Election 2018 Open Thread - Part 1

[lfromnj]

What's Tester's shot to hang on?

82% chance of winning.

R margin quite a bit larger than last check--where are the remaining votes coming from?

hmm maybe  Missoula.
Obviously it can't be Gallatin
Tester is  #populist so he will win garfield county due to a recount but will lose Gallatin due to it being a Romney Clinton county.

[lfromnj]

Funny thing:

In 2012, the Senate margin of all 33 states was D+12 and Dems gained 2 seats.

Now, the Senate margin in all 35 states is D+15 and Dems lost 3 Senate seats with basically the same people running on the Dem side as in 2012 ...

Dems ahead by 46 million votes to 33 million votes for the Republicans in the Senate.

What happens if you replace california with the gubernatorial votes and add maybe 5 percent to the dems?

[lfromnj]

I'm noticing a pollster that performed relatively well: Emerson.

And everyone around here acts like their polls are trash lol.

Emerson is ok its just they are pretty bad early in the cycle because they have too many undecideds.

[lfromnj]

If this were a midterm with Hillary Clinton in the White House, could John James have pulled it out in Michigan?

Republicans would have historic numbers in the House and Senate.  It’d be a bloodbath of a midterm.

Meh I think the senate would be brutal but the house would probably be like back to 2014 and maybe 2or 3 seats lower. Reps didn't have many more targets.

[lfromnj]

^Seriously. He thought IN and MO were far less likely to flip than TX/TN/even ND(?).

Anyway, it’s certainly true that no one should be counted out two years before an election, but things really aren’t looking good for Cory Gardner, Doug Jones, and Steve Daines right now.

Though who decides to run in MT heavily affects Daines' prospects.

Safe R if anybody but Bullock or Schweitzer. Lean with bullock and I have no ing clue with Schweitzer as he has more #populism in him than Jon tester.

[lfromnj]

HOLY sh**t did anyone See HAYS County texas. IT WENT FROM 46.2 46.0 Trump-Clinton to 57.4 41 Beto Cruz. That is a ing 16 point swing in an Austin Suburb.

[lfromnj]

Andy Kim officially took the lead.

Nice! 11-1!

Even Chris Smith got a far closer race than he's used to. It's amazing NJ Dems managed to do so well despite Menendez's toxicity.

Big failure by Van Drew to barely win by 5 in a so called Safe Seat. Like ik pundits aren't the best but I generally do take their calls on the safe seats.

[lfromnj]

Honestly, I feel a little sorry for Kathleen Williams. I didn’t support her or anything, but she didn’t deserve to do eight points worse than Tester, and it can’t all be chalked up to causes related to her campaign. She could have run a flawless campaign and there still would have been a ton of Trump/Tester/Gianforte voters. She might even lose by more than Rob Quist, which honestly makes me a little uneasy.

I think she might have saved Jon Tester by increasing progressive turnout?

[lfromnj]

Andy Kim officially took the lead.

Nice! 11-1!

Even Chris Smith got a far closer race than he's used to. It's amazing NJ Dems managed to do so well despite Menendez's toxicity.

Big failure by Van Drew to barely win by 5 in a so called Safe Seat. Like ik pundits aren't the best but I generally do take their calls on the safe seats.

The thing here is that this is the kind of district Dems have tanked in since 2012. It’s not metropolitan at all. I attribute the closeness to the fundamentals. The district was safe because Van Drew was supposed to be unbeatable titanium and the Republican was horrible, but it turns out VD wasn’t such a Superman.

Im still annoyed that the reps spent millions against Sherril only to lose by 12 and then gave up 3 days after the primary for Van Drew.

[lfromnj]

Does anyone else think that Mitt Romney's win in Utah was a little underwhelming? Barley getting 60% and losing two counties he won when he ran in 2012, plus maybe an outside shot of losing Salt Lake County.

yeah of course it was.  Mcadams looks like a slight favorite to win and Ghorbani only lost by 20. Imagine mormons actually becoming democrat coz of Trump lol.

[lfromnj]

Anyone else think it's funny that with all the fools in here cheering or whining thinking Tester was going to lose and he's going to end up with the biggest victory of his career.

Looks like montana has a whole isn't gone. Remember that Trump campaigned more against tester than anybody else and still the rural hicks in MT loved Testers haircut so they voted for him.

[lfromnj]

Don't look now but... the  Florida races aren't over.

Rick Scott 50.1%

Bill Nelson 49.9%

Nelson is down by only 22,000 votes

Ron DeSantis 49.6%

Andrew Gillum 49.1%

Gillum is down by only 43,000 votes.

Gillum is done 43000 is way too large.
I give Nelson 1/10

[lfromnj]

If nelson and sinema win im willing to call it a blue wave.

[lfromnj]

Looks like Williams will end up doing better than Quist after all.

RATINGS CHANGE: Montana: #Populist -> Neoliberal Shill

GALLATIN COUNTY

[lfromnj]

Wow, Torres Small won!!!!!!

Republican delegation from NM = 0. 

Name a more classic duo
Steve Pearce and running for statewide office during a democrat leaning year and also losing his congressional district in the process.

