2020 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[lfromnj]

Golden running for reelection. This is like the 6th most 2016 Republican district and like the 3rd most Trumpy district that a Democrat currently holds.

[lfromnj]

Yeah its hilarious to compare MI 11th which is still a trump district that swung an incredible 1 point left in 2016 to IA 1st also a trump district that swung 20 points right.

[lfromnj]

Golden running for reelection rather than Senate is definitely good news for Democrats. I doubt he would have been the ideal Democrat to run against Collins, and he won’t be as easy to beat in ME-02 as many people are making it out to be.

Are you joking? So he can run in  a seat that voted for Trump by 10 points and voted for Shawn Moody? He's may as well start writing his concession speech. He would have  been able to prevent bleeding in rural areas that we need to win statewide. A normal "resistance" democrat will get walloped in rural areas.

He’s running in a district that voted for him and Angus King and Shawn Moody in the same year; and IIRC, Moody only narrowly carried it against a Democrat with little to no appeal to the district. While ME-02 is pretty clearly trending Republican, it has also been a fairly incumbent-friendly district for a long time now, which is an underrated reason why Poliquin barely lost it in a wave year and only after RCV. Even if we assume that Golden only has like a 35-40% chance of winning reelection (that’s probably being fairly generous to Republicans given how weak their bench appears to be here), that’s a lot better than the 15-20% chance you’d have of holding an open House seat without Golden. I also strongly doubt that Golden’s 2018 strategy in a congressional seat like ME-02 would have been easily replicable in a statewide race against someone like Collins. Would he have run as a moderate Democrat touting his bipartisanship and work for Collins in ME-02 and simultaneously as a progressive Democrat exposing Collins’s fake moderate image in ME-01?

I don't think Golden's doomed in 2020. But for him to win in 2020 will mean a Democrat is president which means he is doomed in 2022 ala Mcsally.

[lfromnj]

RRH out with new House ratings: https://rrhelections.com/index.php/2019/05/25/rrh-elections-may-2019-house-ratings/

They are way too optimistic on some newly blue seats reverting to form (GA-06, NJ-07) and overestimating Peterson’s and JVD’s position. Generally not like them to be Charlie Cook-tier

The mods are all Never Trumper/Trump skeptic elitists and in denial about the Trump era. They still believe that the GOP is still competitive in areas like Texas HD 134.

[lfromnj]

RRH out with new House ratings: https://rrhelections.com/index.php/2019/05/25/rrh-elections-may-2019-house-ratings/

They are way too optimistic on some newly blue seats reverting to form (GA-06, NJ-07) and overestimating Peterson’s and JVD’s position. Generally not like them to be Charlie Cook-tier

The mods are all Never Trumper/Trump skeptic elitists and in denial about the Trump era. They still believe that the GOP is still competitive in areas like Texas HD 134.

In fact - it is. HD-134 is represented by Republican Sarah Davis in legislature. It's another question - "which Republican can win HD-134"?

Im talking on a federal level. Clearly WV state house districts are still competetive.

[lfromnj]

Ok some ok news for D's

https://twitter.com/ActorAaronBooth/status/1134277888243580928

Still probably one of the easiest GOP Pick ups but the moronic GOP consulting class believes that GA 6th is much more winnable and will spend more money there than here.

[lfromnj]

What does the GOP bench look like here? Not that they need an A-lister to take on Peterson, but given the district’s conservative lean you’d think the GOP could find someone better than the some guy Peterson faced in 2016 and 2018.

Every state house seat besides the two near Clay/Norman.

[lfromnj]

Full article: Vulnerable Republicans move to the middle in 2019

Good to see them responding to electoral incentives, but unfortunately they'll probably go back to being 100% party-line hacks if the GOP is in the majority and their vote is actually needed.

To be fair, Greg Walden and Chris Smith aren't exactly in electoral danger.

Stefanik is also safe anyway.Its a trump +14 district and she won by 14 in a D wave year.

[lfromnj]

Nunez challenge

https://www.politico.com/story/2019/06/06/democratic-challenge-devin-nunes-2020-1355523

[lfromnj]

Finally the GOP is getting serious, instead of piddle paddling around in places like CA 25 and MN 2

https://twitter.com/KyleTrygstad/status/1139132345959759872

Safe D —-> Safe D

LOL. Cartwright isn't at Safe D. He's a Lean D at best(Im assuming a non wave year for Democrats in 2020. Of course if its a wave he is Likely/Safe D.

