Official 2022 Congressional Election Results Thread

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I’m almost positive it’s only a Presidential thing.

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Not to derail the thread, but PQG with an R-PA avatar? Truly there are interesting surprises in store today.

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"Tell me you've never followed a NV election without telling me you've never followed a NV election": The Thread

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Samuelsen says it's cumulative.

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https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1590042484041986050?s=20&t=PK7eqcIcFT7...

Extrapolating turnout from PA means Democrats are going to turn out in HUGE numbers!

This isn't a coherent way to think about the national picture.

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The Needle has returned.

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https://twitter.com/JohnRSamuelsen/status/1590053380961226752?t=csO5DUZ4VMT-myBe...

There's a typo in this tweet. Reps are at 49.2% - a drop, but not a precipitous one.

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So what are we thinking for senate/house based off of this?

We’re thinking IT’S TOO EARLY

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Dems might hold up better in white college areas, see NH and completely bomb in NV.

2022 - the actual realignment election

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That does it. I don't think any amount of drumbeating about not drawing sweeping conclusions from turnout reports hours before polls close will convince anyone. See you nerds at 7:00 PM EST.

Democrats are not turning out in urban cores, hide from it all you want that is a very bad sign and it's clear we've lost. The Guam flip is also indicative of an anti-democrat party enviorment given how democratic it normally is.

A lot of the urban data we have right now shows the exact opposite, but ok. Extrapolate away!

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With regards to the Guam thing, dismissing it out of hand is stupid. Guman is a weird strange place but it's not disconnected from the rest of american politics. People from Guam align democrat but it has a very strong military presecence and is embelmatic of the kind of minorities that are swining away from the democrats. Minorities that live in communities mostly dominated by people of the same race, with strong employment in law enforcment and military jobs similar to the RGV.

I think we can take the race in Guam as indiciative the republicans have been able to expand their appeale to these kind of minority communities and the RGV is going to trend away from the democrats.

The result out of Guam is split though?

The federal delegate result isn't. They voted their democrat out and that's indicative of how they feel regarding national politics not the local results.

You’re digging yourself into a hole of specificity. Chill.

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Regardless of how good and bad the night is - are we thinking it’s a near certainty Laxalt wins?

Tough to say. Nevada’s doing weird things with mail-in and drop-off votes this year, and we probably won’t know what’s up with them for a few days. It looks better for him than it did this morning, but I wouldn’t say it’s a near certainty.

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https://twitter.com/PatrickRuffini/status/1590070658532511744

At 12 PM, or at the end of the day?

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HASSAN SWEEP TIME TO EXTRAPOLATE

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Honestly, I think accepting the results now is the best way forward. That way you're prepared to recive them when they come and if you turn out to be wrong you just get a pleasant suprise instead of dread.

I think that is why most posters are inclined towards pessimism for whoever they support. Especially Dem posters, but also R posters to some degree.

There is reason to doom for Dems. We always do WORSE than the polls show. While Republicans frequently exceed expectations. GOP canidates can blunder all over the place with terrible moral failings and basically admit to things that would be political suicide for Dems - and get away with it.
You have Dem judges making sure Dems play fair - whole GOP judges allow Republicans to bulldoze our democracy …shall I go on?

Yes, remember when the Dems underperformed in Georgia last year?

Molinaro and Begich are looking forward to their re-elections tonight.

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Was that a server upgrade?

Let's hope so.  That was the most terrifying four minutes of my life!

Election's over, folks! Nothing to see here!

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https://twitter.com/Lily_PolisStan/status/1590103689301176320?t=YaIM09-fKzXlTQDb...

Mixed signals, as with every exit poll. Biden's approval rating is higher than you'd expect, for example.

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https://twitter.com/JohnRSamuelsen/status/1590104505907318785?s=20&t=lv5I7w7...

Call it copium if you must, but the numbers are there.

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NoVA on track for a 2021 redux

https://twitter.com/bluevirginia/status/1590098945581404162

Just because the topline turnout is similar doesn’t necessarily mean the results will be the same lol.

I seem to remember a thread on this very forum saying that persuasion, not turnout, made the difference in this year's specials. Hard to imagine that NOT impacting NoVA at least a little bit.

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Okay but based Virginia Beach now? Were the early DOA results a little much now?

https://twitter.com/tbonier/status/1590107558190383105?s=46&t=v3Ttg5tDPrsmHA...

Dooming OVER? ? ? ?

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26 Pages without a single election result lol.  Just a bunch of guys driving each other crazy.

We had Dixville Notch a few hours ago! Catch up!

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26 Pages without a single election result lol.  Just a bunch of guys driving each other crazy.

We had Dixville Notch a few hours ago! Catch up!

I guess you're technically correct, but wrong in spirit.

Won't be the last time, I'm sure.

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In politics, especially in the modern era, the lines between what people consider to be their “subjective” opinions versus “objective” fact are often very, very blurred.

My "subjective" opinion is that this is one of the most annoying possible ways you could be posting right now.

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My god

The Dobbs Effect is real

The blue wave is BACK

https://twitter.com/stevenportnoy/status/1590107477923622912?s=46&t=zW454TLs...

If true (big if), this would certainly explain the turnout we're seeing in Philadelphia County right now.

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The early election results ( and granted, they're still early ), they seem to be very mixed.

Great — even the ELECTION’S not gonna tell us much about the election!