[lfromnj]

Wow Handel went down

So democrats wanted Ryans seat the most in 2016 instead they got Gingrich's Hasterts and Hw bush's.

and RINO Tom says nothing changed.

[lfromnj]

Honestly the Ga 6th special election looking back on it was easily the worst competetive federal special election for the dems(The utah and texas one were worse but the dems didn't care) The fact they couldn't win a special election in a trump +1 district was kind of embarrassing and it should have been a freebie. I feel like the dems got whiffed and didn't want to try again until this late.

[lfromnj]

Gillums still done I really dont hear about any more votes for him but Nelson just might make it and Florida dems incompotence get the concession prize of the incredibly important AG commissioner.

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/troykinsey/status/1060688002442293249?s=21

Dang, that's a huge discrepancy between Gillum and Nelson.  A couple months ago, we thought that Gillum would have been Nelson's political savior.

Even if Gillum loses and Nelson wins, Gillum increasing African American turnout could well have pushed Nelson over the finish line.

yeah its clear that they had a combo which should have worked and it did in areas like Duval which is just weird to think of.

[lfromnj]

Although, if you had asked me which of the 4 democrat senators lost, I'd have said Tester instead of Nelson.

Yeah I was really shocked about Nelson losing and my fundamentals were way off there. I just didn't believe an incumbent in a swing state would lose this year.

[lfromnj]

Here is a thought, AZ State Senate and AZ state house last night were both two seats short of Dem takeovers. Where does that stand?

Where there any close seats?

Here is a basic breakdown, yesterday I read if dems hold their leads, its 31 -29 R House.

https://www.azcentral.com/story/news/politics/elections/2018/11/06/arizona-legislature-election-results-democrats-seek-end-gop-control/1809261002/

Yesterday's though ^

BUt tHE mIDweSt is wHeRe its at. before everyone says muh gerrymanders Texas was gerrymandered to hell and back and they destroyed that state house gerrymander and almost broke the congressional one with some severe damage to it.

[lfromnj]

If Democrats manage to take the Arizona senate seat and all of the outstanding California congressional districts...then I would say they had a very good midterm overall.  It certainly wasn't perfect and I probably wouldn't even call it a wave, but I would still be happy with the results.

I would definitely feel better. I would consider it a splash or a ripple. But even if I end up feeling that way, remembering Florida will happen and make me feel s****y again. That is, unless Nelson pulls off a miracle. As for the Governor's race, f*** Andrew Gillum. I don't think I even want him to be Governor anymore. It's not like I have to live in Florida. They deserve to live with another one of their mistakes for the next four years. Scott winning though, does affect me and the rest of the country, and it is driving me bonkers! It's like Scott is casting a cruciatus curse on me!

Dems only losing a seat or two in an extremely stacked Senate map, gaining 35-40 seats in an extremely gerrymandered House map, and gaining 7 governors is not a "ripple", lol. It's a wave.

My condition is basically Florida senate to be called a wave. Ik its a small margin but there is no reason a swing state senator should have lost in a wave.

[lfromnj]

If Democrats manage to take the Arizona senate seat and all of the outstanding California congressional districts...then I would say they had a very good midterm overall.  It certainly wasn't perfect and I probably wouldn't even call it a wave, but I would still be happy with the results.

I would definitely feel better. I would consider it a splash or a ripple. But even if I end up feeling that way, remembering Florida will happen and make me feel s****y again. That is, unless Nelson pulls off a miracle. As for the Governor's race, f*** Andrew Gillum. I don't think I even want him to be Governor anymore. It's not like I have to live in Florida. They deserve to live with another one of their mistakes for the next four years. Scott winning though, does affect me and the rest of the country, and it is driving me bonkers! It's like Scott is casting a cruciatus curse on me!

Dems only losing a seat or two in an extremely stacked Senate map, gaining 35-40 seats in an extremely gerrymandered House map, and gaining 7 governors is not a "ripple", lol. It's a wave.

My condition is basically Florida senate to be called a wave. Ik its a small margin but there is no reason a swing state senator should have lost in a wave.

Maybe the characterization of Florida as a swing state is becoming less valid.

Then again scott only won by 1 point in 2014 too.
Its just tough to make it out. It seems like national environment really does affect it much.

[lfromnj]

Looking at the House results, Amash's 55-43 margin is pretty underwhelming.  I get that Stabenow and Whitmer were at the top of the ticket, but in a pretty conservative district like this, Amash should have performed way better.

Is his #NeverTrump stance costing him votes?

I mean he won by 12 and trump only won the district by 9.He did fine enough for someone who didn't bother to campaign.

[lfromnj]

So even before the undervote, it's possible that there is still enough votes left in the state to get Nelson the 15k? The hand count should be very interesting...

Since Broward is essentially done, it's highly unlikely Scott has less than a 10K lead going into the recount. The current margin shouldn't change a whole lot based on what's out. There simply aren't that many provisionals (10K at most) and military/overseas ballots tend to be a wash. There might be a few ballots in Palm Beach left, but not very many.

Broward's votes are still MIA.

Dems trying to get false hope to win a florida recount again
lol