[lfromnj]

https://www.azcentral.com/story/news/politics/arizona/2019/06/12/former-staffers-arizona-rep-david-schweikert-staffers-describe-unrest-his-house-office/1432521001/

More news about Schweikert.

This is my call for the surprise race of 2020. Nothing big RN but I expect something to happen for some reason.Usually always some scandal incumbent.

[lfromnj]

https://www.echopress.com/news/government-and-politics/4621780-novak-runs-congress-7th-district

Military Veteran candidate runs for MN-7th .

Unless for some reason the NRCC feels like this is an unwinnable district and prefers winning VA 10th Peterson is almost DOA.

[lfromnj]

Its not the greatest but its only been like 70 days and it is more than O'Rourke did in the same period.

https://twitter.com/PatrickSvitek/status/1145789914627411971?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw...

A solid start.

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/PatrickSvitek/status/1145789914627411971

Already posted above.

[lfromnj]

Schilling could use the argument that its still the same region but Democrats gerrymandered his home district?

[lfromnj]

Waiting for Marchants numbers.

[lfromnj]

Cornyn raised 2.5 million and abbot raised an incredible 14 million.

[lfromnj]

I know next to nothing about fundraising, but isn't Golden's number on the weaker side? Or isn't it not that bad considering I assume the media market in ME-2 must be pretty cheap?

The latter.

[lfromnj]

Sebelius staffer Abbie Hodgson is IN for KS-02. Tough district but a strong candidate, and given Watkins is a disaster, I think it's worth keeping an eye on her. Likely R.

Safe R, really. If Paul Davis couldn't win this district in a D wave, I'm doubtful another Dem could in a more Republican year (at least in this district).

Not that it really matters, but did Kelly carry the district?

She did, but again using gubernatorial results to predict a congressional race is comparing apples to oranges.

Actually Kansas and  Oklahoma gubernatorials were pretty closely tied to the congressional races. The D candidates generally fell 10 points behind. This is basically why Yoder lost by so much in only a Clinton +1 district.

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/VApoliticalmeme/status/1153329471564464128

Could be nothing, could be something

Democrats be like Plz  be Wexton so the GOP can waste another 10 million.

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/VApoliticalmeme/status/1153329471564464128

Could be nothing, could be something

Democrats be like Plz  be Wexton so the GOP can waste another 10 million.

Speaking of Wexton, the GOP got a decent candidate up for the fight with Wexton. Too bad this seat is both moving to the left at the speed of light, and guaranteed to lose red areas like Fredrick and Warren in 2020 redistricting (Fair redistricting creates a third NOVA Dem seat in Fairfax+Loudoun, Dem Redistricting might get wirder but still ends up with a 60/40 clinton seat at minimun).

https://twitter.com/HotlineJosh/status/1153291575558103042

So if the GOP wants to sink another 10 mil, its on them.

If Democrats control redistricting why wouldn’t they just make four Dem NOVA seats? Keeping Wexton’s seat roughly as is allows them to make vA-01 a lot bluer and put the entirety of PWC in that seat

If Dems control redistricting they probably will go for 4 NOVA seats(actually 5 is pretty possible if Dems are willing to get ugly and not be in Titanium D districts) but if they pass a commission Wexton could be in a Trump +2 or 4 seat. However Whitman would get a Clinton +9 or +11.(Fairfax +arlington+Alexandria is just a bit more than 2 districts. If the commision decides to not combine Loudon and PWC you get a Trump seat from one of these.

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/VApoliticalmeme/status/1153329471564464128

Could be nothing, could be something

Democrats be like Plz  be Wexton so the GOP can waste another 10 million.

Speaking of Wexton, the GOP got a decent candidate up for the fight with Wexton. Too bad this seat is both moving to the left at the speed of light, and guaranteed to lose red areas like Fredrick and Warren in 2020 redistricting (Fair redistricting creates a third NOVA Dem seat in Fairfax+Loudoun, Dem Redistricting might get wirder but still ends up with a 60/40 clinton seat at minimun).

https://twitter.com/HotlineJosh/status/1153291575558103042

So if the GOP wants to sink another 10 mil, its on them.

