2022 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

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FWIW, Civiqs has remained steady

https://twitter.com/DrewLinzer/status/1585671635851280385

How did their 2018 tracker look?

Hard to tell because they've scrubbed their results page, but this suggests it underestimated Dems a bit. (Although I remember them being one of the few to nail the Texas Senate race.)

https://twitter.com/markos/status/1265329307167014918

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https://twitter.com/greg_price11/status/1585708567344009216

Time to read the tea leaves, everyone.

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https://twitter.com/greg_price11/status/1585708567344009216

Time to read the tea leaves, everyone.

What seat is Schumer referring to at the beginning where he says "Looks like we're endanger with that seat. I thought we weren't, but it's close"? 

Could be Arizona? Either that or New Hampshire, but probably the former. It's tightened significantly over the last few weeks, and reports are that private polling is showing the same trend.

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I seriously doubt Schumer knows very much more than we do at this point.

Schumer has access to a much different set of polls than we do. (Remember how the Biden campaign said "we have polls showing races are closer than you'd think" and they turned out to be right?)

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Caveat on Nevada: turnout is VERY low at the moment, so it wouldn't take much to turn things around, especially if the rurals start picking up steam. But things do look good as of today.

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Caveat on Nevada: turnout is VERY low at the moment, so it wouldn't take much to turn things around, especially if the rurals start picking up steam. But things do look good as of today.

The rurals can only do much for Rs in NV...and AZ.

Depends on the turnout differential. Clark needs to come in with MUCH larger mail-in ballot numbers before I'm totally comfortable.

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Caveat on Nevada: turnout is VERY low at the moment, so it wouldn't take much to turn things around, especially if the rurals start picking up steam. But things do look good as of today.

The rurals can only do much for Rs in NV...and AZ.

Depends on the turnout differential. Clark needs to come in with MUCH larger mail-in ballot numbers before I'm totally comfortable.

One thing to remember, you can vote by mail for the next 12 days in NV counting today, early voting ends in 8. If trends hold Dems should dominate those last 4 days.

Thanks - excellent point!

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Boy, this place is getting worse and worse the closer election day gets. I understand emotions run high, but not everyone who disagrees with you is besmirching your honor or whatever. Chill out. We'll see what happens in under a week now.

But when you were right all along about early voting in Nevada, that gives you something to brag about at Thanksgiving dinner. 

I remember walking in to extended family Thanksgiving after the 2016 election and being greeted with just the words "bad decision." Not a great year!

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Everyone: noo not every race is a dead heat there is such thing as polarization noo
RCP: haha tossup go brr

https://twitter.com/ashleymoirDC/status/1588573078782894081

Based on WHAT?

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Let this remove any doubt that RCP is anything but a right-wing hack firm. This is bordering on Dick Morris levels of bad predictions.

I dunno, "Strongly Obama Arkansas" is pretty hard to beat.

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It’s definitely interesting how stable the online trackers like Civiqs and Morning Consult have been this cycle. Wonder what’s up with that?

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Does Data for Progress have any significant R house effect? Because a poll of this kind is concerning...GCB polls have been a big bright spot for Ds this cycle...

Hard to say. They’ve definitely been pretty right-leaning this cycle, and they whiffed the NY-19 special pretty hard (Molinaro +8, compared to the actual result of Ryan +3). But that could be a consistent house effect, or it could just be them being a bad pollster!

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Sabato/Crystal Ball released its final ratings-

https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/final-ratings-for-the-2022-election/

Those Senate ratings are baffling. CCM wins while Warnock loses on the night? Hard to see it happening.

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The language is a little more complicated, but I still read the implication that Walker could win on the night. And I don’t see that squaring with a CCM win.