538 model & poll tracker thread

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In other news: don’t look now, but Biden is back in the lead on their Texas polling aggregate...

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I don’t see how Silver can give Trump an almost 2/3rds chance to win Texas when the polling looks as bad for him as it does. Feels like he’s relying *way* too much on past fundamentals there.

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Meanwhile, gamblers on PredictIt has gone full MAGA and flipped Florida red.

If you're looking for a buying opportunity, now's the time.

https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/5544

This makes sense if you ignore literally every district-level poll we've gotten outside of Miami-Dade. Further proof that betting markets are ridiculous!

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So here's some weirdness from the negative state correlations side of things:

If Biden wins Georgia and North Carolina, he has a 16% chance of winning Mississippi.

If Biden wins Georgia, North Carolina, and Minnesota, he still has a 16% chance of winning Mississippi.

However, if Biden wins Georgia and North Carolina, but loses Minnesota, he suddenly has a 53% chance of winning Mississippi.

This one actually kind of makes sense — if Biden’s winning GA and NC but losing MN, something must have turbocharged black turnout nationwide.

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Worth noting that even after the Selzer poll, Biden is still at 90% to win. (And wait — if polls were “exactly as wrong as 2016,” wouldn’t Biden be winning Texas?)

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Tbh they probably just don’t want to say Biden is “clearly favored”

It's about math -- he was "clearly favored" earlier today and probably will be again once the Redfield & Wilton and Qriously polls get added in.