If Democrats control redistricting why wouldn’t they just make four Dem NOVA seats? Keeping Wexton’s seat roughly as is allows them to make vA-01 a lot bluer and put the entirety of PWC in that seat

If Dems control redistricting they probably will go for 4 NOVA seats(actually 5 is pretty possible if Dems are willing to get ugly and not be in Titanium D districts) but if they pass a commission Wexton could be in a Trump +2 or 4 seat. However Whitman would get a Clinton +9 or +11.(Fairfax +arlington+Alexandria is just a bit more than 2 districts. If the commision decides to not combine Loudon and PWC you get a Trump seat from one of these.

Wait, what do you mean? It's pretty easy to get four NOVA Dem seats that went for Clinton if you keep VA-10 as is (Frederick+Clarke+Winchester+Loudoun+Reston/heavily Dem western Fairfax will be roughly a Congressional seat based on population growth). Arlington+Alexandria+remainder of Fairfax is two seats. That leaves VA-01 to take all of PWC, Manassas, MPC all the way out to Fredericksburg. Both VA-10 and VA-01 would in that redraw would have easily voted for Clinton and have only gotten bluer since then.

It isn't actually if you want to Limit county splits to minimum like a commission based map would do.



The inner nova Districts are obviously Titanium D. The yellow district is Clinton +11 but the red district is Trump +4.5. Redistricting should shed a little bit of the red parts of the district to make it around Trump +1 to Trump +3? The red district is trending D but not massively. Obama lost it by 2 points compared to Clintons loss of +4 so thats around a 3 point D trend compared to the current VA 10th 16 point D trend. So anyway Id call the red district a tossup district. Compared to the current situation of the two Titanium D districts in NOVA along with the Safe D VA 10th but Safe R Va 1st(Even Corey Stewart won it) it is an improvement map for Democrats but not a major one.

Edit: the red is actually Trump +4 because I took the wrong screenshot. The red districts fairfax portion should be moved north from 70 30 D territory to around 55 40 and would look less ugly and less like an obtrusion.

[lfromnj]

I’m not interested in the hypothetical commission unless and until that commission is actually established, which I’m skeptical it will be by 2021. I’m more interested in what a hypothetical D trifecta will do, and I’d guess they’d draw a 10th similar to yours but fewer of the deep red counties given population explosion

Im saying population growth would let the 10th shed a lot of those red counties that you have attached to it. Loudoun ballooned in population this decade and can support like 60-70% of the new 10th%

Loudon did grow but DRA virginia is 2016 Census estimates so 60% of the population trend has already been accounted for.  Actually just did some population calculations with 2019 data which is basically 2020 and you should get around a Trump +1.5 district by shedding around 80k people Trump +1 is probably what it should be. But You aren't getting 4 NOVA districts in a commission based map. Id say a commission as of now is 50/50. Again its not possible to have a 4th Safe D district in NOVA without cracking Fairfax.

[lfromnj]

I’m not interested in the hypothetical commission unless and until that commission is actually established, which I’m skeptical it will be by 2021. I’m more interested in what a hypothetical D trifecta will do, and I’d guess they’d draw a 10th similar to yours but fewer of the deep red counties given population explosion

Im saying population growth would let the 10th shed a lot of those red counties that you have attached to it. Loudoun ballooned in population this decade and can support like 60-70% of the new 10th%

Loudon did grow but DRA virginia is 2016 Census estimates so 60% of the population trend has already been accounted for.  Actually just did some population calculations with 2019 data which is basically 2020 and you should get around a Trump +1.5 district by shedding around 80k people Trump +1 is probably what it should be. But You aren't getting 4 NOVA districts in a commission based map. Id say a commission as of now is 50/50. Again its not possible to have a 4th Safe D district in NOVA without cracking Fairfax.

A Trump+1 Loudoun based seat will almost definitely be voting against him in 2020, and probably won’t even be close, so while it probably wouldn’t be Safe D starting out after redistricting, it’d probably have a bluish his to it, and will get harder and harder for the GOP to win as the decade passes on.

But again, I reject the premise that a commission will draw the map. That is pretty unlikely to happen unless VA Dems want to shoot themseves in the foot

But literally half the county would be rurals which are also Trending R. The district wouldnt be zooming left. Trump would probably lose it but in a D midterm it isn't safe at all lol. Also never underestimate a parties ability to shoot themselves in the foot. See Emmanuel Cleaver.

[lfromnj]

https://newjerseyglobe.com/congress/glen-rock-councilwoman-to-challenge-gottheimer-in-democratic-primary/
Plz dont. Anyway endorsing Njs best member of Congress for reelection.