed=y

Ballot return in CA
D's don't panick yet anyway its still super early with GOP skewing ballots, D skewing ballots should come later especially as Newsom didn't ban door to door ballot harvesting.